比特币（BTC）价格预测：BTC会重新测试100,000美元的区域吗？

在过去的24小时内，比特币的价格动作使它从本周开始的104,000美元区域慢慢回溯。

Bitcoin’s price action in the past 24 hours has seen it slowly retracing from the $104,000 zone it started the week at. This range has become particularly significant as Bitcoin continues to flirt with levels last seen during its recent push toward new all-time highs.

在过去的24小时内，比特币的价格动作使它从本周开始的104,000美元区域慢慢回溯。随着比特币在最近推向新历史高点的最新水平上，比特币继续调情。

Bitcoin’s price movements over the past two days have tightened, and the candlestick behavior on the weekly chart has led to a doji formation on the weekly candlestick timeframe, an indicator of indecision.

在过去两天中，比特币的价格变动已经收紧了，每周图表上的烛台行为导致每周烛台时间范围内的Doji组成，这是犹豫不决的指标。

Interestingly, a technical analysis from crypto analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino has highlighted critical levels to watch that will determine whether the Bitcoin price is turning bearish or still bullish.

有趣的是，加密分析师Tony“ The Bull” Severino的技术分析强调了要注意的关键水平，这将确定比特币价格是否变成看跌或仍然看涨。

Mixed Signals: Why The Current Resistance Zone Is Critical

混合信号：为什么当前电阻区域至关重要

Crypto analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino shared a chart and in-depth breakdown on the social media platform X, highlighting horizontal support and resistance levels as the most important technical indicators in his view.

加密分析师Tony“ The Bull” Severino在社交媒体平台X上分享了图表和深入的细分，强调了水平支持和阻力水平，这是他认为最重要的技术指标。

As shown on his Bitcoin weekly chart, the leading cryptocurrency is now pressing against a well-defined resistance zone just below its all-time high, which is highlighted in red. The close proximity of this level to the all-time high could make it act like a ceiling, rendering it a crucial area to watch for either a breakout or a reversal.

如他的比特币每周图表所示，领先的加密货币现在正朝着其历史最高水平以下的明确的电阻区域施压，该区域以红色突出显示。这个水平与历史最高的高度接近可能会使它像天花板一样，使其成为关注突破或逆转的关键领域。

Tony elaborates on three possible interpretations for the current market structure around the $108,000 resistance level. The bullish case relies on Bitcoin consolidating below resistance, a pattern that is usually followed by continuation upwards. The neutral case is that Bitcoin could be forming a broad trading range, in which case it makes sense to short the market at resistance while buying near support. Finally, on the bearish side, the formation of a doji candlestick at this key level might be signaling a loss of momentum and an early indication of a price reversal.

托尼对当前市场结构的三种可能解释详细说明了108,000美元的电阻水平。看涨案例依赖于比特币在电阻下巩固，这种模式通常是继续向上延续的。中立的案例是比特币可能形成一个广泛的交易范围，在这种情况下，在购买附近的支持时，在电阻下短暂的市场是有意义的。最后，在看跌方面，在此关键水平上的Doji烛台的形成可能表明势头损失和价格逆转的早期迹象。

His trading strategy reflects this uncertainty. He has entered short positions within the red resistance zone, placing his stop loss just above the all-time high. At the same time, he has set a stop buy order in the green breakout zone above the all-time high, prepared to switch long should the Bitcoin price break through the resistance convincingly.

他的交易策略反映了这种不确定性。他在红色阻力区域内进入了短职位，将停止损失置于历史最高水平之上。同时，他已经在历史最高高的绿色分离区域设定了停止购买订单，准备长时间切换比特币的价格突破性，因为它令人信服地穿越阻力。

Conditions For A Bullish Breakout Are Not Yet Fulfilled

尚未满足看涨突破的条件

Although Tony noted that the broader investment market, including altcoins and the stock market, looks strong, he cautioned that this does not guarantee a bullish breakout for Bitcoin.

尽管托尼指出，包括Altcoins和股票市场在内的更广泛的投资市场看上去很强劲，但他警告说，这不能保证比特币的看涨突破。

For confirmation, a bullish breakout must be preceded by aligning various technical indicators. These include a breakout with substantial trading volume, an RSI reading above 70 on the weekly chart, and a weekly close above the upper Bollinger Band.

为了确认，必须先于对齐各种技术指标。其中包括一场大量交易量的突破，每周图表上的RSI读数超过70，以及在上布林乐队上方的每周接近。

At the moment, however, the Bitcoin CME Futures chart has failed to move past 70 on the daily RSI twice, and trading volume is in decline. According to CoinMarketCap, the trading volume of Bitcoin is $44.33 billion in the past 24 hours, a 11.40% reduction from the previous 24 hours. These are early warning signs that a breakout attempt may lack the strength needed for sustainability.

然而，目前，比特币CME期货图表未能在每日RSI上两次移动70，而且交易量正在下降。根据CoinMarketCap的数据，在过去的24小时内，比特币的交易量为443.3亿美元，比前24小时减少了11.40％。这些是预警信号，即突破尝试可能缺乏可持续性所需的力量。

Nonetheless, the conditions are still very mixed and starting to lean more bullish than bearish.

尽管如此，这些条件仍然非常混杂，开始比看跌更倾向于看涨。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $102,352, down by 1.31% in the past 24 hours.

在写作时，比特币的交易价格为102,352美元，在过去24小时内下降了1.31％。