BTC价格达到了新的历史最高高度，因为债券收益率上升反映了人们对财政稳定和通货膨胀的越来越关注

债券收益率上升反映了人们对财政稳定性和通货膨胀的越来越关注，导致一些投资者质疑美国财政部作为避风港资产的传统作用。

Rising bond yields are reflecting growing concern about fiscal stability and inflation, leading some investors to question US Treasury’s traditional role as a safe-haven asset amid a turbulent macroeconomic backdrop.

债券收益率上升反映了人们对财政稳定性和通货膨胀的越来越关注，导致一些投资者在动荡的宏观经济背景下质疑美国财政部作为避风港资产的传统作用。

As US bond yields continue their ascent, reaching new highs in the past week, a paradoxical situation is unfolding. Rising yields are usually associated with a deteriorating macroeconomic outlook, which would normally favor Bitcoin (BTC) and see stock markets decline. However, both equities and Bitcoin have been surging amid a fragile global economic landscape.

随着美国债券收益率继续上升，在过去一周达到新的高点，这种矛盾的情况正在发展。收益率上升通常与宏观经济前景恶化有关，这通常会偏爱比特币（BTC），并看到股票市场下降。但是，在全球经济格局脆弱的情况下，股票和比特币都在激增。

This divergence suggests that investors may be shifting away from the traditional playbook for navigating market cycles. When confidence in the system erodes, assets outside of it, such as stocks and Bitcoin, begin to perform well.

这种分歧表明，投资者可能正在从传统的播放市场周期的剧本中转移。当对系统的信心侵蚀时，库存和比特币之外的资产就会开始运行良好。

Moreover, an increasing number of institutions are choosing Bitcoin over U.S. stocks. According to BofA data from earlier May, a net 38% of institutional investors were underweight U.S. equities, the lowest reading since May 2023.

此外，越来越多的机构选择比特币而不是美国股票。根据5月初的BOFA数据，净38％的机构投资者是美国股票不足，这是自2023年5月以来的最低阅读。

Meanwhile, total inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to grow, with assets under management now exceeding $104 billion, a new all-time high, according to CoinGlass. This surge suggests that institutional capital is beginning to recognize Bitcoin not just for its strong performance but also as a neutral store of value, much like gold.

同时，根据Coinglass的数据，总资产的总资产超过1004亿美元，这是一个新的历史最高水平。这一激增表明，机构资本不仅因为其强劲的表现，而且是中立的价值存储，就像黄金一样。

In an era of escalating instability in fiat debt-based economies, Bitcoin is emerging as a credible alternative, offering a monetary system characterized by predictability and decentralization, especially when considering the U.S. government’s last remaining AAA credit rating was downgraded by Standard & Poor’s. Bitcoin is also not subject to the whims of politicians, presidents or parties.

在基于菲亚特债务的经济体中不稳定的时代，比特币正成为可靠的替代方案，它提供了一种以可预测性和权力下放为特征的货币体系，尤其是在考虑美国政府剩余的最后一次AAA信用等级时，由标准＆Poor降级。比特币也不受政客，总统或政党的异想天开。

Bitcoin’s market cap is still significantly lower than gold’s $22 trillion or even the $5.5 trillion in base dollars (not including debt).

比特币的市值仍然明显低于Gold的22万亿美元甚至5.5万亿美元的基本美元（不包括债务）。

Investors are turning away from Treasuries, which may indicate that the problems in the U.S. economy are becoming too large to ignore.

投资者正在远离国库，这可能表明美国经济中的问题变得太大而无法忽略。

A troubling development is the rapid increase in 30-year bond yields, which reached 5.15% on May 22. This is the highest level since October 2023, and prior to that, a rate last seen in July 2007.

