高盛（Goldman Sachs）预计$ 4000黄金，因为中央银行选择黄金而不是比特币

美元疲软和地缘政治不确定性上升正在推动对黄金的需求激增。

Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could hit $4,000 per ounce, outperforming both Bitcoin and silver as the world’s most trusted safe-haven asset, reported Bloomberg.

彭博社报道，高盛（Goldman Sachs）预测，黄金价格可能会达到每盎司4,000美元的价格，表现优于比特币和白银作为世界上最值得信赖的安全资产。

The bank's analysts highlight a weakening dollar and rising geopolitical uncertainty are driving a surge in demand for the precious metal.

该银行的分析师重点介绍了美元削弱和地缘政治不确定性的上升正在推动对贵金属的需求激增。

Central banks are increasingly turning to gold over Bitcoin as they seek to diversify their foreign exchange reserves. This shift is being fueled by concerns over currency stability and the potential for large-scale economic sanctions.

中央银行越来越多地求助于比特币，因为它们试图多样化其外汇储备。对货币稳定性的担忧和大规模经济制裁的潜力，这一转变正在加剧。

Thomas: Central Banks Prefer Gold Due to Bitcoin's Tech Stock Link

托马斯：由于比特币的技术股票链接，中央银行更喜欢黄金

Goldman Sachs strategist Lina Thomas explains that the traditional relationship between U.S. interest rates and gold prices has changed. Usually, higher rates push investors toward Treasury bonds, pulling them away from gold. However, this trend broke down after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

高盛战略家莉娜·托马斯（Lina Thomas）解释说，美国利率与黄金价格之间的传统关系已经改变。通常，较高的利率将投资者推向国库券，使他们脱离黄金。然而，在2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后，这种趋势破裂了。

When Western governments froze Russian central bank reserves, it sent a clear message to other nations: dollar and euro reserves may no longer be risk-free. This event, according to Thomas, "shook trust in Western currencies and set the stage for a shift in reserve strategies."

当西方政府冻结俄罗斯中央银行储备时，它向其他国家发送了一个明确的信息：美元和欧元储备可能不再无风险。托马斯（Thomas）表示，这一事件“对西方货币的信任，为储备战略的转变奠定了基础。”

In response, central banks have been aggressively buying gold, with monthly purchases increasing from 17 tons before the war to 22 tons afterward. By 2025, these purchases are expected to reach 94 tons per month.

作为回应，中央银行一直在积极购买黄金，每月购买从战前的17吨增加到随后的22吨。到2025年，这些购买预计每月达到94吨。

Among those pivoting toward gold are China and Russia. As part of its broader economic strategy, China aims to convert 20 percent of its reserves into the precious metal.

在关注黄金的人中，有中国和俄罗斯。作为其更广泛的经济战略的一部分，中国的目标是将其20％的储量转换为贵金属。

Gold Vs. Bitcoin, Silver: Key Differences

黄金与比特币，银：关键差异

While both gold and Bitcoin are praised for limited supply and inflation resistance, Goldman Sachs views gold as the more reliable hedge.

尽管黄金和比特币都因有限的供应和通货膨胀性而受到称赞，但高盛将黄金视为更可靠的树篱。

Gold's stability and low correlation with equities make it more suitable for risk-averse investors, says Daan Struyven, co-head of commodities research.

商品研究联合主管Daan Struyven说，黄金的稳定性和与股票的低相关性使其更适合于规避风险的投资者。

"Bitcoin's volatility and ties to tech stocks limit its appeal during economic stress," Struyven adds. This is also why central banks are pivoting toward gold over digital assets.

Struyven补充说：“比特币的波动和与科技股的联系限制了其在经济压力期间的吸引力。”这也是为什么中央银行在数字资产上转向黄金的原因。

Meanwhile, silver is being left behind. Thomas cites three key drawbacks: silver tarnishes, is harder to store and transport, and lacks recognition as a reserve asset by institutions like the I.M.F.

同时，银被留在后面。托马斯（Thomas

"Silver is more of an industrial material than a monetary one," she says.

她说：“白银更像是一种工业材料，而不是一种货币。”

Lastly, Goldman Sachs notes that gold remains a small part of global financial markets—only 0.5 percent of the total stock market value. This means even minor shifts in portfolio allocations can create outsized moves in gold prices.

最后，高盛指出，黄金仍然是全球金融市场的一小部分，仅占股票总价值的0.5％。这意味着即使是对投资组合分配的微小变化也可以创造出黄金价格的超大举动。

"Gold is no longer just a historical store of value. It's becoming a renewed symbol of trust as confidence in fiat currencies erodes," Thomas concludes.

托马斯总结说：“黄金不再只是一个价值的历史存储。它已成为对法定货币信任的重新信任象征。”