中期大选前炒作将比特币（BTC）退回$ 97,000

到美国中期选举的尘埃落定时，比特币（BTC）已经反弹了97,000美元

SINGAPORE, May 8, 2025 /CNW / -- is a flagship market insights column created by HTX, exploring global macro trends, key economic indicators, and major developments across the crypto industry. In a world brimming with volatility, HTX DeepThink aims to help readers "Find Order in Chaos."

新加坡，2025年5月8日 / cnw / - 是由HTX创建的旗舰市场见解列，探索了全球宏观趋势，主要的经济指标以及整个加密货币行业的主要发展。在一个充满波动的世界中，HTX DeepThink旨在帮助读者“在混乱中找到秩序”。

This week: What does Trump's emerging token plan mean for crypto markets? Why is the Fed holding rates steady? Behind Bitcoin's rebound, are hidden risks lurking? Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) from HTX Research breaks it all down.

本周：特朗普的新兴代币计划对加密货币市场意味着什么？美联储的持有利率为什么稳定？在比特币的反弹背后，隐藏的风险潜伏了吗？来自HTX研究的Chloe（@chloetalk1）将其全部崩溃。

Trump Media Group's Utility Token: A Potential Shift in U.S. Equity Tokenization

特朗普媒体集团的公用事业令牌：美国股权令牌的潜在转变

On April 30, Trump Media & Technology Group announced it would collaborate with the Truth digital wallet to launch a new utility token called DJT. Initially, DJT will facilitate payments for the Truth+ subscription service, with plans to expand its utility across the Truth ecosystem.

4月30日，特朗普媒体和技术集团宣布将与真相数字钱包合作，推出一个名为DJT的新实用程序令牌。最初，DJT将促进对真相+订阅服务的付款，并计划在真相生态系统中扩展其实用性。

It's the first time a publicly listed U.S. media company is launching a utility token tied to a real-world product ecosystem, signifying a historic convergence between traditional equities and on-chain asset formats. Although the team has yet to announce a release date, blockchain platform, or tokenomics, the rollout appears to follow Trump's classic strategy: hype first, details later.

这是一家公开列出的美国媒体公司首次推出与现实世界生态系统相关的公用事业令牌，这意味着传统股票与链上资产格式之间的历史性融合。尽管该团队尚未宣布发布日期，区块链平台或代币学，但推出似乎遵循特朗普的经典策略：首先炒作，稍后的细节。

DJT is hitting the market at just the right moment as memecoin mania is cooling and narratives are shifting toward utility and payment integration. Similar to HTX's recent listing of WLFI's USD1, demand for "practical crypto assets" is surging. DJT combines powerful political branding with real ecosystem support, offering long-term value potential far beyond that of short-lived meme-driven tokens.

随着Memecoin Mania的冷却，DJT在正确的时刻上市，并且叙述正在转移到公用事业和付款整合。与HTX最近对WLFI USD1的清单类似，对“实用加密资产”的需求正在激增。 DJT将强大的政治品牌与真正的生态系统支持相结合，提供的长期价值潜在的潜力远远超出了短暂的模因驱动的代币。

U.S.-China Trade Talks: A Temporary Easing Amidst Persistent Tensions

美国 - 中国贸易谈判：在持续的紧张局势中暂时放松

This weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant and Trade Representative Jamison Greer will meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Geneva. This meeting, the first high-level U.S.-China trade talks since heightened tensions in spring 2025, signals a potential diplomatic thaw.

这个周末，美国财政部长斯科特·贝桑特（Scott Besant）和贸易代表贾米森·格里尔（Jamison Greer）将在日内瓦与中国副总理He Lifeng会面。自2025年春季紧张局势加剧以来，这次会议是第一次高级美国 - 中国贸易谈判，这标志着潜在的外交解冻。

Although both sides still dispute who initiated the talks, the meeting alone sends a strong signal of reengagement and diplomatic thawing. With tariffs at historic highs, markets are interpreting the summit as a short-term de-escalation of geopolitical risks—sparking a relief rally in risk assets.

