高盛（Goldman Sachs）預計$ 4000黃金，因為中央銀行選擇黃金而不是比特幣

美元疲軟和地緣政治不確定性上升正在推動對黃金的需求激增。

Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could hit $4,000 per ounce, outperforming both Bitcoin and silver as the world’s most trusted safe-haven asset, reported Bloomberg.

彭博社報導，高盛（Goldman Sachs）預測，黃金價格可能會達到每盎司4,000美元的價格，表現優於比特幣和白銀作為世界上最值得信賴的安全資產。

The bank's analysts highlight a weakening dollar and rising geopolitical uncertainty are driving a surge in demand for the precious metal.

該銀行的分析師重點介紹了美元削弱和地緣政治不確定性的上升正在推動對貴金屬的需求激增。

Central banks are increasingly turning to gold over Bitcoin as they seek to diversify their foreign exchange reserves. This shift is being fueled by concerns over currency stability and the potential for large-scale economic sanctions.

中央銀行越來越多地求助於比特幣，因為它們試圖多樣化其外匯儲備。對貨幣穩定性的擔憂和大規模經濟制裁的潛力，這一轉變正在加劇。

Thomas: Central Banks Prefer Gold Due to Bitcoin's Tech Stock Link

托馬斯：由於比特幣的技術股票鏈接，中央銀行更喜歡黃金

Goldman Sachs strategist Lina Thomas explains that the traditional relationship between U.S. interest rates and gold prices has changed. Usually, higher rates push investors toward Treasury bonds, pulling them away from gold. However, this trend broke down after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

高盛戰略家莉娜·托馬斯（Lina Thomas）解釋說，美國利率與黃金價格之間的傳統關係已經改變。通常，較高的利率將投資者推向國庫券，使他們脫離黃金。然而，在2022年俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之後，這種趨勢破裂了。

When Western governments froze Russian central bank reserves, it sent a clear message to other nations: dollar and euro reserves may no longer be risk-free. This event, according to Thomas, "shook trust in Western currencies and set the stage for a shift in reserve strategies."

當西方政府凍結俄羅斯中央銀行儲備時，它向其他國家發送了一個明確的信息：美元和歐元儲備可能不再無風險。托馬斯（Thomas）表示，這一事件“對西方貨幣的信任，為儲備戰略的轉變奠定了基礎。”

In response, central banks have been aggressively buying gold, with monthly purchases increasing from 17 tons before the war to 22 tons afterward. By 2025, these purchases are expected to reach 94 tons per month.

作為回應，中央銀行一直在積極購買黃金，每月購買從戰前的17噸增加到隨後的22噸。到2025年，這些購買預計每月達到94噸。

Among those pivoting toward gold are China and Russia. As part of its broader economic strategy, China aims to convert 20 percent of its reserves into the precious metal.

在關注黃金的人中，有中國和俄羅斯。作為其更廣泛的經濟戰略的一部分，中國的目標是將其20％的儲量轉換為貴金屬。

Gold Vs. Bitcoin, Silver: Key Differences

黃金與比特幣，銀：關鍵差異

While both gold and Bitcoin are praised for limited supply and inflation resistance, Goldman Sachs views gold as the more reliable hedge.

儘管黃金和比特幣都因有限的供應和通貨膨脹性而受到稱讚，但高盛將黃金視為更可靠的樹籬。

Gold's stability and low correlation with equities make it more suitable for risk-averse investors, says Daan Struyven, co-head of commodities research.

商品研究聯合主管Daan Struyven說，黃金的穩定性和與股票的低相關性使其更適合於規避風險的投資者。

"Bitcoin's volatility and ties to tech stocks limit its appeal during economic stress," Struyven adds. This is also why central banks are pivoting toward gold over digital assets.

Struyven補充說：“比特幣的波動和與科技股的聯繫限制了其在經濟壓力期間的吸引力。”這也是為什麼中央銀行在數字資產上轉向黃金的原因。

Meanwhile, silver is being left behind. Thomas cites three key drawbacks: silver tarnishes, is harder to store and transport, and lacks recognition as a reserve asset by institutions like the I.M.F.

同時，銀被留在後面。托馬斯（Thomas

"Silver is more of an industrial material than a monetary one," she says.

她說：“白銀更像是一種工業材料，而不是一種貨幣。”

Lastly, Goldman Sachs notes that gold remains a small part of global financial markets—only 0.5 percent of the total stock market value. This means even minor shifts in portfolio allocations can create outsized moves in gold prices.

最後，高盛指出，黃金仍然是全球金融市場的一小部分，僅佔股票總價值的0.5％。這意味著即使是對投資組合分配的微小變化也可以創造出黃金價格的超大舉動。

"Gold is no longer just a historical store of value. It's becoming a renewed symbol of trust as confidence in fiat currencies erodes," Thomas concludes.

托馬斯總結說：“黃金不再只是一個價值的歷史存儲。它已成為對法定貨幣信任的重新信任象徵。”