以太坊的狂野骑行：导航波动和新风险

以太坊的波动并不是什么新鲜事物，但是随着借贷率和市场变化的上升，加密巨头会出现新的风险吗？让我们潜水。

Ethereum's Wild Ride: Navigating Volatility and New Risks

以太坊的狂野骑行：导航波动和新风险

Ethereum, the darling of DeFi and NFTs, has always been known for its, shall we say, *spirited* price action. But with recent market shifts and rising concerns, it's time to ask: are we entering a new era of volatility and risk for the world's second-largest cryptocurrency?

Defi和Nfts的宠儿以太坊一直以其闻名，我们要说的是 *富有活力的价格行动。但是，随着最近的市场转变和不断上升的担忧，该问：我们是否进入了世界第二大加密货币的新时代和风险？

ETF Inflows Signal Institutional Confidence

ETF流入信号机构信心

Let's start with the good news. As of July 23, Ethereum-based ETFs have seen a whopping $332 million in new inflows over 14 consecutive days. BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) is leading the charge, snagging $325 million of that total. This surge suggests that big players are increasingly seeing Ethereum as a legitimate and liquid asset. They're drawn to its role as the backbone for dApps, DeFi, and the whole NFT shebang.

让我们从好消息开始。截至7月23日，以太坊的ETF连续14天的新流入率达到了3.32亿美元。贝莱德（BlackRock）的iShares以太坊信托（ETHA）正在领导这一指控，其中3.25亿美元的总数。这次激增表明，大型参与者越来越多地将以太坊视为合法和流动资产。它们被其作为Dapps，Defi和整个NFT Shebang的骨干而吸引。

Bitcoin's Blues: A Shift in Institutional Appetite?

比特币的蓝调：机构食欲转变？

Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs are singing a different tune, recording $85.9 million in outflows on the same day. While Bitcoin remains the king of crypto market cap, this divergence hints at a possible shift in institutional interest towards Ethereum. Factors driving this include Ethereum's ongoing tech upgrades (like the energy-efficient proof-of-stake model) and its expanding ecosystem.

同时，比特币景点ETF正在演唱不同的音调，同一天的流出量为8,590万美元。尽管比特币仍然是加密市政府的国王，但这种差异暗示了机构利益向以太坊的转变。推动此推动的因素包括以太坊正在进行的技术升级（例如节能验证模型）及其扩展的生态系统。

The Borrowing Rate Buzzkill

借用利率嗡嗡声

Now for the not-so-sunny side. Borrowing costs for wETH on platforms like Aave have been skyrocketing since early July. Utilization rates have jumped from 86% to a near-saturation point of 95%. This makes borrowing less profitable, potentially triggering a rapid unwind of positions, forced liquidations, and liquidity withdrawals. As Markus Thielen notes, these rising borrowing costs can make borrowing ETH unprofitable.

现在是不太弱的一面。自7月初以来，WETH在AAVE等平台上的借入费用一直在飞涨。利用率从86％跃升至近乎饱和点95％。这使得借入盈利较低，可能会引发立场，强迫清算和流动性提取的快速脱颖而出。正如马库斯·泰伦（Markus Thielen）所指出的那样，这些不断上涨的借贷成本可以使借贷ETH无利可图。

Historical Context: The 'Ethereum is Dead' Narrative

历史背景：“以太坊死了”的叙述

It's worth remembering that Ethereum has faced doomsayers before. Back in 2017, some folks were listing all sorts of reasons why Ethereum was doomed. Network congestion, lack of use cases, high volatility – the whole shebang. Back then, ETH was trading around $281.80. Today? It's hovering around $3,600, proving that Ethereum has a knack for surviving (and thriving) despite the naysayers.

值得记住的是，以太坊以前曾面临过厄运者。早在2017年，一些人就列出了各种以太坊注定要失败的原因。网络拥塞，缺乏用例，高波动性 - 整个Shebang。当时，ETH的交易约为281.80美元。今天？它徘徊在3,600美元左右，证明以太坊在反对者中仍然有生存（繁荣）的诀窍。

A Word of Caution: Q3 Historically Weak

注意：Q3历史上很弱

Historically, Q3 tends to be the weakest quarter for Ethereum, averaging around +8.19% compared to Q4's +22.59% (since 2013). So, while the ETF inflows are encouraging, history suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride.

从历史上看，第三季度往往是以太坊的最弱季度，平均 +8.19％，而第四季度的 +22.59％（自2013年以来）。因此，尽管ETF流入令人鼓舞，但历史表明我们可能会遇到颠簸。

My Take: Innovation Outweighs Short-Term Volatility

我的看法：创新超过短期波动

While the rising borrowing rates and historical trends raise valid concerns, I believe Ethereum's long-term potential remains strong. The continuous development and expansion of its ecosystem, coupled with growing institutional adoption through ETFs, suggest that Ethereum is more than just a fleeting trend. It's a foundational technology with the potential to reshape finance and other industries. The recent ETF inflows demonstrate this point clearly, signaling a shift toward use-case-driven crypto investments.

尽管借贷率和历史趋势的上升引起了有效的关注，但我认为以太坊的长期潜力仍然很强。其生态系统的持续发展和扩展，再加上通过ETF的制度采用不断增长，这表明以太坊不仅仅是短暂的趋势。这是一种基础技术，具有重塑金融和其他行业的潜力。最近的ETF流入清楚地表明了这一点，这表明向用用例驱动的加密投资转变。

Final Thoughts

最后的想法

So, is Ethereum facing new risks? Absolutely. Is it going to zero tomorrow? Probably not. As always, buckle up, do your own research, and remember that in the world of crypto, volatility is just part of the fun. Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm off to check my portfolio... and maybe pour myself a stiff drink.

那么，以太坊面临新风险吗？绝对地。明天要零吗？可能不是。与往常一样，搭扣，进行自己的研究，并记住，在加密货币世界中，波动只是乐趣的一部分。现在，如果您能原谅我，我要去检查我的投资组合……也许我会喝一杯僵硬的饮料。