尽管双方仍然对发起会谈的人提出异议，但仅会议就会发出强烈的重新参与和外交解冻的信号。随着历史高处的关税，市场将峰会解释为地缘政治风险的短期降级，这是风险资产中的救济集会。

Following the news, Bitcoin rose by approximately 3.6%, briefly surpassing $97,000. This reflects how sensitive capital flows remain to macro-level easing signals. While structural differences between the two nations are far from resolved, the current window of policy détente may offer a short-term liquidity boost for digital assets, gold, and tech stocks.

新闻后，比特币上涨了约3.6％，短暂超过了97,000美元。这反映了敏感的资本流如何保持到宏观宽敞的宽松信号。尽管两国之间的结构性差异远未解决，但当前的政策窗口可能会为数字资产，黄金和技术股票提供短期流动性的提升。

Powell Throws : "Now Is Not the Time to Cut Rates"

鲍威尔投掷：“现在不是降低费率的时候”

On May 8, the Fed held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% for the third consecutive meeting. While it was widely expected, Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a noticeably more cautious tone during the press conference:

5月8日，联邦连续第三次会议将利率稳定为4.25％–4.50％。虽然众所周知，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在新闻发布会上提出了更加谨慎的基调：

The Fed is currently caught in a "dual bind": on one hand, disinflation has stalled, with PCE and CPI both above the 2% target. On the other, the central bank's fiscal position is deteriorating. A 25–30 bps rate cut could shave $20 billion off annual income, further reducing remittances to the Treasury and raising concerns over the Fed's policy independence.

美联储目前被“双重结合”捕获：一方面，停滞停滞了，PCE和CPI都高于2％的目标。另一方面，中央银行的财政状况正在恶化。削减25-30个基点的税率可以削减200亿美元的年收入，进一步减少汇款到财政部，并提出对美联储独立性的担忧。

As a result, despite markets currently pricing in three rate cuts in 2025, the Fed is more likely to take a "data-driven, delayed transition" approach.

结果，尽管市场目前在2025年以3次降低价格定价，但美联储更有可能采用“数据驱动，延迟的过渡”方法。

Bitcoin's Market Dynamics: Macroeconomic Data Will Dictate Direction

比特币的市场动态：宏观经济数据将决定方向

Despite BTC rebounding to around $99,000 on geopolitical and monetary optimism, the options market is not confirming a strong directional bias. Deribit data shows implied volatility on June and July calls rising only modestly, while 25d risk reversals remain neutral to slightly bearish, and skew curves are relatively flat. Notably, large Gamma exposures are clustered around the $95,000–$100,000 range, indicating that BTC is currently trapped in a "high-volatility, low-conviction" zone awaiting macro catalysts.

尽管BTC在地缘政治和货币乐观上反弹至99,000美元，但期权市场并未证实强烈的方向偏见。 deribit数据显示，六月和7月份的隐含波动率仅适度上升，而25D风险逆转仍然中性至略微看跌，并且偏斜曲线相对平坦。值得注意的是，大型伽玛的暴露量被聚集在$ 95,000- $ 100,000的范围内，这表明BTC目前被困在等待宏催化剂的“高挥发性，低定位”区域中。

If CPI and jobs data for May–June remain hot, the Fed may push back on rate cut expectations—risking a BTC pullback. Conversely, if inflation cools and unemployment ticks up, Powell may pivot dovishly, providing a green light for BTC to break out of its volatility compression range and resume its bullish trend.

如果CPI和5月 - 6月的工作数据仍然很热，则美联储可能会推迟降低速率的期望，这会使BTC回调危险。相反，如果通货膨胀降温和失业率，鲍威尔（Powell）可能会偏爱，为BTC提供了绿灯，以突破其波动性压缩范围并恢复其看涨趋势。

*The above content is not an investment advice and does not constitute any offer or solicitation to offer or recommendation of any investment product.

*上述内容不是投资建议，也不构成任何要约或征集的报价或建议。

About HTX Research

关于HTX研究

HTX Research is the dedicated research arm of HTX Group, responsible for conducting in-depth analyses, producing comprehensive reports, and delivering expert evaluations

HTX Research是HTX集团的专门研究部门，负责进行深入分析，进行全面报告并提供专家评估