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根据比特币储备监护仪的说法,有20个州有待定的战略比特币储备(SBR)立法。就像这些努力一样看似,他们可能被参议员辛西娅·卢米斯(Cynthia Lummis)推动的席卷联邦框架所掩盖
Twenty states have pending Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) legislation, according to the Bitcoin Reserve Monitor. These efforts, while noteworthy, may be overshadowed by a broader federal framework being pushed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, the new head of the Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets.
根据比特币储备监护仪的说法,二十个州有待定的战略比特币储备金(SBR)立法。这些努力虽然值得注意,但可能会被参议员辛西娅·卢米斯(Cynthia Lummis)推动的更广泛的联邦框架,这是银行业数字资产小组委员会的新负责人。
After 16 years of speculation, experimentation, and blockchain calamities, Bitcoin appears to be on the cusp of a major shift in perception. Bitcoin’s inflation rate is already below 1%, and its 21 million BTC scarcity serves as a bulwark against the inevitable erosion of currency by the world’s central banks.
经过16年的猜测,实验和区块链灾难,比特币似乎处于感知重大转变的风口浪尖上。比特币的通货膨胀率已经低于1%,其2100万个BTC稀缺性是反对世界央行不可避免的货币侵蚀的堡垒。
Perhaps most importantly, Bitcoin’s ledger can be readily verified by anyone, unlike gold reserves. These and other factors position Bitcoin as a premiere retirement asset, one that is highly resistant to tampering by central planners.
也许最重要的是,与黄金储备不同,任何人都可以很容易地验证比特币的分类帐。这些和其他因素将比特币定位为首要退休资产,它高度抵抗中央计划者的篡改。
But what would leveraging Bitcoin for retirement actually look like? First, we need to consider the significance of BSR being discussed at such a high level.
但是,利用比特币的退休实际上会是什么样?首先,我们需要考虑在如此高的水平上讨论BSR的重要性。
BSR: The Final Perceptual Push?
BSR:最终的感知推动?
At the core of human structure and function lies trust. It underpins interpersonal relations and large-scale societal systems. This is why narrative control, recently exposed by Elon Musk’s DOGE going through USAID funding, is so critical for governance systems, no matter how they are labeled.
人类结构和功能的核心是信任。它是人际关系和大规模社会系统的基础。这就是为什么埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)的总督通过美国国际开发署(USAID)资助的叙事控制对治理体系至关重要的原因,无论它们如何被标记。
While highly precious, trust is a fungible resource. For the purpose of social stability, if trust in fakery is achieved, it is as valuable as trust in truth. However, the former type of trust lacks resilience, necessitating ever-escalating levers of course. In turn, this makes managed trust more fragile.
虽然高度珍贵,但信任是一种可利用的资源。出于社会稳定的目的,如果实现了对伪造的信任,那就像对真理的信任一样有价值。但是,前者的信任类型缺乏韧性,当然需要不断提高杠杆。反过来,这使托管信任更加脆弱。
In contrast to managed trust, we have Bitcoin as a trustless system. Paradoxically, Bitcoin represents the highest and most resilient form of trust management because it minimizes subjective trust while maximizing objective truth through its cryptography and proof-of-work mechanism.
与托管信任相反,我们将比特币作为一种无信任的系统。矛盾的是,比特币代表了信任管理的最高和最有弹性的形式,因为它可以最大程度地减少主观信任,同时通过其加密术和工作证明机制最大化客观真理。
At a glance, this would make Bitcoin the obvious choice as a store of value. However, surveys consistently show that older people are less trusting of Bitcoin and digital assets in general.
乍一看,这将使比特币成为一个价值存储的明显选择。但是,调查始终表明,一般来说,老年人对比特币和数字资产的信任程度较低。
2023 Voice of the Investor study. Image credit: Morningstar
2023年投资者研究的声音。图片来源:晨星
Why is this the case? Why would people with greater experience be less trustful of the highest form of trust management like Bitcoin? Wouldn’t they welcome such major innovation?
为什么这样?为什么经验丰富的人们对比特币等最高信任管理形式的信任不那么信任?他们不是欢迎如此重大的创新吗?
