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儘管價格下跌和最近的市場波動,但一位加密分析師預測,比特幣(BTC)仍有另一個拋物線反彈的空間。
Despite recent price pullbacks and market volatility, one crypto analyst predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) may still have room for another parabolic rally.
儘管最近的價格下跌和市場波動率,但一位加密分析師預測,比特幣(BTC)可能仍然有其他拋物線集會的空間。
The analyst, who uses the handle Crypto Con on X (formerly Twitter), recently shared a technical analysis. It suggests that the market has not yet reached its top, even as parabola signals fail to propel a surge.
在X(以前為Twitter)上使用句柄加密貨幣的分析師最近分享了一項技術分析。這表明市場尚未達到頂峰,即使拋物線信號無法推動激增。
Crypto Con's analysis focused on a technical indicator model developed by another market expert, known as DA_Prof. This model, which is being used to identify potential BTC cycle tops, combines 13 on-chain and market technical indicators.
Crypto Con的分析重點是由另一個市場專家開發的技術指標模型,即DA_PROF。該模型用於識別潛在的BTC週期頂部,結合了13個鍊和市場技術指標。
The analysis was shared in a recent X post.
該分析在最近的X帖子中分享。
"Still no sign of a Bitcoin cycle top yet, according to this analysis. But we're getting closer. Crypto cycles are becoming more time-variant with each cycle, and the parabolas are appearing earlier in this cycle. But no sign yet of Prof's top cycle indicators converging."
“根據這項分析,仍然沒有比特幣週期頂部的跡象。但是我們越來越近。加密週期在每個循環中都變得越來越多,並且拋物線在此週期中較早出現。但是,沒有跡象表明教授的頂級週期指標會收斂。”
The timeframes used in the chart are 3W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 9Y, 10Y, 12Y, and 15Y. The heatmap on the bottom shows the 13 indicators used in Prof's model. They are:
圖表中使用的時間範圍為3W,1M,3M,6M,1Y,2Y,3Y,5Y,7Y,9Y,9Y,10Y,12Y和15Y。底部的熱圖顯示了教授模型中使用的13個指標。他們是:
BTC Realized Price
BTC實現了價格
BTC 6EMA
BTC 6EMA
BTC 12EMA
BTC 12ema
BTC 24EMA
BTC 24EMA
BTC 50SMA
BTC 50SMA
BTC 100SMA
BTC 100SMA
BTC 200SMA
BTC 200SMA
BTC RSI
BTC RSI
BTC MACD
BTC MACD
BTC MFI
BTC MFI
Crypto Fear & Greed Index
加密恐懼和貪婪指數
Volume
體積
Bitcoin Revenue Volume
比特幣收入量
The analysis highlighted that Prof’s indicator setup has previously identified market peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
分析強調,教授的指標設置先前已經確定了2013年,2017年和2021年的市場峰值。
According to the analysis, any potential cycle peak in 2025 will likely emerge only when Bitcoin enters a critical zone. This will be identified through the convergence of these 13 advanced indicators, which are used in an advanced multifactor approach to predict market turning points.
根據分析,只有比特幣進入關鍵區域時,2025年的任何潛在周期峰都可能出現。這將通過這13個高級指標的融合來確定,這些指標用於預測市場轉折點。
Historically, when these indicators converged in the red-hot region, which is shown in the cluster of indicators in the lower heatmap section of the chart, the Bitcoin price experienced a dramatic peak, followed by a significant crash.
從歷史上看,當這些指標在紅熱區域中匯聚(在圖表的下熱圖部分的指標群中顯示)時,比特幣價格經歷了巨大的峰值,隨後發生了重大崩潰。
However, in the current cycle, none of Prof’s metrics have entered that zone. Instead, the readings across the lower bands of the model remain comparatively muted, which may suggest that market euphoria has not yet reached past-cycle extremes.
但是,在當前週期中,教授的指標都沒有進入該區域。取而代之的是,模型的較低頻段之間的讀數仍然相對靜止,這可能表明市場欣快感尚未達到過去的循環極端。
Crypto Con's analysis also highlighted another key aspect: Parabola signals.
Crypto Con的分析還強調了另一個關鍵方面:拋物線信號。
Signals from the parabola indicator, another technical tool used to identify trends, have flashed three times in this cycle. These signals are historically linked to the early stages of Bitcoin’s explosive price rallies, which were seen during the previous bull markets.
在此週期中,來自拋物線指示器的信號是一種用於識別趨勢的技術工具。這些信號在歷史上與比特幣爆炸價格集會的早期階段有關,這些爆炸性集會是在先前的牛市中看到的。
But despite these alerts, Bitcoin has failed to enter a true parabolic breakout phase so far in 2025. The analyst noted that the May 2025 parabola signal is especially interesting, as it coincides with Bitcoin crossing the indicator’s Parabolic Boundary.
但是,儘管有這些警報,但比特幣在2025年到目前為止未能進入真正的拋物線突破階段。分析師指出,2025年5月的拋物線信號特別有趣,因為它與比特幣越過指示器的拋物面邊界相吻合。
This breach, paired with the absence of Prof’s indicator stack, creates an unusual setup. Pointing out this anomaly, Crypto Con asked: "No cycle top + parabola signal = ?"
這種漏洞與缺少教授的指示堆棧相結合,創造了一個不尋常的設置。 Crypto Con指出了這一異常,問:“沒有循環頂部 +拋物線信號=?”
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