比特幣（BTC）交易者在等待美國經濟政策的信號隨著數據迫使美聯儲陷入困境。

消息人士稱，在失業和復興通貨膨脹率上升，經濟衰退很可能。比特幣和風險資產最終應從經濟衰退衝擊中獲得。

Key points:

要點：

Bitcoin traders are waiting for signals of US economic policy loosening as data forces the Federal Reserve into a corner.

比特幣交易者正在等待美國經濟政策的信號，因為數據將美聯儲陷入了角落。

A recession is more likely than not, sources say, amid rising unemployment and resurgent inflation.

消息人士稱，由於失業和復興通貨膨脹率的增加，經濟衰退很可能。

Bitcoin and risk assets should ultimately gain from a recession shock.

比特幣和風險資產最終應從經濟衰退衝擊中獲得。

Bitcoin (BTC) stands to gain as a US recession becomes the “base case scenario.”

比特幣（BTC）隨著美國衰退成為“基本案例場景”而獲得的。

Fresh analysis from sources including trading resource The Kobeissi Letter makes grim predictions for the US economy and Federal Reserve.

來自包括交易資源的來源的新分析Kobeissi信件對美國經濟和美聯儲進行了嚴峻的預測。

Fed’s ‘worst nightmare’ gets real

美聯儲的“最糟糕的噩夢”變得真實

US economic health is due to take a hit on the back of trade tariffs and the resurgent inflation, which may accompany them.

美國的經濟健康將遭受貿易關稅和復興通貨膨脹的影響，這可能伴隨它們。

The latest macroeconomic data, which includes Q1 GDP and the Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge, puts officials in a tight spot, Kobeissi says.

Kobeissi說，最新的宏觀經濟數據包括Q1 GDP和美聯儲的“首選”通貨膨脹量表，使官員處於狹窄狀態。

GDP came in markedly below expectations, turning negative against a 0.3% gain in the forecast.

GDP明顯低於預期，而預測的增長率為0.3％。

“Effectively, the Fed must pick between containing either inflation or unemployment,” it summarized, calling the situation the Fed’s “worst nightmare.”

它總結說：“有效地，美聯儲必須在包含通貨膨脹或失業率之間進行選擇。”

A key issue is the extent and timing of any interest rate cuts — something that crypto and risk-asset traders are keenly eyeing thanks to the positive knock-on effect for markets.

一個關鍵問題是任何降低利率的程度和時機 - 由於市場對市場的積極敲門效應，加密貨幣和風險資產交易者敏銳地關注這一點。

“Not reducing interest rates will further weaken US GDP and likely increase unemployment. However, if interest rates are cut immediately, we would expect to see another rebound in inflation.”

“不降低利率會進一步削弱美國國內生產總值並可能增加失業率。但是，如果立即降低利率，我們希望在通貨膨脹中再次反彈。”

Thus in a “lose-lose” situation, the Fed faces the threat of both stagflation — rising inflation with rising unemployment — and a full-on recession.

因此，在“失敗”的情況下，美聯儲面臨著停滯的威脅 - 通貨膨脹率上升，失業率上升 - 以及全面的衰退。

“A recession in the US has become our base case scenario,” Kobeissi added, linking to rising odds on prediction service Kalshi.

Kobeissi補充說：“美國的經濟衰退已成為我們的基本案例情況。”

Bitcoin analyst sees recession silver lining

比特幣分析師看到經濟衰退的銀線

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool underscores market expectations for Fed policy, which has remained conservative through 2025 despite the insistence of US President Donald Trump that rates head lower.

CME Group的FedWatch工具的最新數據強調了美聯儲政策的市場期望，儘管美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）堅持認為，該政策一直是保守的，但降低了評分。

Related: Bitcoin 'hot supply' nears $40B as new investors flood in at $95K

相關：隨著新投資者洪水湧入95,000美元，比特幣“熱供應”接近$ 40B

The June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is currently the event that should spark the next 0.25% cut, consensus suggests. The May meeting, however, now has just 3% odds of such an outcome.

共識表明，聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）的6月會議目前是將下一個0.25％削減的事件。但是，五月會議現在只有3％的賠率。

Meanwhile, crypto market participants are weighing the possible Fed course as conditions become increasingly hard to navigate.

同時，隨著條件變得越來越難以導航，加密市場參與者正在權衡可能的美聯儲課程。

“Yesterday, the market was pricing 57% probability of 25bps cut for June 18th FOMC. Today it's 63%,” popular trader Skew commented on the FedWatch data.

“昨天，市場定價為6月18日FOMC的25bps削減的可能性。今天是63％，”受歡迎的商人對FedWatch數據發表了評論。

Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe predicted that recession alone would cause the Fed to rethink its stance.

加密交易員，分析師和企業家MichaëlVande Poppe預測，僅衰退就會導緻美聯儲重新考慮其立場。

“The rumours for a potential recession is increasing, which should strengthen the thesis for the FED to loosen up the policy,” he wrote in part of an X reaction to Q1 GDP data.

他在X對Q1 GDP數據的一部分反應中寫道：“潛在衰退的謠言正在增加，這應該加強美聯儲放鬆政策的論文。”