Two Price Paths for XRP Hinging on How the Altcoin Behaves Against Bitcoin in the Coming Months

A recent Ichimoku Cloud analysis of the XRP/BTC pair has revealed two price paths for XRP, hinging on how the altcoin behaves against Bitcoin in the coming months.

A recent Ichimoku Cloud analysis of the XRP/BTC pair by market analyst Dr. Cat has revealed two possible price paths for XRP in the coming months, both of which depend on how the altcoin behaves against Bitcoin.

According to the analysis, XRP could either face rejection in a major resistance zone and be unable to break it, leading to a local top, or it could experience a strong breakout after a year of price coiling. The analysis also identified two key time frames: the 3-month and 1-month XRP/BTC charts.

On the broader 3-month chart, Dr. Cat highlighted a heavily congested resistance zone that XRP will struggle to overcome without proper timing. In particular, the Kijun Sen, a major Ichimoku equilibrium line, is presently acting as resistance. However, XRP faces an even worse roadblock from the large bearish TK gap, which represents the vertical distance between the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen. In the current setup, the Tenkan sits well below the Kijun, indicating bearish momentum and a lack of equilibrium.

Moreover, the Chikou Span, which shows momentum by lagging 26 periods behind the current price, currently rests below prior candle bodies. This position indicates that historical price levels are also acting as resistance, further hindering XRP's progress.

According to Dr. Cat, there is a 90% chance of rejection if XRP attempts to rally toward 0.00005147 BTC (or around 5200 satoshis) within the second quarter of 2025, particularly in June. For XRP to break past this level, it would require multiple quarterly candles, translating to at least a year or more of price coiling.

However, if XRP fails to make a decisive move this month, the more probable event is not an outright price crash but a period of extended consolidation. Such coiling would allow the TK gap to close, with the Tenkan Sen gradually rising and the Kijun Sen flattening or falling. This would also permit the Chikou Span to separate from historical candle resistance, creating a more favorable breakout structure.

On the 1-month XRP/BTC chart, Dr. Cat identified a similarly challenging resistance zone. Here, XRP is looking to push into a thick Kumo, or cloud, which acts as a price and momentum barrier. As of the time of reporting, XRP rests within this cloud, showing no signs of a clear breakout. Importantly, the upper boundary of this monthly Kumo aligns with the Kijun Sen from the 3-month chart, confirming the strength of this resistance region.

Despite the immediate challenges, the monthly chart presents some hope. Specifically, the future section of the Kumo is thinning out toward the end of 2025. This suggests that XRP may find it easier to break through resistance in the fourth quarter.

If XRP manages to break out of the Kumo in the fourth quarter and the price continues upwards, it could reach 12,000 satoshis (0.00012 BTC). Assuming Bitcoin reaches $250,000 in that same window, this would push XRP to $30. However, if Bitcoin is at $100K, then XRP would be at $12.

The analysis concludes that if the scenario plays out where we get a bitcoin price of $250,000 and an XRP breakout in the fourth quarter, then we could be looking at an XRP top of $30 or more. But if the breakout happens too early, such as in May or June, then we might see a local top around 5200 satoshis (0.000052 BTC), which would translate to a dollar value of $4.50 to $6 for the apex price.

As of the time of writing, the XRP/BTC chart is at 0.00002245, with XRP trading for $2.12 and BTC at $94,570.