未來治理實驗

這個21天的社會實驗不僅測試了預測市場在公共鏈生態系統治理中的可行性

Optimism launched a very novel Futarchy governance experiment in March. Futarchy literally means prediction experiment. In blockchain, Futarchy is a governance model that guides decision-making through prediction markets, using the prediction power of financial markets and the real money input of participants to encourage more accurate predictions and analysis. In this experiment, Optimism used Futarchy to distribute a total of 500k OP (100k * 5) incentives to explore a new incentive distribution model for public chain parties to stimulate ecological development. Most of the progress of the experiment has been completed. As one of the participants in the experiment, LXDAO member Loxia expressed cautious optimism about the future of this governance method.

樂觀情緒於3月推出了非常新穎的未來治理實驗。未來結構從字面上意味著預測實驗。在區塊鏈中，Futarchy是一種治理模型，它使用金融市場的預測能力和參與者的真實資金投入來指導決策，以鼓勵更準確的預測和分析。在這項實驗中，樂觀情緒使用Futarchy分發了總共500K OP（100K * 5）激勵措施，以探索公共連鎖當事方的新激勵分配模型，以刺激生態發展。實驗的大部分進展已經完成。作為實驗的參與者之一，LXDAO成員Loxia對這種治理方法的未來表達了謹慎的樂觀。

Optimism launched a landmark on-chain governance experiment in March 2025. Through the Futarchy mechanism, 500,000 OP tokens were distributed as incentives. This 21-day social experiment not only tested the feasibility of the prediction market in the governance of the public chain ecosystem, but also revealed the complex tension in the evolution of decentralized decision-making mechanisms.

樂觀情緒於2025年3月發起了具有里程碑意義的鏈政治實驗。通過未來的機制，將500,000個OP令牌作為激勵措施分發。這個為期21天的社會實驗不僅測試了預測市場在公共鏈生態系統治理中的可行性，而且還揭示了分散決策機制的演變中的複雜張力。

At the same time, in order to make the experiment more open and to obtain more data for testing the experiment, the experimenter has opened up participation rights. Anyone with a Telegram account or a Farcaster account can participate. All predictors will receive 50 OP-PLAY entry chips (OP-PLAY, the token has no actual value and is a fake chip for experiments only), and the actual participants in OP governance will receive more OP-PLAY chips.

同時，為了使實驗更加開放並獲得了更多數據進行測試，實驗者已經開放了參與權。擁有電報帳戶或Farcaster帳戶的任何人都可以參與。所有預測變量都將獲得50個操作輸入芯片（運算播放，令牌沒有實際價值，並且僅是實驗的假芯片），並且OP治理中的實際參與者將獲得更多的操作籌碼。

So what is the prediction problem that this round of Futarchy revolves around?

那麼，這一輪未來的預測問題是什麼？

If a project gets 100k OP incentives, which protocol(s) will get the biggest TVL growth after three months?

如果一個項目獲得100K OP激勵措施，那麼三個月後，哪種協議將獲得最大的TVL增長？

There are 23 projects participating in Futarchy this time. Each participant in the experiment needs to predict the TVL increment of these 23 projects after "getting 100k OP incentives". At the beginning of the experiment, the initial predicted TVL of all projects is the same (the same starting line, as a reference in the project selection of the test experiment). As time goes on, users pledge OP-PLAY and buy call options (UP token) and put options (DOWN token) for different projects to start the game. The five projects with the highest prediction results will each receive 100k OP incentives.

這次有23個項目參加了未來。實驗中的每個參與者都需要在“獲得100K OP激勵措施”之後預測這23個項目的TVL增量。在實驗開始時，所有項目的初始預測TVL都是相同的（相同的起始行，作為測試實驗項目選擇中的參考）。隨著時間的流逝，用戶承諾運行播放併購買呼叫選項（上令牌），並將選項（下令牌）放置以啟動遊戲。預測結果最高的五個項目將分別獲得100K OP激勵措施。

After the experiment, participants selected five projects through OP-PLAY prediction market. For comparison, the Grants Council also selected five funded projects:

實驗後，參與者通過運營預測市場選擇了五個項目。為了進行比較，贈款委員會還選擇了五個資助的項目：

The top five 100K OP funding projects selected by Futarchy during the 21-day ups and downs game are:

Futarchy在21天跌宕起伏的遊戲中選擇的前五名100K OP資金項目是：

At the same time, the Grants Council selected five funded projects (if there is overlap, only one grant is issued):

同時，贈款委員會選擇了五個資助的項目（如果有重疊，只有一筆贈款）：

The experiment is over, and the results of the two funding directions are not exactly the same. Among them, two projects selected by Futarchy are also covered by the Grants Council. Among the five projects selected by the Grants Council, two projects focused on the Web3 game sector, and two projects focused on middleware and infrastructure. Among the five projects selected by Futarchy, three projects are related to middleware and infrastructure, and one project is related to the Web3 game sector.

實驗結束了，兩個融資方向的結果並不完全相同。其中，贈款委員會還涵蓋了Futarchy選擇的兩個項目。在贈款委員會選擇的五個項目中，兩個項目集中在Web3遊戲領域，兩個項目集中在中間件和基礎架構上。在Futarchy選擇的五個項目中，三個項目與中間件和基礎架構有關，一個項目與Web3遊戲領域有關。

This experiment focused on testing the feasibility of the prediction market in the governance of the public chain ecosystem, but it also encountered difficulties in implementation. For example, the angle from which the indicators of the prediction experiment are set is also very important.

該實驗的重點是測試預測市場在公共鏈生態系統治理中的可行性，但它在實施方面也遇到了困難。例如，設置預測實驗指標的角度也非常重要。

The experiment focused on testing the feasibility of the prediction market in the governance of the public chain ecosystem, but it also encountered difficulties in implementation. For example, the angle from which the indicators of the prediction experiment are set is also very important.

該實驗的重點是測試預測市場在公共鏈生態系統治理中的可行性，但它在實施方面也遇到了困難。例如，設置預測實驗指標的角度也非常重要。

The experiment focused on testing the feasibility of the prediction market in the governance of the public chain ecosystem, but it also encountered difficulties in implementation. For example, the angle from which the indicators of the prediction experiment are set is also very important.

該實驗的重點是測試預測市場在公共鏈生態系統治理中的可行性，但它在實施方面也遇到了困難。例如，設置預測實驗指標的角度也非常重要。

The experiment focused on testing the feasibility of the prediction market in the governance of the public chain ecosystem, but it also encountered difficulties in implementation. For example, the angle from which the indicators of the prediction experiment are set is also very important.

該實驗的重點是測試預測市場在公共鏈生態系統治理中的可行性，但它在實施方面也遇到了困難。例如，設置預測實驗指標的角度也非常重要。

The experiment focused on testing the feasibility of the prediction market in the governance of the public chain ecosystem, but it also encountered difficulties in implementation. For example, the angle from which the indicators of the prediction experiment are set is also very important.

該實驗的重點是測試預測市場在公共鏈生態系統治理中的可行性，但它在實施方面也遇到了困難。例如，設置預測實驗指標的角度也非常重要。

The experiment focused on testing the feasibility of the prediction market in the governance of the public chain ecosystem, but it also encountered difficulties in implementation. For example, the angle from which the indicators of the prediction experiment are set is also very important.

該實驗的重點是測試預測市場在公共鏈生態系統治理中的可行性，但它在實施方面也遇到了困難。例如，設置預測實驗指標的角度也非常重要。

The experiment focused on testing the feasibility of the prediction market

該實驗的重點是測試預測市場的可行性