令人不安的发展是30年债券收益率的迅速增加，该收益率在5月22日达到5.15％。这是自2023年10月以来的最高水平，在此之前，这是2007年7月最后一次出现的汇率。

The 10-year bond yield is now at 4.48%, the 5-year bond yield stands at 4% and the 2-year bond yield is at 3.92%. For the first time since October 2021, the U.S. 5-Year to 30-Year bond spread has also steepened to 1.00%. This suggests that markets are pricing in stronger growth, persistent inflation and a “higher for longer” interest rate environment.

现在的10年债券收益率为4.48％，5年债券收益率为4％，2年债券收益率为3.92％。自2021年10月以来，美国5年至30年的债券利差也是第一次降至1.00％。这表明市场在增长，持续的通货膨胀和“更长”的利率环境中的价格定价。

However, the rising interest rates are drastically increasing the cost of servicing the national debt, which has now surpassed $36.8 trillion. At these volumes, interest payments are expected to amount to $952 billion in 2025.

但是，利率上升幅度大大增加了为国家债务服务的成本，现已超过36.8万亿美元。在这些卷中，预计利息支付在2025年为9520亿美元。

Former U.S. President Donald Trump had mentioned on several occasions that lowering yields was among his top economic priorities. Nonetheless, this may prove far more difficult than he anticipates, as the two most reliable methods to achieve it both need to come from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）曾多次提到，降低的收益率是他的最高经济优先事项之一。但是，这可能比他预期的要困难得多，因为实现这一目标的两种最可靠的方法都需要来自美国美联储。

Lowering interest rates would make newly issued bonds yield less, rendering existing higher-yielding bonds more attractive, ultimately pushing up their price and lowering their effective yield.

降低利率将使新发行的债券收益率降低，从而使现有的较高收益债券更具吸引力，最终提高了价格并降低了其有效收益率。

Another way is through quantitative easing (QE), where the Fed would buy large amounts of bonds on the open market, thus increasing demand and lowering yields.

另一种方法是通过定量宽松（QE），美联储将在公开市场上购买大量债券，从而增加需求并降低收益率。

The Federal Reserve is currently resisting both strategies and taking caution to avoid reigniting inflation, especially amid the ongoing tariff war. Even if Trump finds a legal or quasi-legal way to pressure Fed Chair Jerome Powell, it could backfire by eroding investor confidence and produce the opposite of the intended effect.

美联储目前正在抵制这两种策略，并谨慎行事，以避免在持续的关税战争中重启通货膨胀。即使特朗普找到了一种法律或准法律的方式来压力喂养董事杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell），但它可能会适得其反，以侵蚀投资者的信心并产生预期效果的相反。

Investors do not appreciate any political meddling with the foundations of the U.S. and global economy, and their confidence is already fragile. In times of instability, investors traditionally flock to government bonds as a safe haven.

投资者不欣赏对美国和全球经济基础的任何政治干预，他们的信心已经脆弱。在不稳定时期，投资者传统上将政府债券作为避风港涌向政府债券。

But today, the opposite is happening. As investors are turning away from Treasuries, it suggests that the problems in the U.S. economy are becoming too large to ignore.

但是今天，情况正在发生。随着投资者远离国债，这表明美国经济中的问题变得太大而无法忽略。

World powers are largely focused on the macroeconomic outlook and how quickly the global economy can recover from the downturn. However, this narrative has largely focused on the threat of recession, while the broader macroeconomic trends are also important.

世界大国主要集中在宏观经济的前景上，以及全球经济从经济低迷中恢复的速度。但是，这种叙述主要集中在衰退的威胁上，而更广泛的宏观经济趋势也很重要。

After a brief period of stability, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has once again downgraded its outlook for global economic growth in 2024. According to the institution’s economists, the global economy is now expected to grow by 2.4% this year, down from the 2.7% growth rate predicted in April.

经过短暂的稳定，国际货币基金组织（IMF）再次降低了2024年全球经济增长的前景。根据该机构的经济学家的说法，现在，全球经济预计今年将增长2.4％，比4月预计的2.7％的增长率下降。

Moreover, the institution has also cut its outlook for 2025 to 3.0

此外，该机构还削减了2025年至3.0的前景