XRP铰链的两种价格途径在未来几个月内对Altcoin的表现方式

最近对XRP/BTC对的Ichimoku云分析揭示了XRP的两种价格途径，这取决于Altcoin在未来几个月内对比特币的行为。

A recent Ichimoku Cloud analysis of the XRP/BTC pair by market analyst Dr. Cat has revealed two possible price paths for XRP in the coming months, both of which depend on how the altcoin behaves against Bitcoin.

市场分析师CAT博士对XRP/BTC对的最新Ichimoku云分析显示，在接下来的几个月中，XRP的两种可能的价格路径取决于Altcoin对比特币的行为。

According to the analysis, XRP could either face rejection in a major resistance zone and be unable to break it, leading to a local top, or it could experience a strong breakout after a year of price coiling. The analysis also identified two key time frames: the 3-month and 1-month XRP/BTC charts.

根据分析，XRP可以在主要的阻力区域面临拒绝，并且无法闯入它，导致当地顶部，或者在价格盘绕一年后可能会出现强烈的突破。该分析还确定了两个关键的时间范围：3个月和1个月的XRP/BTC图表。

On the broader 3-month chart, Dr. Cat highlighted a heavily congested resistance zone that XRP will struggle to overcome without proper timing. In particular, the Kijun Sen, a major Ichimoku equilibrium line, is presently acting as resistance. However, XRP faces an even worse roadblock from the large bearish TK gap, which represents the vertical distance between the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen. In the current setup, the Tenkan sits well below the Kijun, indicating bearish momentum and a lack of equilibrium.

在更广泛的3个月表上，Cat博士强调了一个充满拥挤的抵抗区，XRP将在没有适当时机的情况下难以克服。特别是，Kijun Sen是一条主要的Ichimoku平衡线，目前正充当阻力。但是，XRP面临着较大的看跌TK差距的障碍，这代表了Tenkan Sen和Kijun Sen.之间的垂直距离。

Moreover, the Chikou Span, which shows momentum by lagging 26 periods behind the current price, currently rests below prior candle bodies. This position indicates that historical price levels are also acting as resistance, further hindering XRP's progress.

此外，Chikou Span通过落后于当前价格的26个时期的势头，目前落后于先前的蜡烛尸体。该立场表明，历史价格水平也充当阻力，进一步阻碍了XRP的进步。

According to Dr. Cat, there is a 90% chance of rejection if XRP attempts to rally toward 0.00005147 BTC (or around 5200 satoshis) within the second quarter of 2025, particularly in June. For XRP to break past this level, it would require multiple quarterly candles, translating to at least a year or more of price coiling.

根据CAT博士的说法，如果XRP试图在2025年第二季度内朝着0.00005147 BTC（或大约5200 satoshis）集会，则有90％的拒绝机会，尤其是在6月。为了使XRP超过此水平，它将需要多个季度蜡烛，这将转化为至少一年或更长时间的价格盘绕。

However, if XRP fails to make a decisive move this month, the more probable event is not an outright price crash but a period of extended consolidation. Such coiling would allow the TK gap to close, with the Tenkan Sen gradually rising and the Kijun Sen flattening or falling. This would also permit the Chikou Span to separate from historical candle resistance, creating a more favorable breakout structure.

但是，如果XRP本月未能做出决定性的行动，那么更可能的事件不是彻底的价格崩溃，而是延长合并的时期。这种盘绕将使TK差距缩小，而Tenkan Sen逐渐上升，Kijun Sen扁平或下降。这也将使Chikou跨度与历史蜡烛抗性分开，从而产生更有利的突破结构。

On the 1-month XRP/BTC chart, Dr. Cat identified a similarly challenging resistance zone. Here, XRP is looking to push into a thick Kumo, or cloud, which acts as a price and momentum barrier. As of the time of reporting, XRP rests within this cloud, showing no signs of a clear breakout. Importantly, the upper boundary of this monthly Kumo aligns with the Kijun Sen from the 3-month chart, confirming the strength of this resistance region.

在1个月的XRP/BTC图中，Cat博士确定了一个类似挑战性的阻力区。在这里，XRP希望将其推入厚厚的kumo或云，这是价格和动量障碍。截至举报时，XRP放在这云中，没有明确突破的迹象。重要的是，本月kumo的上边界与3个月表的Kijun Sen保持一致，证实了该抵抗区域的强度。

Despite the immediate challenges, the monthly chart presents some hope. Specifically, the future section of the Kumo is thinning out toward the end of 2025. This suggests that XRP may find it easier to break through resistance in the fourth quarter.

尽管面临着直接的挑战，但每月图表还是有希望的。具体而言，Kumo的未来部分在2025年底之前正在稀疏。这表明XRP可能会发现在第四季度突破阻力更容易。

If XRP manages to break out of the Kumo in the fourth quarter and the price continues upwards, it could reach 12,000 satoshis (0.00012 BTC). Assuming Bitcoin reaches $250,000 in that same window, this would push XRP to $30. However, if Bitcoin is at $100K, then XRP would be at $12.

如果XRP设法在第四季度爆发了Kumo，并且价格持续上升，则可以达到12,000 satoshis（0.00012 BTC）。假设比特币在同一窗口中达到250,000美元，则将XRP提高到30美元。但是，如果比特币为$ 10万美元，则XRP为$ 12。

The analysis concludes that if the scenario plays out where we get a bitcoin price of $250,000 and an XRP breakout in the fourth quarter, then we could be looking at an XRP top of $30 or more. But if the breakout happens too early, such as in May or June, then we might see a local top around 5200 satoshis (0.000052 BTC), which would translate to a dollar value of $4.50 to $6 for the apex price.

分析得出的结论是，如果该方案在第四季度获得了25万美元的比特币价格和XRP突破的位置，那么我们可能会在30美元或以上的XRP顶部。但是，如果突破发生得太早，例如5月或6月，那么我们可能会看到5200个Satoshis（0.000052 BTC）的本地顶级，这将转化为Apex价格的美元价值4.50至6美元。

As of the time of writing, the XRP/BTC chart is at 0.00002245, with XRP trading for $2.12 and BTC at $94,570.

截至撰写本文时，XRP/BTC图表为0.00002245，XRP交易的价格为2.12美元，BTC的价格为94,570美元。