甲烷排放量比以往任何时候都增长得更快

本周早些时候在《环境研究快报》上发表的一篇透视文章以及《地球系统科学数据》中的数据显示，过去五年来，地球大气中的甲烷浓度一直在以创纪录的速度上升。

Climate change is a pressing issue, and its effects are being felt worldwide. As we reported earlier this year, climate change made the summer of 2024 the hottest on record globally and for Europe. This calls for efforts to stabilize the climate by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, benefitting both the climate and our health.

气候变化是一个紧迫的问题，其影响遍及全世界。正如我们今年早些时候报道的那样，气候变化使 2024 年夏季成为全球和欧洲有记录以来最热的夏季。这就需要努力通过减少温室气体排放来稳定气候，从而使气候和我们的健康受益。

Greenhouse gasses are those gasses that trap heat in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the prominent of these gases and is released by as a result of burning fossil fuels like coal, natural gas, and oil as well as trees and solid waste and as a result of certain chemical reactions such as cement production.

温室气体是那些在大气中吸收热量的气体。二氧化碳 (CO2) 是这些气体中的主要气体，是由于燃烧煤炭、天然气和石油等化石燃料以及树木和固体废物以及水泥生产等某些化学反应而释放的。

Another example of greenhouse gas is nitrous oxide (N2O). It is emitted during agricultural and industrial activities during the treatment of wastewater and the combustion of fossil fuels. Fluorinated gasses, meanwhile, are emitted from a variety of household and commercial applications.

温室气体的另一个例子是一氧化二氮（N2O）。它是在农业和工业活动废水处理和化石燃料燃烧过程中排放的。与此同时，各种家庭和商业应用都会排放氟化气体。

Methane (CH4), on the other hand, is emitted during the production and transport of oil, natural gas, and coal. However, a vast majority of CH4 emissions actually come from human activities or “anthropogenic” sources like landfills, land use, livestock, and other agricultural practices. Natural sources like termites and wetlands, too, are also responsible for CH4 emissions.

另一方面，甲烷 (CH4) 是在石油、天然气和煤炭的生产和运输过程中排放的。然而，绝大多数 CH4 排放实际上来自人类活动或“人为”来源，如垃圾填埋场、土地使用、牲畜和其他农业实践。白蚁和湿地等自然来源也是甲烷排放的原因。

Now, let's take a closer look at methane emissions, which are rising globally and presenting a major obstacle to solving the climate change problem.

现在，让我们仔细看看甲烷排放量，全球范围内的甲烷排放量正在上升，并成为解决气候变化问题的主要障碍。

Methane Emissions Rising Faster than Ever

甲烷排放量比以往任何时候都增长得更快

A perspective article published earlier this week in Environmental Research Letters, alongside data in Earth System Science Data, revealed that concentrations of methane in Earth's atmosphere have been rising at a record speed over the past five years.

本周早些时候在《环境研究快报》上发表的一篇透视文章以及《地球系统科学数据》中的数据显示，过去五年来，地球大气中的甲烷浓度一直在以创纪录的速度上升。

The papers are the work of the Global Carbon Project, an initiative tracking greenhouse gas emissions worldwide.

这些论文是全球碳项目的成果，该项目是一项追踪全球温室气体排放的倡议。

While over 150 countries have vowed to reduce methane emissions by 30% this decade under the Global Methane Pledge, that hasn't really been happening. This global commitment was launched in 2021 by the EU and the US.

尽管 150 多个国家已承诺根据全球甲烷承诺在本十年内将甲烷排放量减少 30%，但这一目标并未真正实现。这项全球承诺由欧盟和美国于 2021 年发起。

On the contrary, global methane emissions—two-thirds of which now come from human activities, including agriculture, fossil fuel use, landfills, and other waste—are actually rising faster than ever.

相反，全球甲烷排放量（其中三分之二现在来自人类活动，包括农业、化石燃料使用、垃圾填埋场和其他废物）实际上比以往任何时候都增长得更快。

The trend “cannot continue if we are to maintain a habitable climate,” wrote the researchers in the paper.

