比特币在过去24小时内的价格动作以高度波动的阶段为标志

在过去的24小时内，这种强烈的波动表明，比特币价格在达到价格上涨之前还有很长的路要走。

Bitcoin’s price action in the past 24 hours has been marked by a highly volatile phase that saw it briefly reach above the $106,000 mark. However, this was followed by a return to consolidation around the $103,000 price level.

在过去的24小时内，比特币的价格行动以极高的波动阶段为标志，该阶段的价格短暂超过了106,000美元。但是，随后，返回了103,000美元的价格水平的合并。

This intense volatility in the past 24 hours suggests that the Bitcoin price still has a long way to go before it reaches a price top. Amid this volatile movement, a new macroeconomic model, the Decode Macro Trend Oscillator (MTO), has pointed out when to expect Bitcoin’s price to top this cycle.

在过去的24小时内，这种强烈的波动表明，比特币价格在达到价格上涨之前还有很长的路要走。在这种动荡的运动中，一种新的宏观经济模型，解码宏趋势振荡器（MTO）指出了何时期望比特币的价格超过这一周期。

Decode’s Macro Trend Oscillator Model And Its Alignment With Bitcoin Peaks

解码的宏趋势振荡器模型及其与比特币峰的对齐

The Decode Macro Trend Oscillator is a model devised by an analyst known as Decode on X. It’s a sophisticated tool that aggregates around 40 macroeconomic indicators into 17 leading metrics.

解码宏趋势振荡器是由X上称为Decode的分析师设计的模型。这是一种复杂的工具，将大约40个宏观经济指标汇总为17个领先的指标。

These are then normalized and visualized as a histogram to produce a cyclical pattern that has historically aligned with major Bitcoin tops.

然后将它们归一化并将其视为直方图，以产生与主要比特币顶部一致的周期性模式。

A close look at the Bitcoin Liquid Index on the 1M candlestick timeframe reveals that the light green histogram bars have coincided with each of Bitcoin’s cycle peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. These peaks are marked by vertical red lines, and the transitions from deep red to green territory on the oscillator appear to offer a visual cue for the end of bearish phases and the onset of price rallies. As of May 2025, the histogram remains in a deep red zone but has begun inching upward, with the most recent bar reading at -11.47, suggesting that macroeconomic conditions may soon start to favor a bigger rally for Bitcoin.

A close look at the Bitcoin Liquid Index on the 1M candlestick timeframe reveals that the light green histogram bars have coincided with each of Bitcoin's cycle peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. These peaks are marked by vertical red lines, and the transitions from deep red to green territory on the oscillator appear to offer a visual cue for the end of bearish phases and the onset of price rallies.截至2025年5月，直方图仍处于深红色区域，但开始向上延伸，最新的栏读数为-11.47，这表明宏观经济状况可能很快开始支持更大的比特币集会。

BTC Mode Configuration Fine-Tunes Cycle Top Prediction

BTC模式配置微调周期顶部预测

One of the accompanying charts of the S&P 500 Index of the 2M timeframe showcases a long-term comparison between the current global environment and the economic backdrop of the late 1980s and early 1990s. Interestingly, Decode’s macro trend oscillator proved reliable in estimating periods of downturns and expansions in both instances.

2M时间范围的标准普尔500指数的随附图表之一展示了当前的全球环境与1980年代末和1990年代初的经济背景之间的长期比较。有趣的是，在两种情况下，Decode的宏观趋势振荡器在估计衰退和扩张期的估计期间都是可靠的。

In both instances, inflation pressure and declining consumer sentiment pushed the oscillator deep into negative territory for years. However, once the histogram flipped into the green, the economy and prices entered a prolonged phase of expansion.

在这两种情况下，通货膨胀压力和消费者情绪的下降都将振荡器推向了多年的消极领域。但是，一旦直方图转入绿色，经济和价格就会延长扩张阶段。

The third chart offers a more detailed view of Bitcoin’s weekly trend, including an overlay of M2 money supply growth, which is another popular monetary metric. This view highlights how the Macro Trend Oscillator, when switched to a configuration Decode called “Bitcoin Mode,” fine-tunes its sensitivity to metrics that directly impact crypto markets. In this configuration, only a few of the full 17 metrics that best identify Bitcoin cycle tops are used.

第三张图表提供了比特币每周趋势的更详细的看法，其中包括M2货币供应增长的覆盖层，这是另一个流行的货币指标。该视图强调了宏趋势振荡器在切换到称为“比特币模式”的配置解码时如何微调其对直接影响加密市场的指标的敏感性。在这种配置中，只使用了最佳识别比特币周期顶部的整个17个指标中的少数几个。

As it stands, Bitcoin is still in the negative red histogram zone, even despite its rally in recent months. The first deep green histogram has yet to show up, not to mention the first light green bar that will mark the cycle peak. Based on this setup, the oscillator implies that Bitcoin still has a lot of room to run this cycle, and that a price top is unlikely to arrive in 2025.

就目前而言，即使最近几个月的集会，比特币仍处于负红色直方图区域。第一个深绿色直方图尚未显示，更不用说第一个标志着周期峰的浅绿色条。基于此设置，振荡器意味着比特币仍然有很大的运行空间来运行此周期，而且价格顶不太可能在2025年到达。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $103,300.

在写作时，比特币的交易价格为103,300美元。