The reason is that reputational signaling overrides technical understanding. For most people, technical understanding is not even attempted without the social push. In other words, for something to be adopted and integrated, it has to be sanctified by authority figures, lest it be confined to the fringes.
原因是声誉信号传导覆盖了技术理解。对于大多数人来说,没有社会推动就不会尝试技术理解。换句话说,要采用和整合某些东西,它必须由权威人物成圣,以免将其限制在边缘。
The older demographic, specifically, relies more on “greater reputation-related activity in mentalizing/memory areas when making their decisions,” as shown by computational modeling in a 2023 study titled Age-related Differences in the Social Associative Learning of Trust Information.
较旧的人群,具体来说,更多地取决于“做出决策时在心理化/记忆领域中更大的与声誉相关的活动”,如2023年的一项研究中的计算建模所示,标题为“与年龄相关的差异”,这是信任信息的社会协会学习。
To put it simply, for the older generation, the lowest common denominator mainstream media serves as the primary purveyor and sanctifier of Bitcoin information. However, because mainstream media is closely interwoven with the government, as the DOGE-powered revelations indicate, the sanctification process begins and ends with the government.
简而言之,对于老年一代来说,最低的共同点主流媒体是比特币信息的主要供应商和神圣者。但是,由于主流媒体与政府紧密相互交织,正如诺斯驱动的启示所表明的那样,成圣过程始于政府并结束。
This is why the potential Bitcoin Strategic Reserve is such a monumental threshold. It would signal trust in Bitcoin from the very top, which would then trickle down to sanctification layers that provide cues to the older demographic. Even if MSM is hostile to the Trump admin, the existence of BSR would shift the tone of Bitcoin coverage forever.
这就是为什么潜在的比特币战略储备是如此巨大的门槛。它将表明从最顶部对比特币的信任,然后将其滴入成圣层,从而为较旧的人群提供线索。即使MSM对特朗普管理员有敌意,BSR的存在也会永远改变比特币覆盖范围。
As such, BSR should be understood as the final perceptual push that changes the Bitcoin landscape. The implications are already apparent.
因此,应该将BSR理解为改变比特币景观的最终感知推动力。含义已经很明显。
Boomers vs Zoomers: Holders vs Strivers
婴儿潮一代与Zoomers:持有人与弹力
Just as surveys show that younger generations are more likely to participate in digital assets, they also show that Gen Z has the least expectations for homeownership. This is a major generational cleavage, effectively burying the so-called “American Dream.” But is that really the case going forward?
正如调查表明,年轻一代更有可能参与数字资产一样,他们还表明,Z世代对房屋所有权的期望最低。这是一个主要的世代乳沟,有效地掩埋了所谓的“美国梦”。但这真的是事实吗?
What if BSR establishes new social signaling for the baby boomer generation? In that scenario, boomers would serve as (1946 – 1964) massive holders of wealth. Outpacing both GenX (1965 -1980) and Millennials (1981 -1996), boomers hold an estimated $78.1 trillion, or 52% of US net wealth as of 2023.
如果BSR为婴儿潮一代建立新的社会信号怎么办?在这种情况下,婴儿潮一代将成为(1946年至1964年)的大量财富持有者。 Boomers超过Genx(1965 -1980)和千禧一代(1981 -1996),据估计,截至2023年,美国净财富的估计占78.1万亿美元。
On average, baby boomers have a net worth of $2.31 million, according to Terry Rawnsley, KPMG Urban Economist. In contrast, GenX has an average net worth of $1.88 million, Millennials at $757,000, while Gen Z is at the bottom of the generational pile at $96,000.
毕马威(KPMG Urban)经济学家特里·拉恩斯利(Terry Rawnsley)表示,平均而言,婴儿潮一代的净资产为231万美元。相比之下,Genx的平均净资产为188万美元,千禧一代为757,000美元,而Z代的世代底部为96,000美元。
If boomers take the reputational cue from BSR, even a small fraction of capital inflows into Bitcoin, custodial or non-custodial, would drastically shift BTC price. Wealth funds have already suggested above 1% BTC allocation
如果Boomers从BSR那里获得声誉提示,即使是一小部分资本流入到比特币,托管或非监测的情况下,也会大大转移BTC的价格。财富基金已经提出了1%以上的BTC分配
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