研究人员在论文中写道，“如果我们要维持适宜居住的气候，这种趋势就不可能持续下去”。

Atmospheric concentrations of CH4 are currently more than 2.6x higher than it was in pre-industrial times. In fact, it is right now the highest they've been in at least 800,000 years.

目前大气中 CH4 浓度比工业化前时期高出 2.6 倍多。事实上，目前这是至少 80 万年来的最高水平。

The trajectory of rising methane emission rates is the most extreme one used by the world's leading climate scientists in emission scenarios. At this rate, it would lead to global warming above 5 degrees Fahrenheit or 3 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.

甲烷排放率上升的轨迹是世界领先的气候科学家在排放情景中使用的最极端的轨迹。按照这个速度，到本世纪末，全球变暖将超过 5 华氏度或 3 摄氏度。

While methane is a short-lived greenhouse gas, as we noted above, it is highly potent, making it a prime target for limiting global warming in the near term.

正如我们上面所指出的，虽然甲烷是一种短暂的温室气体，但它的威力很强，使其成为短期内限制全球变暖的主要目标。

As a result, there has been a growing policy focus on methane emission reduction, but that hasn't really had any effect, as the total annual methane emissions have actually increased by 20% over the past two decades. Human contribution to the same has been the most at about 18% while natural sources, mostly from wetlands, only increased by 2% in two decades.

因此，政策越来越关注甲烷减排，但这并没有真正产生任何效果，因为过去二十年每年甲烷排放总量实际上增加了 20%。人类对此的贡献最大，约为 18%，而自然资源（主要来自湿地）在二十年来仅增加了 2%。

The 61 million-ton increase in CH₄ emissions has been primarily driven by oil and gas production and use, along with coal mining, whose emissions rose by 33%. Decomposing food and organic waste in landfills saw a 30% rise, while emissions from agriculture increased by 14%. The biggest human-connected source of methane emissions, Jackson noted, is cows.

CH₄排放量增加了6100万吨，主要是由石油和天然气的生产和使用以及煤炭开采造成的，煤炭开采的排放量增加了33%。垃圾填埋场分解的食物和有机废物增加了 30%，而农业排放量增加了 14%。杰克逊指出，与人类相关的最大甲烷排放源是奶牛。

Who's Leading the Rising CH4 Emission

谁在引领 CH4 排放量上升

When it comes to countries that are contributing the most to methane emitters, China (16%) ranks first.

在甲烷排放量最大的国家中，中国（16%）排名第一。

As the lead author of the Earth System Science Data paper, Marielle Saunois of the Université Paris-Saclay in France noted the largest regional increases in CH4 emission comes from China and Southeast Asia.

作为地球系统科学数据论文的主要作者，法国巴黎萨克雷大学的 Marielle Saunois 指出，CH4 排放量增幅最大的地区来自中国和东南亚。

A separate study by Global Energy Monitor (GEM) recently warned that China's expansion of coal mines could further increase its methane emissions and threaten climate targets.

全球能源监测（GEM）最近的另一项研究警告称，中国煤矿的扩张可能会进一步增加甲烷排放量并威胁气候目标。

In 2023, China's coal production reached a record 4.7 billion tonnes, about 50% of global output. Now, the country is planning a project to increase production capacity by 1.2 billion tonnes annually. This expansion can increase methane emissions by 10 million tonnes.

2023年，中国煤炭产量达到创纪录的47亿吨，约占全球产量的50%。目前，国家正在规划年产能12亿吨的增产项目。此次扩建将使甲烷排放量增加1000万吨。

While China continues to invest in coal for energy and maintains a set of “inactive but operational” mines for urgent needs, the permits for coal-fired power plants dropped by 83% this year. This signals a possible shift in the country's energy policy.

尽管中国继续投资煤炭能源，并维持一批“闲置但仍在运行”的煤矿以满足紧急需求，但今年燃煤电厂的许可证数量下降了 83%。这标志着该国能源政策可能发生转变。

China is now followed by India (9%), the United States (7%),

紧随中国之后的是印度（9%）、美国（7%）、