地缘政治紧张局势和宏观FUD正在将资本推向比特币，巩固了其安全的地位，并可能延迟了预期的山寨币季节。

Macro FUD and Bitcoin Dominance: Is Altcoin Season on Hold?

宏FUD和比特币优势：Altcoin季节是否暂停？

In the ever-turbulent world of crypto, the interplay between 'Macro FUD, Bitcoin, and Altcoin Season' is always a hot topic. Recent geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties are reshaping market dynamics, bolstering Bitcoin's dominance and casting a shadow over the prospects of an altcoin season.

在加密人惊的世界中，“宏观FUD，比特币和山寨币季节”之间的相互作用始终是一个热门话题。最近的地缘政治紧张局势和宏观经济不确定性正在重塑市场动态，增强了比特币的统治地位，并在Altcoin季节的前景上蒙上了阴影。

Bitcoin's Safe-Haven Appeal

比特币的安全吸引力

June has historically favored Bitcoin, and this year is no different. Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has surged, exceeding 65% and reaching a new cycle high. What's particularly noteworthy is how geopolitical tensions, such as the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran, are influencing investor behavior. Typically, such events would drive capital into speculative assets for short-term gains. However, this time, BTC.D has climbed even higher, solidifying Bitcoin's reputation as a safe haven in times of uncertainty.

6月在历史上一直偏爱比特币，今年也没有什么不同。比特币优势（BTC.D）激增，超过65％，达到了新的周期。特别值得注意的是，地缘政治紧张局势（例如以色列与伊朗之间的加剧冲突）如何影响投资者的行为。通常，此类事件将把资本带入短期收益的投机资产。但是，这次，BTC.D在不确定性时期越来越高，巩固了比特币作为避风港的声誉。

The Altcoin Struggle

Altcoin斗争

While Bitcoin is holding its ground, altcoins are struggling. The altseason indicator is at a two-year low, with many altcoins experiencing double-digit monthly losses. This contrasts sharply with the 2022 bear market, where Ethereum briefly outperformed Bitcoin amidst macro headwinds like the Fed's rate hikes and the LUNA/UST collapse. Back then, investors sought refuge in alternative assets, giving altcoins a temporary edge.

当比特币持有地面时，山寨币仍在挣扎。 Altseason指标处于两年低点，许多Altcoins每月遭受两位数的损失。这与2022熊市的形成鲜明对比，在巨大的巨大逆风中，以太坊短暂地超过了比特币，例如美联储的速率远足和luna/ust倒塌。当时，投资者寻求替代资产的庇护，使山寨币具有暂时的优势。

Institutional Capital and Bitcoin Resilience

机构资本和比特币的弹性

The rise of institutional capital is a significant factor. Large investors favor Bitcoin as both a macro hedge and a liquidity anchor, keeping its dominance elevated. Retail investors are also catching on, recognizing Bitcoin's stronger capital resilience and opting for long-term stability over the speculative returns of high-beta altcoins.

机构资本的兴起是一个重要因素。大型投资者偏爱比特币作为宏观对冲和流动性锚，保持其优势提高。散户投资者也在赶上，认识到比特币的资本弹性更强，并且选择了高贝塔尔奶油的投机性回报的长期稳定性。

Altcoin Season 2.0: Utility Over Hype?

Altcoin Season 2.0：炒作的实用程序？

While a broad altcoin season might be delayed, a new kind of altseason could be emerging – one driven by utility rather than hype. Strong Layer 1s like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP are building the foundation of the new digital economy, leading trends like RWAs, DePIN, and stablecoins. XRP's new stablecoin, RLUSD, is a prime example, tapping into the massive stablecoin market.

尽管可能会推迟一个广泛的替代赛季节，但可能会出现一种新型的Altseason - 一个是由实用程序而不是炒作驱动的。以太坊，Solana和XRP等强大的第1层正在建立新的数字经济的基础，例如RWAS，DEPIN和StableCoins等领先的趋势。 XRP的新Stablecoin RLUSD是一个很好的例子，可以攻入大规模的Stablecoin市场。

However, a true altseason still needs a fresh catalyst, like the NFTs or memecoins of the past. The market is clearly shifting, with Bitcoin's dominance fueled by institutional flows. Yet, beneath the surface, altcoins are pivoting towards real-world applications, which could eventually swing the narrative back in their favor.

但是，真正的Altseason仍然需要新的催化剂，例如过去的NFTS或Memecoins。市场显然正在转移，比特币的统治地位是机构流动的推动。然而，在表面下，Altcoins朝着现实世界中的应用旋转，最终可能会将叙述重新偏爱。

Geopolitical Tensions and Market Sentiment

地缘政治紧张局势和市场情感

Agne Linge, Head of Growth at WeFi, noted that investors tend to shift capital from risky assets to safe havens during global conflicts. Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a digital safe haven, as evidenced by the decline in the altcoin market cap (excluding the top 10 coins) when tensions escalated. The ETH/BTC ratio has also fallen, indicating that Ethereum and most altcoins are underperforming against Bitcoin.

WEFI增长负责人Agne Linge指出，在全球冲突期间，投资者倾向于将资本从风险资产转移到避风港。当紧张局势升级时，比特币越来越被视为数字避风港，这证明了山寨币市值的下降（不包括前10个硬币）。 ETH/BTC的比率也下降了，表明以太坊和大多数山寨币对比特币的表现不佳。

The Verdict: Still in Bitcoin Season

判决：仍处于比特币季节

Readings from the Altcoin Season Index confirm that the market remains Bitcoin-dominated. A true altcoin season requires at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins to outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day period. Currently, only a small percentage have achieved this, suggesting that altcoin season is still some time away.

Altcoin季节指数的读数证实，市场仍然以比特币为主。真正的Altcoin季节需要在90天的时间内至少75％的山寨币，才能超过比特币。目前，只有一小部分人实现了这一目标，这表明Altcoin季节还有一段时间。

Final Thoughts

最后的想法

So, are we stuck in a Bitcoin-dominated world for the foreseeable future? Maybe not. While macro FUD and geopolitical tensions are currently favoring Bitcoin, the innovative developments in the altcoin space shouldn't be ignored. Keep an eye on those utility-driven projects – they might just surprise us and kick off the altseason we've all been waiting for. Until then, buckle up and enjoy the ride!

那么，在可预见的未来，我们是否陷入了以比特币为主的世界？也许不是。尽管宏FUD和地缘政治紧张局势目前偏爱比特币，但不容忽视Altcoin空间中的创新发展。请密切关注那些以公用事业为导向的项目 - 他们可能会让我们感到惊讶，并在我们一直在等待的季后赛开始。在此之前，搭扣并享受旅程！