XRP鉸鏈的兩種價格途徑在未來幾個月內對Altcoin的表現方式

最近對XRP/BTC對的Ichimoku雲分析揭示了XRP的兩種價格途徑，這取決於Altcoin在未來幾個月內對比特幣的行為。

A recent Ichimoku Cloud analysis of the XRP/BTC pair by market analyst Dr. Cat has revealed two possible price paths for XRP in the coming months, both of which depend on how the altcoin behaves against Bitcoin.

市場分析師CAT博士對XRP/BTC對的最新Ichimoku雲分析顯示，在接下來的幾個月中，XRP的兩種可能的價格路徑取決於Altcoin對比特幣的行為。

According to the analysis, XRP could either face rejection in a major resistance zone and be unable to break it, leading to a local top, or it could experience a strong breakout after a year of price coiling. The analysis also identified two key time frames: the 3-month and 1-month XRP/BTC charts.

根據分析，XRP可以在主要的阻力區域面臨拒絕，並且無法闖入它，導致當地頂部，或者在價格盤繞一年後可能會出現強烈的突破。該分析還確定了兩個關鍵的時間範圍：3個月和1個月的XRP/BTC圖表。

On the broader 3-month chart, Dr. Cat highlighted a heavily congested resistance zone that XRP will struggle to overcome without proper timing. In particular, the Kijun Sen, a major Ichimoku equilibrium line, is presently acting as resistance. However, XRP faces an even worse roadblock from the large bearish TK gap, which represents the vertical distance between the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen. In the current setup, the Tenkan sits well below the Kijun, indicating bearish momentum and a lack of equilibrium.

在更廣泛的3個月表上，Cat博士強調了一個充滿擁擠的抵抗區，XRP將在沒有適當時機的情況下難以克服。特別是，Kijun Sen是一條主要的Ichimoku平衡線，目前正充當阻力。但是，XRP面臨著較大的看跌TK差距的障礙，這代表了Tenkan Sen和Kijun Sen.之間的垂直距離。

Moreover, the Chikou Span, which shows momentum by lagging 26 periods behind the current price, currently rests below prior candle bodies. This position indicates that historical price levels are also acting as resistance, further hindering XRP's progress.

此外，Chikou Span通過落後於當前價格的26個時期的勢頭，目前落後於先前的蠟燭屍體。該立場表明，歷史價格水平也充當阻力，進一步阻礙了XRP的進步。

According to Dr. Cat, there is a 90% chance of rejection if XRP attempts to rally toward 0.00005147 BTC (or around 5200 satoshis) within the second quarter of 2025, particularly in June. For XRP to break past this level, it would require multiple quarterly candles, translating to at least a year or more of price coiling.

根據CAT博士的說法，如果XRP試圖在2025年第二季度內朝著0.00005147 BTC（或大約5200 satoshis）集會，則有90％的拒絕機會，尤其是在6月。為了使XRP超過此水平，它將需要多個季度蠟燭，這將轉化為至少一年或更長時間的價格盤繞。

However, if XRP fails to make a decisive move this month, the more probable event is not an outright price crash but a period of extended consolidation. Such coiling would allow the TK gap to close, with the Tenkan Sen gradually rising and the Kijun Sen flattening or falling. This would also permit the Chikou Span to separate from historical candle resistance, creating a more favorable breakout structure.

但是，如果XRP本月未能做出決定性的行動，那麼更可能的事件不是徹底的價格崩潰，而是延長合併的時期。這種盤繞將使TK差距縮小，而Tenkan Sen逐漸上升，Kijun Sen扁平或下降。這也將使Chikou跨度與歷史蠟燭抗性分開，從而產生更有利的突破結構。

On the 1-month XRP/BTC chart, Dr. Cat identified a similarly challenging resistance zone. Here, XRP is looking to push into a thick Kumo, or cloud, which acts as a price and momentum barrier. As of the time of reporting, XRP rests within this cloud, showing no signs of a clear breakout. Importantly, the upper boundary of this monthly Kumo aligns with the Kijun Sen from the 3-month chart, confirming the strength of this resistance region.

在1個月的XRP/BTC圖中，Cat博士確定了一個類似挑戰性的阻力區。在這裡，XRP希望將其推入厚厚的kumo或云，這是價格和動量障礙。截至舉報時，XRP放在這雲中，沒有明確突破的跡象。重要的是，本月kumo的上邊界與3個月表的Kijun Sen保持一致，證實了該抵抗區域的強度。

Despite the immediate challenges, the monthly chart presents some hope. Specifically, the future section of the Kumo is thinning out toward the end of 2025. This suggests that XRP may find it easier to break through resistance in the fourth quarter.

儘管面臨著直接的挑戰，但每月圖表還是有希望的。具體而言，Kumo的未來部分在2025年底之前正在稀疏。這表明XRP可能會發現在第四季度突破阻力更容易。

If XRP manages to break out of the Kumo in the fourth quarter and the price continues upwards, it could reach 12,000 satoshis (0.00012 BTC). Assuming Bitcoin reaches $250,000 in that same window, this would push XRP to $30. However, if Bitcoin is at $100K, then XRP would be at $12.

如果XRP設法在第四季度爆發了Kumo，並且價格持續上升，則可以達到12,000 satoshis（0.00012 BTC）。假設比特幣在同一窗口中達到250,000美元，則將XRP提高到30美元。但是，如果比特幣為$ 10萬美元，則XRP為$ 12。

The analysis concludes that if the scenario plays out where we get a bitcoin price of $250,000 and an XRP breakout in the fourth quarter, then we could be looking at an XRP top of $30 or more. But if the breakout happens too early, such as in May or June, then we might see a local top around 5200 satoshis (0.000052 BTC), which would translate to a dollar value of $4.50 to $6 for the apex price.

分析得出的結論是，如果該方案在第四季度獲得了25萬美元的比特幣價格和XRP突破的位置，那麼我們可能會在30美元或以上的XRP頂部。但是，如果突破發生得太早，例如5月或6月，那麼我們可能會看到5200個Satoshis（0.000052 BTC）的本地頂級，這將轉化為Apex價格的美元價值4.50至6美元。

As of the time of writing, the XRP/BTC chart is at 0.00002245, with XRP trading for $2.12 and BTC at $94,570.

截至撰寫本文時，XRP/BTC圖表為0.00002245，XRP交易的價格為2.12美元，BTC的價格為94,570美元。