随着波动性暴跌，加密货币涨势失去动力

以太坊和比特币平价 (ATM) 期权的隐含波动率 (IV) 大幅下降，表明市场对价格上涨的乐观情绪减弱。以太坊 ATM 期权的 IV 已从 88% 以上骤降至 60% 左右，而在相同的到期范围内，比特币 ATM 期权则从 77% 降至 51% 以下。

Diminished Confidence in Cryptocurrency Rally Amidst Plummeting Implied Volatility

在隐含波动性暴跌的情况下，人们对加密货币反弹的信心减弱

A notable decline in the implied volatility (IV) of at-the-money (ATM) options for both ether and bitcoin signals a dwindling belief in the potential for further price increases, according to analysts.

分析师表示，以太坊和比特币平价 (ATM) 期权的隐含波动率 (IV) 显着下降，表明人们对价格进一步上涨潜力的信心减弱。

Data from The Block's Data Dashboard reveals a sharp drop in IV for ether ATM options, falling from over 88% to around 60% for expirations ranging from one week to several months. Bitcoin ATM options have witnessed a similar trend, with IV plummeting from a mid-month high of over 77% to below 51% for the same expiry ranges.

The Block 数据仪表板的数据显示，以太坊 ATM 期权的 IV 急剧下降，到期时间从一周到几个月不等，从 88% 以上下降到 60% 左右。比特币 ATM 期权也出现了类似的趋势，在相同的到期范围内，IV 从月中高点 77% 以上暴跌至 51% 以下。

"The plummeting implied volatility is astonishing," remarked Gordon Grant, a seasoned cryptocurrency derivatives trader. He emphasized that the multi-week IV decline aligns with a reduction in realized volatility as well.

经验丰富的加密货币衍生品交易员戈登·格兰特表示：“隐含波动率的暴跌令人震惊。”他强调，多周的 IV 下降也与实际波动率的下降相一致。

Traders, who had previously been betting on higher prices by selling options contracts both before and after the halving event, have now abandoned their optimistic expectations. "Structured product flows have flooded the market with gamma, and aggressive overwriters have effectively capitulated on their hopes for higher bitcoin prices," Grant explained.

此前在减半事件前后通过出售期权合约来押注价格上涨的交易员现在已经放弃了乐观预期。格兰特解释说：“结构性产品流已经让市场充斥着伽玛，激进的承销商实际上已经放弃了他们对比特币价格上涨的希望。”

The cryptocurrency derivatives trader highlighted a shift in market sentiment, as evidenced by the declining importance placed on ATM calls with a strike price of $100,000 for December 2024. Traders are now showing greater interest in call options with a lower strike price of $75,000, which hold a 50% delta sensitivity, indicating a diminished belief in bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end.

这位加密货币衍生品交易员强调了市场情绪的转变，2024 年 12 月执行价格为 100,000 美元的 ATM 看涨期权的重要性下降就证明了这一点。交易者现在对执行价格较低为 75,000 美元的看涨期权表现出更大的兴趣，该期权持有50% 的 Delta 敏感度，表明人们对比特币到年底达到 10 万美元的信心有所减弱。

"This shift suggests traders are placing more weight on options with a lower strike price, possibly because they believe bitcoin is more likely to reach $75,000 than $100,000 by year-end," Grant stated.

格兰特表示：“这一转变表明交易者更加看重执行价格较低的期权，可能是因为他们认为比特币到年底更有可能达到 75,000 美元，而不是 100,000 美元。”

The price drop following the bitcoin halving has also played a role in eroding confidence, with investors failing to capitalize on high market prices prior to the event and subsequently missing out on profit opportunities. Additionally, a rush of traders have sought to sell options contracts before their expiration, as the prices of these contracts were significantly higher before the halving, especially those betting on bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 2024.

比特币减半后的价格下跌也削弱了信心，投资者未能在减半之前利用高市场价格，从而错过了获利机会。此外，大量交易者试图在期权合约到期前出售期权合约，因为这些合约的价格在减半之前明显较高，尤其是那些押注比特币到 2024 年 12 月达到 10 万美元的合约。

"Bitcoin holders hesitated in cashing in on the cyclically high volatility pre-halving, and the subsequent rush to sell fat premiums has resulted in those same December $100,000 options falling from 20% of spot to now well under 10%," Grant noted.

格兰特指出，“比特币持有者在减半前的周期性高波动性中犹豫不决，随后急于出售高额溢价，导致 12 月 10 万美元期权从现货的 20% 跌至目前远低于 10%。”

The decline in implied volatility and the shift in market sentiment suggest that traders are becoming increasingly cautious about the prospects for further price appreciation in the cryptocurrency market. While the halving event initially sparked optimism, the subsequent price drop and the capitulation of traders from bullish positions have dampened expectations. As a result, the market appears to be entering a period of consolidation, with traders awaiting clearer signals before recommitting to aggressive positions.

隐含波动率的下降和市场情绪的转变表明，交易者对加密货币市场价格进一步升值的前景变得越来越谨慎。虽然减半事件最初引发了乐观情绪，但随后的价格下跌和交易员放弃看涨头寸削弱了预期。因此，市场似乎正在进入盘整期，交易者在重新采取激进头寸之前等待更明确的信号。