随着鲸鱼在另类季节之前旋转为中盖，降低（RTX）的预测变得保守

图表显示了一个明显的转变：intotheblock的链链信息显示ETH的巨大Netflow在六个月内首次否定

Litecoin predictions have become unexpectedly conservative as the traders move into mid-caps ahead of the upcoming alt-season. The sentiment flip is merely weeks away from the strongly anticipated May catalyst window, and early positioning suggests whales favoring skinnier payment-focused tokens over seasoned smart-contract behemoths.

随着贸易商在即将到来的另类季节之前，莱特币的预测变得出乎意料地保守。情绪翻转仅距离强烈预期的催化剂窗口只有几周的路程，而早期定位表明，鲸鱼比经验丰富的智能合同庞然大物更喜欢更瘦的付款方式。

Next, we analyze why capital may exit ETH in the near future, why Litecoin’s halving narrative is back in the headlines again, and where Remittix (RTX) fits into a portfolio that aims to outperform both.

接下来，我们分析了为什么资本可以在不久的将来退出ETH，为什么莱特币的叙事减半又重新成为头条新闻，而Remittix（RTX）则适合旨在胜过两者兼而有之的投资组合。

Macro Rotation Weighs on Ethereum Price, Litecoin Picks Up

宏旋转的重量以太坊价格，莱特币拾取

宏旋转的重量以太坊价格，莱特币拾取

Charts show a clear shift: on-chain information from IntoTheBlock shows ETH’s gigantic-holder netflow turning negative for the first time in six months, as inactive Litecoin accounts are activated. Traders explain the divergence by citing “Ethereum Price, Litecoin risk-reward asymmetry.”

图表显示了一个明显的变化：来自intotheblock的链上信息显示ETH的巨型NetFlow在六个月内首次呈负面变化，因为不活动的Litecoin帐户被激活。交易者通过引用“以太坊价格，莱特币风险 - 奖励不对称”来解释这种差异。

At $1,779.40, ETH must rise 181 % just to reach its previous peak, while LTC, at $84.08, needs only 96 % to overcome its 2021 high. That math is encouraging whales to diversify out of expensive Layer-1 and into lighter assets that will still double before testing historic resistance. Driving the shift is ETH’s sluggish fee market.

以1,779.40美元的价格，ETH必须上涨181％，以达到其先前的峰值，而LTC（84.08美元）只需要96％即可克服其2021年高点。该数学鼓励鲸鱼从昂贵的第1层中多样化，并在测试历史阻力之前仍将增加一倍的资产。 ETH的收费市场缓慢。

Layer-2 roll-ups continue to drain users, maintaining transaction fees under 30 gwei—a welcome relief for dApp devs but a revenue headwind for stakers seeking steady yield. While that, Ethereum’s daily addresses just set a four-month high and its upcoming MWEB privacy upgrade is fueling speculation of a new payments story.

第2层的卷起继续耗尽用户，维持30 GWEI的交易费用，这是Dapp Devs的可喜救济，但收入的收入是寻求稳定产量的Stakers。虽然这是以太坊的每日地址设定了一个四个月的高点，并且即将进行的MWEB隐私升级正在促进人们对新付款故事的猜测。

“Ethereum Price, Litecoin upside might be turned on its head if ETH staking returns fall below 2 %,” Amberdata analyst Elena Song cautions.

Amberdata分析师Elena Song警告说：“以太坊价格，如果ETH Staking的回报率低于2％，那么Litecoin上涨可能会扭转。”

Hard Numbers Illustrate Why Traders Favor Skinnier Plays

硬数字说明了为什么交易者偏爱更苗条的戏剧

硬数字说明了为什么交易者偏爱更苗条的戏剧

The latest CoinMarketCap snapshot puts Ethereum at $214.95 billion in capitalization with $12.42 billion in 24-hour turnover—figures that seem big but unaffected by recent protocol improvements. Litecoin is at $6.37 billion and a volume of $422.89 million, a much lower base that multiplies each additional buy.

最新的CoinMarketCap快照使以太坊的资本化为2149.5亿美元，并以124.2亿美元的24小时营业额为124.2亿美元，这似乎很大，但不受最近的协议改进的影响。莱特币的价格为63.7亿美元，数量为4.2289亿美元，这是一个低得多的基础，每增加一倍。

If the Ethereum Price, Litecoin pair enters spring squeeze, the probabilistic profit on LTC simply outweighs ETH’s.

