比特币（BTC）交易者在等待美国经济政策的信号随着数据迫使美联储陷入困境。

消息人士称，在失业和复兴通货膨胀率上升，经济衰退很可能。比特币和风险资产最终应从经济衰退冲击中获得。

Key points:

要点：

Bitcoin traders are waiting for signals of US economic policy loosening as data forces the Federal Reserve into a corner.

比特币交易者正在等待美国经济政策的信号，因为数据将美联储陷入了角落。

A recession is more likely than not, sources say, amid rising unemployment and resurgent inflation.

消息人士称，由于失业和复兴通货膨胀率的增加，经济衰退很可能。

Bitcoin and risk assets should ultimately gain from a recession shock.

比特币和风险资产最终应从经济衰退冲击中获得。

Bitcoin (BTC) stands to gain as a US recession becomes the “base case scenario.”

比特币（BTC）随着美国衰退成为“基本案例场景”而获得的。

Fresh analysis from sources including trading resource The Kobeissi Letter makes grim predictions for the US economy and Federal Reserve.

来自包括交易资源的来源的新分析Kobeissi信件对美国经济和美联储进行了严峻的预测。

Fed’s ‘worst nightmare’ gets real

美联储的“最糟糕的噩梦”变得真实

US economic health is due to take a hit on the back of trade tariffs and the resurgent inflation, which may accompany them.

美国的经济健康将遭受贸易关税和复兴通货膨胀的影响，这可能伴随它们。

The latest macroeconomic data, which includes Q1 GDP and the Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge, puts officials in a tight spot, Kobeissi says.

Kobeissi说，最新的宏观经济数据包括Q1 GDP和美联储的“首选”通货膨胀量表，使官员处于狭窄状态。

GDP came in markedly below expectations, turning negative against a 0.3% gain in the forecast.

GDP明显低于预期，而预测的增长率为0.3％。

“Effectively, the Fed must pick between containing either inflation or unemployment,” it summarized, calling the situation the Fed’s “worst nightmare.”

它总结说：“有效地，美联储必须在包含通货膨胀或失业率之间进行选择。”

A key issue is the extent and timing of any interest rate cuts — something that crypto and risk-asset traders are keenly eyeing thanks to the positive knock-on effect for markets.

一个关键问题是任何降低利率的程度和时机 - 由于市场对市场的积极敲门效应，加密货币和风险资产交易者敏锐地关注这一点。

“Not reducing interest rates will further weaken US GDP and likely increase unemployment. However, if interest rates are cut immediately, we would expect to see another rebound in inflation.”

“不降低利率会进一步削弱美国国内生产总值并可能增加失业率。但是，如果立即降低利率，我们希望在通货膨胀中再次反弹。”

Thus in a “lose-lose” situation, the Fed faces the threat of both stagflation — rising inflation with rising unemployment — and a full-on recession.

因此，在“失败”的情况下，美联储面临着停滞的威胁 - 通货膨胀率上升，失业率上升 - 以及全面的衰退。

“A recession in the US has become our base case scenario,” Kobeissi added, linking to rising odds on prediction service Kalshi.

Kobeissi补充说：“美国的经济衰退已成为我们的基本案例情况。”

Bitcoin analyst sees recession silver lining

比特币分析师看到经济衰退的银线

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool underscores market expectations for Fed policy, which has remained conservative through 2025 despite the insistence of US President Donald Trump that rates head lower.

CME Group的FedWatch工具的最新数据强调了美联储政策的市场期望，尽管美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）坚持认为，该政策一直是保守的，但降低了评分。

Related: Bitcoin 'hot supply' nears $40B as new investors flood in at $95K

相关：随着新投资者洪水涌入95,000美元，比特币“热供应”接近$ 40B

The June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is currently the event that should spark the next 0.25% cut, consensus suggests. The May meeting, however, now has just 3% odds of such an outcome.

共识表明，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的6月会议目前是将下一个0.25％削减的事件。但是，五月会议现在只有3％的赔率。

Meanwhile, crypto market participants are weighing the possible Fed course as conditions become increasingly hard to navigate.

同时，随着条件变得越来越难以导航，加密市场参与者正在权衡可能的美联储课程。

“Yesterday, the market was pricing 57% probability of 25bps cut for June 18th FOMC. Today it's 63%,” popular trader Skew commented on the FedWatch data.

“昨天，市场定价为6月18日FOMC的25bps削减的可能性。今天是63％，”受欢迎的商人对FedWatch数据发表了评论。

Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe predicted that recession alone would cause the Fed to rethink its stance.

加密交易员，分析师和企业家MichaëlVande Poppe预测，仅衰退就会导致美联储重新考虑其立场。

“The rumours for a potential recession is increasing, which should strengthen the thesis for the FED to loosen up the policy,” he wrote in part of an X reaction to Q1 GDP data.

他在X对Q1 GDP数据的一部分反应中写道：“潜在衰退的谣言正在增加，这应该加强美联储放松政策的论文。”