比特幣在過去24小時內的價格動作以高度波動的階段為標誌

在過去的24小時內，這種強烈的波動表明，比特幣價格在達到價格上漲之前還有很長的路要走。

Bitcoin’s price action in the past 24 hours has been marked by a highly volatile phase that saw it briefly reach above the $106,000 mark. However, this was followed by a return to consolidation around the $103,000 price level.

在過去的24小時內，比特幣的價格行動以極高的波動階段為標誌，該階段的價格短暫超過了106,000美元。但是，隨後，返回了103,000美元的價格水平的合併。

This intense volatility in the past 24 hours suggests that the Bitcoin price still has a long way to go before it reaches a price top. Amid this volatile movement, a new macroeconomic model, the Decode Macro Trend Oscillator (MTO), has pointed out when to expect Bitcoin’s price to top this cycle.

在過去的24小時內，這種強烈的波動表明，比特幣價格在達到價格上漲之前還有很長的路要走。在這種動蕩的運動中，一種新的宏觀經濟模型，解碼宏趨勢振盪器（MTO）指出了何時期望比特幣的價格超過這一周期。

Decode’s Macro Trend Oscillator Model And Its Alignment With Bitcoin Peaks

解碼的宏趨勢振盪器模型及其與比特幣峰的對齊

The Decode Macro Trend Oscillator is a model devised by an analyst known as Decode on X. It’s a sophisticated tool that aggregates around 40 macroeconomic indicators into 17 leading metrics.

解碼宏趨勢振盪器是由X上稱為Decode的分析師設計的模型。這是一種複雜的工具，將大約40個宏觀經濟指標匯總為17個領先的指標。

These are then normalized and visualized as a histogram to produce a cyclical pattern that has historically aligned with major Bitcoin tops.

然後將它們歸一化並將其視為直方圖，以產生與主要比特幣頂部一致的周期性模式。

A close look at the Bitcoin Liquid Index on the 1M candlestick timeframe reveals that the light green histogram bars have coincided with each of Bitcoin’s cycle peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. These peaks are marked by vertical red lines, and the transitions from deep red to green territory on the oscillator appear to offer a visual cue for the end of bearish phases and the onset of price rallies. As of May 2025, the histogram remains in a deep red zone but has begun inching upward, with the most recent bar reading at -11.47, suggesting that macroeconomic conditions may soon start to favor a bigger rally for Bitcoin.

A close look at the Bitcoin Liquid Index on the 1M candlestick timeframe reveals that the light green histogram bars have coincided with each of Bitcoin's cycle peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021. These peaks are marked by vertical red lines, and the transitions from deep red to green territory on the oscillator appear to offer a visual cue for the end of bearish phases and the onset of price rallies.截至2025年5月，直方圖仍處於深紅色區域，但開始向上延伸，最新的欄讀數為-11.47，這表明宏觀經濟狀況可能很快開始支持更大的比特幣集會。

BTC Mode Configuration Fine-Tunes Cycle Top Prediction

BTC模式配置微調週期頂部預測

One of the accompanying charts of the S&P 500 Index of the 2M timeframe showcases a long-term comparison between the current global environment and the economic backdrop of the late 1980s and early 1990s. Interestingly, Decode’s macro trend oscillator proved reliable in estimating periods of downturns and expansions in both instances.

2M時間範圍的標準普爾500指數的隨附圖表之一展示了當前的全球環境與1980年代末和1990年代初的經濟背景之間的長期比較。有趣的是，在兩種情況下，Decode的宏觀趨勢振盪器在估計衰退和擴張期的估計期間都是可靠的。

In both instances, inflation pressure and declining consumer sentiment pushed the oscillator deep into negative territory for years. However, once the histogram flipped into the green, the economy and prices entered a prolonged phase of expansion.

在這兩種情況下，通貨膨脹壓力和消費者情緒的下降都將振盪器推向了多年的消極領域。但是，一旦直方圖轉入綠色，經濟和價格就會延長擴張階段。

The third chart offers a more detailed view of Bitcoin’s weekly trend, including an overlay of M2 money supply growth, which is another popular monetary metric. This view highlights how the Macro Trend Oscillator, when switched to a configuration Decode called “Bitcoin Mode,” fine-tunes its sensitivity to metrics that directly impact crypto markets. In this configuration, only a few of the full 17 metrics that best identify Bitcoin cycle tops are used.

第三張圖表提供了比特幣每週趨勢的更詳細的看法，其中包括M2貨幣供應增長的覆蓋層，這是另一個流行的貨幣指標。該視圖強調了宏趨勢振盪器在切換到稱為“比特幣模式”的配置解碼時如何微調其對直接影響加密市場的指標的敏感性。在這種配置中，只使用了最佳識別比特幣週期頂部的整個17個指標中的少數幾個。

As it stands, Bitcoin is still in the negative red histogram zone, even despite its rally in recent months. The first deep green histogram has yet to show up, not to mention the first light green bar that will mark the cycle peak. Based on this setup, the oscillator implies that Bitcoin still has a lot of room to run this cycle, and that a price top is unlikely to arrive in 2025.

就目前而言，即使最近幾個月的集會，比特幣仍處於負紅色直方圖區域。第一個深綠色直方圖尚未顯示，更不用說第一個標誌著周期峰的淺綠色條。基於此設置，振盪器意味著比特幣仍然有很大的運行空間來運行此週期，而且價格頂不太可能在2025年到達。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $103,300.

在寫作時，比特幣的交易價格為103,300美元。