耗资20万亿美元的比特币市值机会

目前，比特币（BTC 0.95％）的市值约为2万亿美元。这大致符合巨大的七只科技股的估值

Right now, Bitcoin (BTC 0.95%) has a market cap of about $2 trillion. That's roughly in line with the valuations of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, which have valuations ranging from $1.5 trillion to just over $3 trillion.

目前，比特币（BTC 0.95％）的市值约为2万亿美元。这大致符合巨大的七种科技股的估值，估值从1.5万亿美元到刚好超过3万亿美元。

But there's an opportunity for Bitcoin to go much higher. In fact, a $20 trillion market cap might be possible by 2030. If investors begin to view Bitcoin as more than just an ultra-risky tech asset, it could unlock trillions of dollars in market cap. Let's take a closer look.

但是，比特币有机会更高。实际上，到2030年，可能会有20万亿美元的市值。如果投资者开始将比特币视为超级风险的技术资产，则可以在市值上释放数万亿美元。让我们仔细看一下。

What is Bitcoin, really?

什么是比特币？

In 2009, Bitcoin launched as a digital currency, built using blockchain technology and powered by an internal algorithm. Although Bitcoin differed from traditional fiat currencies (such as the U.S. dollar or the Japanese yen) in certain important ways, it was primarily designed to be a peer-to-peer electronic cash system.

2009年，比特币以一种数字货币推出，该数字货币是使用区块链技术建造的，并由内部算法供电。尽管比特币与传统的法定货币（例如美元或日元）不同，但它主要设计为对等电子现金系统。

As a result, one obvious use case for Bitcoin was as a medium of exchange. In other words, you were supposed to use Bitcoin to pay for things. But, alas, that use case has never fully materialized. When was the last time you used Bitcoin to pay for anything?

结果，一个明显的比特币用例是一种交换媒介。换句话说，您应该使用比特币来支付东西。但是，可惜的是，这种用例从未完全实现。您上次使用比特币付款的时间是什么时候？

That's why Bitcoin never went mainstream in its early years. Many people who used Bitcoin for payments were people engaged in dubious market dealings that required anonymity. That's the primary reason big institutional investors and Wall Street banks wouldn't touch Bitcoin with a 10-foot pole: There was a certain whiff of impropriety around it, and nobody could figure out what to do with it.

这就是为什么比特币早年从未成为主流的原因。许多使用比特币进行付款的人是从事需要匿名的可疑市场交易的人。这是大机构投资者和华尔街银行不会用10英尺杆碰比特币的主要原因：周围有一定的不当行为，没有人能弄清楚该怎么办。

But, over time, Bitcoin produced such spectacular returns, year in and year out (with a few years of catastrophic performance mixed in along the way), that many investors began to view it as a hyper-volatile, hyper-speculative tech asset with astonishing upside potential.

但是，随着时间的流逝，比特币在一年中和一年中产生了如此壮观的回报（在此过程中遇到了几年的灾难性表现），许多投资者开始将其视为一种超级挥发性的，超出的技术资产，具有惊人的上升潜力。

Forward-looking investors and entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley bought into this idea, and began accumulating Bitcoin at absurdly low valuations. For them, Bitcoin appeared to be a new type of tech investment opportunity, and they attempted to value it as such.

硅谷的前瞻性投资者和企业家购买了这个想法，并开始以荒谬的低估比特币。对他们来说，比特币似乎是一种新型的技术投资机会，他们试图这样珍视它。

Is Bitcoin now digital gold?

比特币现在是数字黄金吗？

Now, in 2025, Bitcoin has transformed yet again, into a unique asset that some are now calling digital gold. This final transformation could be the key to unlocking its true long-term value.

现在，在2025年，比特币再次改造成一个独特的资产，有些人现在称数字黄金。这种最终转型可能是释放其真实长期价值的关键。

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of SkyBridge Capital (and a former White House Communications Director during the first Trump presidency), briefly described this evolution of Bitcoin. He put it very succinctly: If Bitcoin is just a hyper-risky tech asset, then its true valuation is in the $1 trillion to $3 trillion range. That would put it on par with the Magnificent Seven tech stocks.

