Bitcoin Rally at Risk? Whale Sentiment Indicator Signals Warning

Crypto analytics firm Alphractal has highlighted fresh signals in the Bitcoin market, suggesting that major players may be shifting their strategies.

Crypto analytics firm Alphractal has spotted fresh signals in the Bitcoin market, suggesting that major players may be shifting their strategies.

As Bitcoin approached $95,000, large-scale investors, commonly referred to as whales, began pivoting away from long positions and started favoring shorts.

This shift is being tracked through Alphractal’s “Whale Position Sentiment” tool, which evaluates trades over $1 million across key exchanges alongside open interest data to gauge institutional sentiment.

A drop in the indicator while prices climb typically signals that whales are hedging or betting against further gains, while a rise tends to align with bullish momentum.

This metric has shown a striking 93% historical correlation with Bitcoin’s price movements, making it one of the more reliable behavioral signals in the space.

Alphractal says if this trend continues, it could spell trouble for Bitcoin.

“We observe that the ‘Whale Position Sentiment' dropped sharply again. If this downward trend persists, it could put pressure on BTC for a pullback. Conversely, stabilization in this metric could reinforce the ongoing rally.”

Looking ahead, the company’s long-term Power Law projection suggests Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $45,000 by 2026, regardless of short-term volatility.