比特币仍然局限于狭窄的价格范围

自4月21日以来，比特币的价格范围较低，尽管众所周知，但自4月21日以来，比特币范围内限制在91500美元至95800美元之间。

Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow price range of $91,500 to $95,800 since April 21, despite predictions of a looming supply shock. While traders are anticipating a breakout, on-chain data tells a more nuanced story.

自4月21日以来，比特币的交易价格狭窄的价格范围为91,500至95,800美元，尽管预测了迫在眉睫的供应冲击。虽然交易者预计会出现突破，但链链数据讲述了一个更加细微的故事。

Carmelo Aleman, a contributor at CryptoQuant, examined several on-chain metrics and concluded that Bitcoin is “still far from a true supply shock.” His analysis highlights the fact that although exchange reserves have decreased, this alone will not bring about genuine scarcity without major capital inflows.

CryptoQuant的撰稿人Carmelo Aleman检查了几个链固定指标，并得出结论，比特币“仍然远离真正的供应冲击”。他的分析强调了一个事实，尽管交换储量有所减少，但仅此一项储备就不会带来真正的稀缺性，而没有重大的资本流入。

Bitcoin reserves held on exchanges decreased from 2,942,077 BTC on November 11 to 2,490,318 BTC by April 28, marking a 15.35% reduction. Though the decline is significant, Aleman stressed that this reduction is not enough to force a supply crunch on its own.

交易所持有的比特币储量从11月11日的2,942,077 BTC减少到4月28日的2,490,318 BTC，标志降低了15.35％。尽管下降很大，但阿莱曼强调，这种减少不足以迫使供应紧缩。

Capital Inflow Needed for Any Shock Scenario

任何冲击场景所需的资本流入

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s Realized Capitalization rose from $669.32 billion to $883.03 billion during the same timeframe. This figure represents the total capital invested, calculated using the price of each coin at the time it last moved. The rise signals growing network value, not just speculation.

同时，比特币的实现资本化从同一时间范围内的6693.2亿美元增加到了8830.3亿美元。该数字代表了投资的总资本，该资本是使用上次移动时的每个硬币的价格计算的。上升信号增长网络价值，而不仅仅是投机。

Aleman stated that pushing Bitcoin’s price to between $130,000 and $140,000 would require the purchase of around 500,000 BTC at current prices. Yet, such a rally would likely provoke selling activity among miners. As prices climb, miners tend to cash out, introducing fresh supply that counters shrinking exchange reserves.

阿勒曼（Aleman）表示，将比特币的价格推向130,000美元至140,000美元之间，需要以当前价格购买约500,000 BTC。但是，这样的集会可能会引起矿工的销售活动。随着价格上涨，矿工倾向于兑现，引入了反对交换储量收缩的新鲜供应。

He explained that “this behavior could counteract the decline in exchange reserves, since historically, miners tend to sell more as the price goes up.” In this way, even a sharp price increase might not result in true scarcity, since miners can flood the market when incentives are high.

他解释说：“这种行为可以抵消交换储备中的下降，因为从历史上看，随着价格上涨，矿工倾向于销售更多。”这样，即使价格急剧上涨也可能不会导致真正的稀缺性，因为当激励措施很高时，矿工可能会淹没市场。

For Bitcoin to experience a true supply shock, Aleman concluded that the network’s Realized Capitalization would need to triple or quadruple. Without that scale of inflow, current market behavior does not support a genuine shock scenario.

为了使比特币经历真正的供应冲击，Aleman得出结论，该网络已实现的资本化需要三倍或四倍。没有那种流入量表，当前的市场行为将不支持真正的冲击场景。

Bitcoin Technical Indicators Offer Hope Amid Caution

比特币技术指标在谨慎的情况下提供希望

Despite the cautious forecast, not all signals are negative. Analyst Ali Martinez pointed to a potential shift in sentiment, highlighting that “Bitcoin momentum could shift bullish” once the MVRV ratio crosses above its 1-year simple moving average. This technical pattern has previously marked the start of strong upward trends.

尽管预测谨慎，但并非所有信号都是负面的。分析师阿里·马丁内斯（Ali Martinez）指出，情绪的潜在转变，强调一旦MVRV比率超过其一年的简单移动平均线，“比特币动量可能会改变看涨”。这种技术模式以前已经标志着强大的向上趋势的开始。

In a separate analysis, Martinez also shared the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) chart, which highlights key Bitcoin accumulation zones—specifically at $83,444 with 307,931 BTC, $93,198 with 639,830 BTC, and $97,532 with 433,937 BTC. These zones represent key levels where many investors bought in and could act as support or resistance.

在另一项分析中，马丁内斯还共享了UTXO实现的价格分布（URPD）图表，该图表突出了关键比特币积累区 - 特别是$ 83,444，售价为307,931 BTC，$ 93,198，售价为639,830 BTC，$ 97,532，$ 97,532，43333,937 BTC。这些区域代表了许多投资者购买的关键水平，并且可以作为支持或抵抗。

Of these, $97,530 stands out. With over 433,000 BTC traded at that level, Martinez identified it as a critical resistance point. Surpassing it could clear the way to break toward new highs, assuming demand remains strong.

其中，$ 97,530突出。马丁内斯将超过433,000个BTC交易，将其确定为关键的阻力点。假设需求仍然很强劲，那么超越它可以清除迈向新高点的道路。

The levels of $83,444 and $93,198 provide support, due to a dense concentration of holdings. These ranges suggest confidence from long-term holders and reinforce an overall positive sentiment, even as broader market conditions remain cautious.

由于浓度的持有量，$ 83,444和93,198美元的水平提供了支持。这些范围表明，长期持有人的信心并增强了整体积极的情绪，即使更广泛的市场状况仍然谨慎。