在最近接受彭博社（Bloomberg）的采访时，Skybridge Capital的创始人Anthony Scaramucci（在特朗普第一任总统期间是白宫通讯总监）的创始人，简要描述了比特币的这种演变。他简洁地说：如果比特币只是一个高风险的技术资产，那么其真正的估值在1万亿美元至3万亿美元的范围内。这将使它与宏伟的七只科技股相提并论。

But if Bitcoin truly is digital gold, Scaramucci says, then we need to think bigger. The total market cap of gold is roughly $22 trillion, so that logically becomes the new target for valuing Bitcoin. That's roughly 10 times the current valuation of Bitcoin, so we're talking about a future price of about $1 million, based on its current price of $104,000.

但是，如果比特币确实是数字黄金，那么我们需要思考更大。黄金的总市值约为22万亿美元，因此从逻辑上讲成为评估比特币的新目标。这大约是当前比特币估值的10倍，因此，我们谈论的是未来的价格约为100万美元，其目前的价格为104,000美元。

That might sound like a pie-in-the-sky valuation, except that a surprising number of big-name institutional investors are also tossing around $1 million price targets for Bitcoin. If you dig deep into their valuation models, they are also looking for ways to take into account Bitcoin's transformation into digital gold.

这听起来可能像是一个天空般的估值，除了令人惊讶的大型机构投资者还将比特币的价格目标付出了约100万美元的目标。如果您深入研究他们的估值模型，他们还在寻找考虑比特币转换为数字黄金的方法。

Two important Bitcoin metrics to watch

观看两个重要的比特币指标

If this digital-gold narrative really takes off, we should expect to see several key changes when it comes to Bitcoin. First of all, we should see a decrease in volatility. If people are no longer speculating in Bitcoin, but rather holding it for the long term, then volatility should decline over time.

如果这种数字元素的叙述真正起步，我们应该期望在比特币方面看到一些关键的变化。首先，我们应该看到波动率下降。如果人们不再猜测比特币，而是长期持有它，那么随着时间的流逝，波动率应该下降。

Image source: Getty Images.

图像来源：盖蒂图像。

Second, we should see an uptick in the number of Bitcoin owners worldwide. The way to measure that, says Scaramucci, is by looking at the number of active Bitcoin wallets. He's looking for Bitcoin to hit 1 billion users worldwide. At that point, nearly 1-in-8 people around the globe will hold at least a tiny sliver of Bitcoin.

其次，我们应该看到全球比特币所有者的数量上升。 Scaramucci说，衡量这一方法的方法是查看活跃的比特币钱包的数量。他正在寻找比特币以击中全球10亿用户。那时，全球近8人将至少拥有一小块比特币。

Based on data from Bitbo, a Bitcoin analytics platform, there are currently 200 million Bitcoin wallets worldwide, and about 100 million Bitcoin owners. (Just like some people have multiple bank accounts, some also have multiple Bitcoin wallets.) As a result, we should expect to see a nearly 10-fold increase in the number of Bitcoin users worldwide.

基于Bitbo的数据，Bitbo是一个比特币分析平台，目前在全球范围内有2亿个比特币钱包，约1亿比特币所有者。 （就像有些人有多个银行帐户一样，有些也有多个比特币钱包。）结果，我们应该期望全球比特币用户数量增加了近10倍。

Is the digital gold thesis correct?

数字黄金论文正确吗？

In the future, I will keep my eye on these two metrics. I will be tracking changes in Bitcoin's volatility over time, and monitoring the number of active Bitcoin wallets. If the digital gold narrative is correct, we should

将来，我将关注这两个指标。我将随着时间的推移跟踪比特币波动率的变化，并监视主动比特币钱包的数量。如果数字黄金叙述是正确的，我们应该