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尽管价格下跌和最近的市场波动,但一位加密分析师预测,比特币(BTC)仍有另一个抛物线反弹的空间。
Despite recent price pullbacks and market volatility, one crypto analyst predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) may still have room for another parabolic rally.
尽管最近的价格下跌和市场波动率,但一位加密分析师预测,比特币(BTC)可能仍然有其他抛物线集会的空间。
The analyst, who uses the handle Crypto Con on X (formerly Twitter), recently shared a technical analysis. It suggests that the market has not yet reached its top, even as parabola signals fail to propel a surge.
在X(以前为Twitter)上使用句柄加密货币的分析师最近分享了一项技术分析。这表明市场尚未达到顶峰,即使抛物线信号无法推动激增。
Crypto Con's analysis focused on a technical indicator model developed by another market expert, known as DA_Prof. This model, which is being used to identify potential BTC cycle tops, combines 13 on-chain and market technical indicators.
Crypto Con的分析重点是由另一个市场专家开发的技术指标模型,即DA_PROF。该模型用于识别潜在的BTC周期顶部,结合了13个链和市场技术指标。
The analysis was shared in a recent X post.
该分析在最近的X帖子中分享。
"Still no sign of a Bitcoin cycle top yet, according to this analysis. But we're getting closer. Crypto cycles are becoming more time-variant with each cycle, and the parabolas are appearing earlier in this cycle. But no sign yet of Prof's top cycle indicators converging."
“根据这项分析,仍然没有比特币周期顶部的迹象。但是我们越来越近。加密周期在每个循环中都变得越来越多,并且抛物线在此周期中较早出现。但是,没有迹象表明教授的顶级周期指标会收敛。”
The timeframes used in the chart are 3W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 9Y, 10Y, 12Y, and 15Y. The heatmap on the bottom shows the 13 indicators used in Prof's model. They are:
图表中使用的时间范围为3W,1M,3M,6M,1Y,2Y,3Y,5Y,7Y,9Y,9Y,10Y,12Y和15Y。底部的热图显示了教授模型中使用的13个指标。他们是:
BTC Realized Price
BTC实现了价格
BTC 6EMA
BTC 6EMA
BTC 12EMA
BTC 12ema
BTC 24EMA
BTC 24EMA
BTC 50SMA
BTC 50SMA
BTC 100SMA
BTC 100SMA
BTC 200SMA
BTC 200SMA
BTC RSI
BTC RSI
BTC MACD
BTC MACD
BTC MFI
BTC MFI
Crypto Fear & Greed Index
加密恐惧和贪婪指数
Volume
体积
Bitcoin Revenue Volume
比特币收入量
The analysis highlighted that Prof’s indicator setup has previously identified market peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
分析强调,教授的指标设置先前已经确定了2013年,2017年和2021年的市场峰值。
According to the analysis, any potential cycle peak in 2025 will likely emerge only when Bitcoin enters a critical zone. This will be identified through the convergence of these 13 advanced indicators, which are used in an advanced multifactor approach to predict market turning points.
根据分析,只有比特币进入关键区域时,2025年的任何潜在周期峰都可能出现。这将通过这13个高级指标的融合来确定,这些指标用于预测市场转折点。
Historically, when these indicators converged in the red-hot region, which is shown in the cluster of indicators in the lower heatmap section of the chart, the Bitcoin price experienced a dramatic peak, followed by a significant crash.
从历史上看,当这些指标在红热区域中汇聚(在图表的下热图部分的指标群中显示)时,比特币价格经历了巨大的峰值,随后发生了重大崩溃。
However, in the current cycle, none of Prof’s metrics have entered that zone. Instead, the readings across the lower bands of the model remain comparatively muted, which may suggest that market euphoria has not yet reached past-cycle extremes.
但是,在当前周期中,教授的指标都没有进入该区域。取而代之的是,模型的较低频段之间的读数仍然相对静止,这可能表明市场欣快感尚未达到过去的循环极端。
Crypto Con's analysis also highlighted another key aspect: Parabola signals.
Crypto Con的分析还强调了另一个关键方面:抛物线信号。
Signals from the parabola indicator, another technical tool used to identify trends, have flashed three times in this cycle. These signals are historically linked to the early stages of Bitcoin’s explosive price rallies, which were seen during the previous bull markets.
在此周期中,来自抛物线指示器的信号是一种用于识别趋势的技术工具。这些信号在历史上与比特币爆炸价格集会的早期阶段有关,这些爆炸性集会是在先前的牛市中看到的。
But despite these alerts, Bitcoin has failed to enter a true parabolic breakout phase so far in 2025. The analyst noted that the May 2025 parabola signal is especially interesting, as it coincides with Bitcoin crossing the indicator’s Parabolic Boundary.
但是,尽管有这些警报,但比特币在2025年到目前为止未能进入真正的抛物线突破阶段。分析师指出,2025年5月的抛物线信号特别有趣,因为它与比特币越过指示器的抛物面边界相吻合。
This breach, paired with the absence of Prof’s indicator stack, creates an unusual setup. Pointing out this anomaly, Crypto Con asked: "No cycle top + parabola signal = ?"
这种漏洞与缺少教授的指示堆栈相结合,创造了一个不寻常的设置。 Crypto Con指出了这一异常,问:“没有循环顶部 +抛物线信号=?”
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