汤姆·李说

根据Fundstrat的研究负责人汤姆·李（Tom Lee）的说法，今年四月在股票市场的强劲反弹似乎很可能。

Optimism for a sharp rebound in the stock market this April seems highly likely, according to Fundstrat’s head of research, Tom Lee.

根据Fundstrat的研究负责人汤姆·李（Tom Lee）的说法，对今年四月在股票市场的急剧反弹的乐观情绪似乎很可能。

Speaking in a recent interview, he pointed to historical trends that suggest a swift recovery is on the horizon.

他在最近的一次采访中指出，历史趋势表明快速恢复即将来临。

One observation Lee highlighted was past market behavior, particularly events in early 2018. That period saw a sudden rise in the VIX (volatility index) and a stock market decline, likely fueled by a drop in investor sentiment and confidence.

李（Lee）强调的一项观察是过去的市场行为，尤其是2018年初的事件。该时期的VIX（波动性指数）突然上升，股市下跌，可能导致投资者的情绪和信心下降。

However, despite the pessimistic outlook, the market quickly bounced back, a pattern Lee believes is unfolding again now.

然而，尽管有悲观的前景，市场很快就反弹了，李的模式认为现在正在发生。

He also noted that a significant amount of cash—around $850 billion—has been moved into money market funds over the last year. In previous cycles, such large cash reserves have often flowed back into equities, fueling rallies.

他还指出，在过去的一年中，大量现金（8500亿美元）已转移到货币市场基金中。在以前的周期中，如此大的现金储备经常流回股票，加剧了集会。

Looking further into the year, he referenced past tax reforms that helped drive stock gains in 2017, suggesting that similar economic catalysts could support a bullish trend.

在这一年中，他提到了过去的税收改革，这有助于在2017年推动股票收益，这表明类似的经济催化剂可以支持看涨的趋势。

With much of the recent panic already playing out, Lee is confident that stocks will regain strength in early April. He sees the conditions as ripe for a V-shaped recovery—a pattern where markets rapidly reverse from losses to strong gains.

随着最近的大部分恐慌已经发挥，李充满信心，股票将在4月初恢复实力。他认为条件是V形恢复的成熟，这种模式从损失迅速逆转到强劲的收益。

The downturn earlier this month, which impacted both stocks and crypto, followed Donald Trump’s announcement of tariffs and his reluctance to dismiss the possibility of a recession.

在唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）宣布关税之后，本月早些时候影响了股票和加密货币的低迷，他不愿驳斥衰退的可能性。

However, if history repeats itself, Lee believes the market could be on the verge of a sharp turnaround.

但是，如果历史重演，李认为市场可能处于急剧状况的边缘。