未来治理实验

这个21天的社会实验不仅测试了预测市场在公共链生态系统治理中的可行性

Optimism launched a very novel Futarchy governance experiment in March. Futarchy literally means prediction experiment. In blockchain, Futarchy is a governance model that guides decision-making through prediction markets, using the prediction power of financial markets and the real money input of participants to encourage more accurate predictions and analysis. In this experiment, Optimism used Futarchy to distribute a total of 500k OP (100k * 5) incentives to explore a new incentive distribution model for public chain parties to stimulate ecological development. Most of the progress of the experiment has been completed. As one of the participants in the experiment, LXDAO member Loxia expressed cautious optimism about the future of this governance method.

乐观情绪于3月推出了非常新颖的未来治理实验。未来结构从字面上意味着预测实验。在区块链中，Futarchy是一种治理模型，它使用金融市场的预测能力和参与者的真实资金投入来指导决策，以鼓励更准确的预测和分析。在这项实验中，乐观情绪使用Futarchy分发了总共500K OP（100K * 5）激励措施，以探索公共连锁当事方的新激励分配模型，以刺激生态发展。实验的大部分进展已经完成。作为实验的参与者之一，LXDAO成员Loxia对这种治理方法的未来表达了谨慎的乐观。

Optimism launched a landmark on-chain governance experiment in March 2025. Through the Futarchy mechanism, 500,000 OP tokens were distributed as incentives. This 21-day social experiment not only tested the feasibility of the prediction market in the governance of the public chain ecosystem, but also revealed the complex tension in the evolution of decentralized decision-making mechanisms.

乐观情绪于2025年3月发起了具有里程碑意义的链政治实验。通过未来的机制，将500,000个OP令牌作为激励措施分发。这个为期21天的社会实验不仅测试了预测市场在公共链生态系统治理中的可行性，而且还揭示了分散决策机制的演变中的复杂张力。

At the same time, in order to make the experiment more open and to obtain more data for testing the experiment, the experimenter has opened up participation rights. Anyone with a Telegram account or a Farcaster account can participate. All predictors will receive 50 OP-PLAY entry chips (OP-PLAY, the token has no actual value and is a fake chip for experiments only), and the actual participants in OP governance will receive more OP-PLAY chips.

同时，为了使实验更加开放并获得了更多数据进行测试，实验者已经开放了参与权。拥有电报帐户或Farcaster帐户的任何人都可以参与。所有预测变量都将获得50个操作输入芯片（运算播放，令牌没有实际价值，并且仅是实验的假芯片），并且OP治理中的实际参与者将获得更多的操作筹码。

So what is the prediction problem that this round of Futarchy revolves around?

那么，这一轮未来的预测问题是什么？

If a project gets 100k OP incentives, which protocol(s) will get the biggest TVL growth after three months?

如果一个项目获得100K OP激励措施，那么三个月后，哪种协议将获得最大的TVL增长？

There are 23 projects participating in Futarchy this time. Each participant in the experiment needs to predict the TVL increment of these 23 projects after "getting 100k OP incentives". At the beginning of the experiment, the initial predicted TVL of all projects is the same (the same starting line, as a reference in the project selection of the test experiment). As time goes on, users pledge OP-PLAY and buy call options (UP token) and put options (DOWN token) for different projects to start the game. The five projects with the highest prediction results will each receive 100k OP incentives.

这次有23个项目参加了未来。实验中的每个参与者都需要在“获得100K OP激励措施”之后预测这23个项目的TVL增量。在实验开始时，所有项目的初始预测TVL都是相同的（相同的起始行，作为测试实验项目选择中的参考）。随着时间的流逝，用户承诺运行播放并购买呼叫选项（上令牌），并将选项（下令牌）放置以启动游戏。预测结果最高的五个项目将分别获得100K OP激励措施。

After the experiment, participants selected five projects through OP-PLAY prediction market. For comparison, the Grants Council also selected five funded projects:

实验后，参与者通过运营预测市场选择了五个项目。为了进行比较，赠款委员会还选择了五个资助的项目：

The top five 100K OP funding projects selected by Futarchy during the 21-day ups and downs game are:

Futarchy在21天跌宕起伏的游戏中选择的前五名100K OP资金项目是：

At the same time, the Grants Council selected five funded projects (if there is overlap, only one grant is issued):

同时，赠款委员会选择了五个资助的项目（如果有重叠，只有一笔赠款）：

The experiment is over, and the results of the two funding directions are not exactly the same. Among them, two projects selected by Futarchy are also covered by the Grants Council. Among the five projects selected by the Grants Council, two projects focused on the Web3 game sector, and two projects focused on middleware and infrastructure. Among the five projects selected by Futarchy, three projects are related to middleware and infrastructure, and one project is related to the Web3 game sector.

实验结束了，两个融资方向的结果并不完全相同。其中，赠款委员会还涵盖了Futarchy选择的两个项目。在赠款委员会选择的五个项目中，两个项目集中在Web3游戏领域，两个项目集中在中间件和基础架构上。在Futarchy选择的五个项目中，三个项目与中间件和基础架构有关，一个项目与Web3游戏领域有关。

This experiment focused on testing the feasibility of the prediction market in the governance of the public chain ecosystem, but it also encountered difficulties in implementation. For example, the angle from which the indicators of the prediction experiment are set is also very important.

该实验的重点是测试预测市场在公共链生态系统治理中的可行性，但它在实施方面也遇到了困难。例如，设置预测实验指标的角度也非常重要。

The experiment focused on testing the feasibility of the prediction market in the governance of the public chain ecosystem, but it also encountered difficulties in implementation. For example, the angle from which the indicators of the prediction experiment are set is also very important.

该实验的重点是测试预测市场在公共链生态系统治理中的可行性，但它在实施方面也遇到了困难。例如，设置预测实验指标的角度也非常重要。

The experiment focused on testing the feasibility of the prediction market in the governance of the public chain ecosystem, but it also encountered difficulties in implementation. For example, the angle from which the indicators of the prediction experiment are set is also very important.

该实验的重点是测试预测市场在公共链生态系统治理中的可行性，但它在实施方面也遇到了困难。例如，设置预测实验指标的角度也非常重要。

The experiment focused on testing the feasibility of the prediction market in the governance of the public chain ecosystem, but it also encountered difficulties in implementation. For example, the angle from which the indicators of the prediction experiment are set is also very important.

该实验的重点是测试预测市场在公共链生态系统治理中的可行性，但它在实施方面也遇到了困难。例如，设置预测实验指标的角度也非常重要。

The experiment focused on testing the feasibility of the prediction market in the governance of the public chain ecosystem, but it also encountered difficulties in implementation. For example, the angle from which the indicators of the prediction experiment are set is also very important.

该实验的重点是测试预测市场在公共链生态系统治理中的可行性，但它在实施方面也遇到了困难。例如，设置预测实验指标的角度也非常重要。

The experiment focused on testing the feasibility of the prediction market in the governance of the public chain ecosystem, but it also encountered difficulties in implementation. For example, the angle from which the indicators of the prediction experiment are set is also very important.

该实验的重点是测试预测市场在公共链生态系统治理中的可行性，但它在实施方面也遇到了困难。例如，设置预测实验指标的角度也非常重要。

The experiment focused on testing the feasibility of the prediction market

该实验的重点是测试预测市场的可行性