比特币集会有风险吗？鲸鱼情绪指示信号警告

加密分析公司Alphractal在比特币市场中强调了新的信号，这表明主要参与者可能正在改变其策略。

Crypto analytics firm Alphractal has spotted fresh signals in the Bitcoin market, suggesting that major players may be shifting their strategies.

加密分析公司Alphractal在比特币市场上发现了新的信号，这表明主要参与者可能正在改变其策略。

As Bitcoin approached $95,000, large-scale investors, commonly referred to as whales, began pivoting away from long positions and started favoring shorts.

随着比特币接近95,000美元，通常称为鲸鱼的大规模投资者开始偏离长位置并开始偏爱短裤。

This shift is being tracked through Alphractal’s “Whale Position Sentiment” tool, which evaluates trades over $1 million across key exchanges alongside open interest data to gauge institutional sentiment.

这一转变正在通过字母的“鲸鱼位置情绪”工具进行跟踪，该工具评估了在关键交易所以及开放兴趣数据以及衡量机构情绪的一笔交易中的交易。

A drop in the indicator while prices climb typically signals that whales are hedging or betting against further gains, while a rise tends to align with bullish momentum.

指标下降时，价格上涨通常表明鲸鱼正在对冲或投注进一步的收益，而上升往往与看涨的势头保持一致。

This metric has shown a striking 93% historical correlation with Bitcoin’s price movements, making it one of the more reliable behavioral signals in the space.

该指标与比特币的价格变动显示了93％的历史相关性，使其成为该领域中最可靠的行为信号之一。

Alphractal says if this trend continues, it could spell trouble for Bitcoin.

字母说，如果这种趋势继续下去，它可能会给比特币带来麻烦。

“We observe that the ‘Whale Position Sentiment' dropped sharply again. If this downward trend persists, it could put pressure on BTC for a pullback. Conversely, stabilization in this metric could reinforce the ongoing rally.”

“我们观察到'鲸鱼位置情绪'再次下降了。如果这种向下的趋势持续存在，它可能会给BTC造成回调的压力。相反，该指标的稳定可以加强正在进行的集会。”

Looking ahead, the company’s long-term Power Law projection suggests Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $45,000 by 2026, regardless of short-term volatility.

展望未来，该公司的长期电力法投影表明，到2026年，无论短期波动率如何，比特币都不太可能低于45,000美元。