比特幣仍然局限於狹窄的價格範圍

自4月21日以來，比特幣的價格範圍較低，儘管眾所周知，但自4月21日以來，比特幣範圍內限制在91500美元至95800美元之間。

Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow price range of $91,500 to $95,800 since April 21, despite predictions of a looming supply shock. While traders are anticipating a breakout, on-chain data tells a more nuanced story.

自4月21日以來，比特幣的交易價格狹窄的價格範圍為91,500至95,800美元，儘管預測了迫在眉睫的供應衝擊。雖然交易者預計會出現突破，但鍊鍊數據講述了一個更加細微的故事。

Carmelo Aleman, a contributor at CryptoQuant, examined several on-chain metrics and concluded that Bitcoin is “still far from a true supply shock.” His analysis highlights the fact that although exchange reserves have decreased, this alone will not bring about genuine scarcity without major capital inflows.

CryptoQuant的撰稿人Carmelo Aleman檢查了幾個鏈固定指標，並得出結論，比特幣“仍然遠離真正的供應衝擊”。他的分析強調了一個事實，儘管交換儲量有所減少，但僅此一項儲備就不會帶來真正的稀缺性，而沒有重大的資本流入。

Bitcoin reserves held on exchanges decreased from 2,942,077 BTC on November 11 to 2,490,318 BTC by April 28, marking a 15.35% reduction. Though the decline is significant, Aleman stressed that this reduction is not enough to force a supply crunch on its own.

交易所持有的比特幣儲量從11月11日的2,942,077 BTC減少到4月28日的2,490,318 BTC，標誌降低了15.35％。儘管下降很大，但阿萊曼強調，這種減少不足以迫使供應緊縮。

Capital Inflow Needed for Any Shock Scenario

任何衝擊場景所需的資本流入

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s Realized Capitalization rose from $669.32 billion to $883.03 billion during the same timeframe. This figure represents the total capital invested, calculated using the price of each coin at the time it last moved. The rise signals growing network value, not just speculation.

同時，比特幣的實現資本化從同一時間範圍內的6693.2億美元增加到了8830.3億美元。該數字代表了投資的總資本，該資本是使用上次移動時的每個硬幣的價格計算的。上升信號增長網絡價值，而不僅僅是投機。

Aleman stated that pushing Bitcoin’s price to between $130,000 and $140,000 would require the purchase of around 500,000 BTC at current prices. Yet, such a rally would likely provoke selling activity among miners. As prices climb, miners tend to cash out, introducing fresh supply that counters shrinking exchange reserves.

阿勒曼（Aleman）表示，將比特幣的價格推向130,000美元至140,000美元之間，需要以當前價格購買約500,000 BTC。但是，這樣的集會可能會引起礦工的銷售活動。隨著價格上漲，礦工傾向於兌現，引入了反對交換儲量收縮的新鮮供應。

He explained that “this behavior could counteract the decline in exchange reserves, since historically, miners tend to sell more as the price goes up.” In this way, even a sharp price increase might not result in true scarcity, since miners can flood the market when incentives are high.

他解釋說：“這種行為可以抵消交換儲備中的下降，因為從歷史上看，隨著價格上漲，礦工傾向於銷售更多。”這樣，即使價格急劇上漲也可能不會導致真正的稀缺性，因為當激勵措施很高時，礦工可能會淹沒市場。

For Bitcoin to experience a true supply shock, Aleman concluded that the network’s Realized Capitalization would need to triple or quadruple. Without that scale of inflow, current market behavior does not support a genuine shock scenario.

為了使比特幣經歷真正的供應衝擊，Aleman得出結論，該網絡已實現的資本化需要三倍或四倍。沒有那種流入量表，當前的市場行為將不支持真正的衝擊場景。

Bitcoin Technical Indicators Offer Hope Amid Caution

比特幣技術指標在謹慎的情況下提供希望

Despite the cautious forecast, not all signals are negative. Analyst Ali Martinez pointed to a potential shift in sentiment, highlighting that “Bitcoin momentum could shift bullish” once the MVRV ratio crosses above its 1-year simple moving average. This technical pattern has previously marked the start of strong upward trends.

儘管預測謹慎，但並非所有信號都是負面的。分析師阿里·馬丁內斯（Ali Martinez）指出，情緒的潛在轉變，強調一旦MVRV比率超過其一年的簡單移動平均線，“比特幣動量可能會改變看漲”。這種技術模式以前已經標誌著強大的向上趨勢的開始。

In a separate analysis, Martinez also shared the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) chart, which highlights key Bitcoin accumulation zones—specifically at $83,444 with 307,931 BTC, $93,198 with 639,830 BTC, and $97,532 with 433,937 BTC. These zones represent key levels where many investors bought in and could act as support or resistance.

在另一項分析中，馬丁內斯還共享了UTXO實現的價格分佈（URPD）圖表，該圖表突出了關鍵比特幣積累區 - 特別是$ 83,444，售價為307,931 BTC，$ 93,198，售價為639,830 BTC，$ 97,532，$ 97,532，43333,937 BTC。這些區域代表了許多投資者購買的關鍵水平，並且可以作為支持或抵抗。

Of these, $97,530 stands out. With over 433,000 BTC traded at that level, Martinez identified it as a critical resistance point. Surpassing it could clear the way to break toward new highs, assuming demand remains strong.

其中，$ 97,530突出。馬丁內斯將超過433,000個BTC交易，將其確定為關鍵的阻力點。假設需求仍然很強勁，那麼超越它可以清除邁向新高點的道路。

The levels of $83,444 and $93,198 provide support, due to a dense concentration of holdings. These ranges suggest confidence from long-term holders and reinforce an overall positive sentiment, even as broader market conditions remain cautious.

由於濃度的持有量，$ 83,444和93,198美元的水平提供了支持。這些範圍表明，長期持有人的信心並增強了整體積極的情緒，即使更廣泛的市場狀況仍然謹慎。