如果以太坊的价格，Litecoin对进入Spring Squeeze，那么LTC的概率利润就超过了ETH。

Historically, May has witnessed Litecoin’s second-highest six-year average monthly gain of 18 %. Ethereum, however, experiences a muted 6 % median increase during the same timeframe. Quant desks believe seasonality and an upcoming Fed pause make LTC poised to blast towards $110 while ETH limps below $2,100.

从历史上看，梅一直见证了莱特币第二高的六年平均每月收益18％。但是，以太坊在同一时间范围内经历了中位数增加6％。 Quant Desks相信季节性和即将到来的暂停暂停，使LTC有望在110美元上爆炸，而ETH LIMP则低于2,100美元。

Remitrix: The Payments Dark Horse Trumping Ethereum Price, Litecoin Hopes

remitrix：付款黑马胜过以太坊的价格，莱特币希望

remitrix：付款黑马胜过以太坊的价格，莱特币希望

Ethereum Price and Litecoin trading puts the inheritance argument into context, and yet portfolio managers use Remittix these days for asymmetric alpha. RTX trades at about $0.0757, yet more than 529 million tokens already have addresses spoken for, soaking up $14.5 million in initial liquidity.

以太坊价格和莱特币交易将继承论点置于上下文中，但如今，投资组合经理使用Remittix进行不对称的Alpha。 RTX的交易价格约为0.0757美元，但已有超过5.29亿个代币的交易已经讲话，最初的流动性吸收了1450万美元。

Its carrot is genuine: exchange BTC, ETH, or Litecoin into fiat currency locally within minutes, and burn a slice of RTX with every trade. That very direct correlation between volume and scarcity is what Litecoin used to have before halving and what ETH’s EIP-1559 attempted to achieve—but Remittix applies it to real remittances.

它的胡萝卜是真实的：交换BTC，ETH或Litecoin在几分钟内本地将菲亚特货币交换为法定货币，并在每次交易中燃烧一片RTX。 Litecoin在减半之前曾经与ETH的EIP-1559试图实现的目标相关性，这是数量和稀缺性之间的直接相关性，但是Remittix将其应用于真实的汇款。

Above all, owners get a share of conversion fees—actual revenue, not inflationary staking rewards. Gaining licensing initiatives for an EU e-money license and U.S. MSB status would provide 50 new channels, doubling daily burns.

最重要的是，所有者获得了转换费的一部分 - 实际收入，而不是通货膨胀的积分奖励。获得欧盟电子货币许可证和US MSB身份的许可计划将提供50个新渠道，每天燃烧增加一倍。

If volumes only hit one-tenth of PayPal’s international volume, token models project RTX going above $1—returning investors a 1,200 % profit even if Ethereum Price, Litecoin charts merely double.

如果数量仅达到Paypal国际销量的十分之一，那么令牌模型项目RTX超过1美元，即使以太坊价格，Litecoin图表也只有两倍。

May Strategy: Blend Legacy Strength With Payments Momentum

五月策略：将遗产力量与付款势头融合

五月策略：将遗产力量与付款势头融合

A practical mix might allocate 45 % to Ethereum for blue-chip stability, 30 % to Litecoin for medium-beta halving exposure, and 25 % to Remittix for outsized performance potential. The goal is simple: have Ethereum Price, Litecoin valuations offer the anchor downside while RTX provides the lottery ticket.

实用的组合可能分配给以太坊的蓝芯片稳定性45％，30％的莱特币用于中腹部减半，而25％的人则为降低性能潜力。目标很简单：以太坊价格，Litecoin的估值提供了锚点，而RTX提供了彩票。

If ETH holds up below $2,400 and LTC makes a push to $130, the basket still records a decent profit; if RTX follows through on its licensing plan, portfolio returns might exceed a naked ETH hold by 4–5×.

如果ETH的价格低于$ 2,400，LTC的推向$ 130，那么篮子仍然记录了不错的利润；如果RTX遵循其许可计划，则投资组合退货可能超过4-5×。

May’s agenda is packed—ETH Dencun roll-up fee data, Litecoin’s MimbleWimble extension data, and the first Remittix Solana Pay bridge drop. The data drops will dictate rebalancing.

May的议程已经包装了 - Eth Dencun汇总费数据，Litecoin的Mimblewimble扩展数据以及第一个Remittix Solana Pay Bridge Drop。数据下降将决定重新平衡。

In the meantime, the market’s message is clear: Ethereum Price, Litecoin will not vanish, but nimble payment tokens such as RTX will out

同时，市场的信息很明确：以太坊价格，莱特币不会消失，但是诸如RTX之类的敏捷付款代币会出来