地緣政治緊張局勢和宏觀FUD正在將資本推向比特幣，鞏固了其安全的地位，並可能延遲了預期的山寨幣季節。

Macro FUD and Bitcoin Dominance: Is Altcoin Season on Hold?

宏FUD和比特幣優勢：Altcoin季節是否暫停？

In the ever-turbulent world of crypto, the interplay between 'Macro FUD, Bitcoin, and Altcoin Season' is always a hot topic. Recent geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties are reshaping market dynamics, bolstering Bitcoin's dominance and casting a shadow over the prospects of an altcoin season.

在加密人驚的世界中，“宏觀FUD，比特幣和山寨幣季節”之間的相互作用始終是一個熱門話題。最近的地緣政治緊張局勢和宏觀經濟不確定性正在重塑市場動態，增強了比特幣的統治地位，並在Altcoin季節的前景上蒙上了陰影。

Bitcoin's Safe-Haven Appeal

比特幣的安全吸引力

June has historically favored Bitcoin, and this year is no different. Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has surged, exceeding 65% and reaching a new cycle high. What's particularly noteworthy is how geopolitical tensions, such as the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran, are influencing investor behavior. Typically, such events would drive capital into speculative assets for short-term gains. However, this time, BTC.D has climbed even higher, solidifying Bitcoin's reputation as a safe haven in times of uncertainty.

6月在歷史上一直偏愛比特幣，今年也沒有什麼不同。比特幣優勢（BTC.D）激增，超過65％，達到了新的周期。特別值得注意的是，地緣政治緊張局勢（例如以色列與伊朗之間的加劇衝突）如何影響投資者的行為。通常，此類事件將把資本帶入短期收益的投機資產。但是，這次，BTC.D在不確定性時期越來越高，鞏固了比特幣作為避風港的聲譽。

The Altcoin Struggle

Altcoin鬥爭

While Bitcoin is holding its ground, altcoins are struggling. The altseason indicator is at a two-year low, with many altcoins experiencing double-digit monthly losses. This contrasts sharply with the 2022 bear market, where Ethereum briefly outperformed Bitcoin amidst macro headwinds like the Fed's rate hikes and the LUNA/UST collapse. Back then, investors sought refuge in alternative assets, giving altcoins a temporary edge.

當比特幣持有地面時，山寨幣仍在掙扎。 Altseason指標處於兩年低點，許多Altcoins每月遭受兩位數的損失。這與2022熊市的形成鮮明對比，在巨大的巨大逆風中，以太坊短暫地超過了比特幣，例如美聯儲的速率遠足和luna/ust倒塌。當時，投資者尋求替代資產的庇護，使山寨幣具有暫時的優勢。

Institutional Capital and Bitcoin Resilience

機構資本和比特幣的彈性

The rise of institutional capital is a significant factor. Large investors favor Bitcoin as both a macro hedge and a liquidity anchor, keeping its dominance elevated. Retail investors are also catching on, recognizing Bitcoin's stronger capital resilience and opting for long-term stability over the speculative returns of high-beta altcoins.

機構資本的興起是一個重要因素。大型投資者偏愛比特幣作為宏觀對沖和流動性錨，保持其優勢提高。散戶投資者也在趕上，認識到比特幣的資本彈性更強，並且選擇了高貝塔爾奶油的投機性回報的長期穩定性。

Altcoin Season 2.0: Utility Over Hype?

Altcoin Season 2.0：炒作的實用程序？

While a broad altcoin season might be delayed, a new kind of altseason could be emerging – one driven by utility rather than hype. Strong Layer 1s like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP are building the foundation of the new digital economy, leading trends like RWAs, DePIN, and stablecoins. XRP's new stablecoin, RLUSD, is a prime example, tapping into the massive stablecoin market.

儘管可能會推遲一個廣泛的替代賽季節，但可能會出現一種新型的Altseason - 一個是由實用程序而不是炒作驅動的。以太坊，Solana和XRP等強大的第1層正在建立新的數字經濟的基礎，例如RWAS，DEPIN和StableCoins等領先的趨勢。 XRP的新Stablecoin RLUSD是一個很好的例子，可以攻入大規模的Stablecoin市場。

However, a true altseason still needs a fresh catalyst, like the NFTs or memecoins of the past. The market is clearly shifting, with Bitcoin's dominance fueled by institutional flows. Yet, beneath the surface, altcoins are pivoting towards real-world applications, which could eventually swing the narrative back in their favor.

但是，真正的Altseason仍然需要新的催化劑，例如過去的NFTS或Memecoins。市場顯然正在轉移，比特幣的統治地位是機構流動的推動。然而，在表面下，Altcoins朝著現實世界中的應用旋轉，最終可能會將敘述重新偏愛。

Geopolitical Tensions and Market Sentiment

地緣政治緊張局勢和市場情感

Agne Linge, Head of Growth at WeFi, noted that investors tend to shift capital from risky assets to safe havens during global conflicts. Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a digital safe haven, as evidenced by the decline in the altcoin market cap (excluding the top 10 coins) when tensions escalated. The ETH/BTC ratio has also fallen, indicating that Ethereum and most altcoins are underperforming against Bitcoin.

WEFI增長負責人Agne Linge指出，在全球衝突期間，投資者傾向於將資本從風險資產轉移到避風港。當緊張局勢升級時，比特幣越來越被視為數字避風港，這證明了山寨幣市值的下降（不包括前10個硬幣）。 ETH/BTC的比率也下降了，表明以太坊和大多數山寨幣對比特幣的表現不佳。

The Verdict: Still in Bitcoin Season

判決：仍處於比特幣季節

Readings from the Altcoin Season Index confirm that the market remains Bitcoin-dominated. A true altcoin season requires at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins to outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day period. Currently, only a small percentage have achieved this, suggesting that altcoin season is still some time away.

Altcoin季節指數的讀數證實，市場仍然以比特幣為主。真正的Altcoin季節需要在90天的時間內至少75％的山寨幣，才能超過比特幣。目前，只有一小部分人實現了這一目標，這表明Altcoin季節還有一段時間。

Final Thoughts

最後的想法

So, are we stuck in a Bitcoin-dominated world for the foreseeable future? Maybe not. While macro FUD and geopolitical tensions are currently favoring Bitcoin, the innovative developments in the altcoin space shouldn't be ignored. Keep an eye on those utility-driven projects – they might just surprise us and kick off the altseason we've all been waiting for. Until then, buckle up and enjoy the ride!

那麼，在可預見的未來，我們是否陷入了以比特幣為主的世界？也許不是。儘管宏FUD和地緣政治緊張局勢目前偏愛比特幣，但不容忽視Altcoin空間中的創新發展。請密切關注那些以公用事業為導向的項目 - 他們可能會讓我們感到驚訝，並在我們一直在等待的季后賽開始。在此之前，搭扣並享受旅程！