为什么尽管现货 ETF 流入激增，比特币 (BTC) 价格却没有上涨？

尽管大量资金流入现货比特币 [BTC] 交易所交易基金 (ETF)，但比特币价格的预期相应上涨尚未实现

Despite substantial capital flowing into spot Bitcoin [BTC] Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), its price has yet to experience a corresponding surge, leaving both investors and analysts puzzled.

尽管大量资金流入现货比特币[BTC]交易所交易基金（ETF），但其价格尚未出现相应的飙升，这让投资者和分析师都感到困惑。

According to reports, these financial products have witnessed an unprecedented level of interest and capital inflow, highlighting a burgeoning enthusiasm within the cryptocurrency space.

据报道，这些金融产品的兴趣和资本流入达到了前所未有的水平，凸显了加密货币领域蓬勃发展的热情。

Over the past few weeks, the ETFs have experienced a record seven consecutive weeks of net inflows, marking the longest streak since their inception, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading the pack.

过去几周，ETF 连续七周出现创纪录的净流入，这是自成立以来最长的连续净流入，其中贝莱德的 IBIT 领先。

On 7th June alone, the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs tracked a collective net inflow of over $200 million, spearheaded by a $350 million influx into IBIT.

仅 6 月 7 日，11 只现货比特币 ETF 的净流入总额就超过 2 亿美元，其中以 3.5 亿美元流入 IBIT 为首。

This culminated in a staggering $15.56 billion net inflow since January.

自 1 月份以来，净流入达到惊人的 155.6 亿美元。

Despite the substantial surge in spot ETFs over the past week, Bitcoin has witnessed only a modest increase of 4.3% during the same timeframe.

尽管过去一周现货 ETF 大幅上涨，但比特币在同一时间段内仅小幅上涨 4.3%。

Over the last 24 hours, the cryptocurrency has struggled to gain further momentum, with its price hovering just above $71,000.

在过去 24 小时内，该加密货币一直难以获得进一步的动力，其价格徘徊在 71,000 美元上方。

Impact of ETFs on Bitcoin price

ETF对比特币价格的影响

The current stagnation in Bitcoin’s price, despite substantial ETF inflows, raises questions about the actual impact of these financial instruments on the cryptocurrency’s market value.

尽管 ETF 大量流入，但目前比特币价格停滞不前，引发了人们对这些金融工具对加密货币市场价值的实际影响的质疑。

According to experts, multiple factors are at play that dilute the ETFs’ influence on Bitcoin’s price.

专家表示，多种因素的作用削弱了 ETF 对比特币价格的影响。

In a response to an X user who asked why the spot ETFs are not moving BTC’s price, Inks stated:

在回答 X 用户询问为什么现货 ETF 没有改变 BTC 价格时，Inks 表示：

“You do realize the market is made up of spot, futures, ETFs, and options, right? Price at any point in time is a product of all of these, not just one of them.”

“你确实意识到市场是由现货、期货、ETF 和期权组成的，对吗？任何时间点的价格都是所有这些因素的产物，而不仅仅是其中之一。”

Further discussions among financial experts, including a notable exchange between investor Frank Makrides and Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, shed light on the nuanced interplay of market forces.

金融专家之间的进一步讨论，包括投资者 Frank Makrides 和彭博 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 之间的著名交流，揭示了市场力量之间微妙的相互作用。

According to Balchunas, while ETFs are buying aggressively, there is equivalent selling from other market participants, keeping the price at a balance.

Balchunas 表示，虽然 ETF 正在大举买入，但其他市场参与者也有相应的抛售，从而使价格保持平衡。

This phenomenon is often described as ‘buy the rumor, sell the news,’ where market anticipation of an event (like the approval of ETFs) drives up prices temporarily, only to stabilize or drop once the event materializes.

这种现象通常被描述为“买谣言，卖新闻”，即市场对事件的预期（例如 ETF 的批准）暂时推高价格，只有在事件发生后才会稳定或下跌。

Another perspective, highlighted by Jimie, an analyst, is that while ETFs now hold approximately 5% of the total circulating Bitcoin supply, the remaining 95% is controlled by a diverse group of investors, including whales, whose trading activities significantly sway the market.

分析师 Jimie 强调的另一个观点是，虽然 ETF 目前持有比特币流通总量的约 5%，但其余 95% 则由包括鲸鱼在内的多元化投资者群体控制，他们的交易活动极大地影响了市场。

This perspective was echoed by community reactions under Makrides’s X post, where users like Patrick Hubbard noted,

这一观点得到了 Makrides 的 X 帖子下社区反应的呼应，帕特里克·哈伯德 (Patrick Hubbard) 等用户指出，

“If ETFs are buying, it’s because someone is selling.”

“如果 ETF 正在买入，那是因为有人在卖出。”

Analyzing Bitcoin’s price stability

分析比特币的价格稳定性

Examining Bitcoin’s fundamentals sheds light on why its price has not yet mirrored the rising inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to Glassnode, Bitcoin’s circulating supply has been on an uptrend since the beginning of the year.

检查比特币的基本面可以揭示为什么其价格尚未反映出现货比特币 ETF 资金流入的增加。据Glassnode称，自今年年初以来，比特币的流通供应量一直呈上升趋势。

Typically, an increase in circulating supply suggests more BTC are available for sale, which could lead to a price drop if demand decreases.

通常情况下，流通供应量的增加表明有更多的比特币可供出售，如果需求减少，这可能会导致价格下跌。

However, the ongoing demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs seems to be absorbing sufficient supply to maintain current price levels, although not enough to significantly drive prices higher.

然而，现货比特币 ETF 的持续需求似乎正在吸收足够的供应以维持当前的价格水平，尽管不足以大幅推高价格。

Moreover, the dynamics of open interest also support the current pricing trends of Bitcoin.

此外，未平仓合约的动态也支持了比特币当前的定价趋势。

Data from Coinglass indicates that there has been no significant movement in Bitcoin’s open interest; it recorded only a minor increase of 0.8% over the past 24 hours, while options volume has declined by nearly 40%.

Coinglass 的数据表明，比特币的未平仓合约没有显着变化；过去 24 小时内仅小幅上涨 0.8%，而期权交易量则下降了近 40%。

This slight uptick in open interest, coupled with a decline in options volume, suggests a cautious market sentiment.

未平仓合约的小幅上升，加上期权数量的下降，表明市场情绪谨慎。

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25

阅读比特币 [BTC] 2024-25 价格预测