随着市场下降，比特币（BTC）在早期激增后坠毁

比特币（BTC）周三早些时候着火，直到市场下降时崩溃

Bitcoin (BTC 0.10%) was on fire early in the day on Wednesday, only to crash as the market dropped. Investors were reminded that Bitcoin doesn't run the world, the bond market does, and that was apparent today.

比特币（BTC 0.10％）在星期三早些时候着火，直到市场下降时崩溃。提醒投资者，比特币没有跨越世界，债券市场确实如此，这很明显。

The big news was a weak 20-year Treasury auction from the U.S. Treasury that resulted in a big spike in bond yields. And higher yields typically mean investors are fleeing from high-risk assets to safer assets. Crypto advocates may think Bitcoin is a “safe” asset, but history tells us that Bitcoin trades correlated with growth stocks and isn't a safe haven if there's a recession or the market drops.

最重要的消息是美国财政部的20年财政部拍卖会导致债券收益率激增。较高的收益率通常意味着投资者从高风险的资产逃到更安全的资产。加密提倡者可能认为比特币是“安全”的资产，但历史告诉我们，比特币交易与增长股票相关，如果有经济衰退或市场下降，则不是避风港。

Bitcoin's jump to $109,722 happened just before 1 p.m. ET, just before the 20-year auction took place. The value dropped to $106,307 within minutes and is now down to $107,191 as I'm writing. Ethereum (ETH 0.37%) took a similar path, falling 5% to $2,480 in a few minutes and Dogecoin (DOGE 1.07%) dropped 5.6% peak to trough and is now at $0.226 per token.

比特币的跃升至109,722美元，就在美国东部时间下午1点之前，就在20年拍卖之前。该价值在几分钟内下降至106,307美元，现在我写作的是107,191美元。以太坊（ETH 0.37％）采取了类似的道路，几分钟内下跌了5％至2,480美元，而Dogecoin（Doge 1.07％）下跌了5.6％的峰值，现在为0.226美元，每个令牌为0.226美元。

Image source: Getty Images.

图像来源：盖蒂图像。

The crypto reality

加密现实

As much as crypto advocates would like to think cryptocurrencies are a hedge against the market, the reality is crypto is very correlated with growth stocks.

加密倡导者想认为加密货币是针对市场的对冲，现实是加密货币与增长库存非常相关。

You can see that in the movement of Bitcoin and the Vanguard Growth Index ETF (IVW) over the past three years.

您会看到，在过去三年中，比特币和先锋增长指数ETF（IVW）的运动。

Bitcoin Price data by YCharts

YCHARTS的比特币价格数据

And the same correlation holds when the market fell in late 2021 into 2022.

当市场在2021年末到2022年市场时，相同的相关性也存在。

Bitcoin Price data by YCharts

YCHARTS的比特币价格数据

As bond values fall (because yields are rising), it's likely investors pull back from growth stocks and risky assets like cryptocurrencies. We're seeing that in a small move today, but don't be surprised if it gets worse.

随着债券价值的下降（因为收益率上升），投资者很可能会从增长股票和加密货币等风险资产中退缩。我们看到今天的举动很小，但是如果情况变得更糟，请不要感到惊讶。

Why are bonds telling a negative story?

债券为什么讲一个负面故事？

The concern for investors is that bond markets are sending a warning. When yields jump like this it's an indication investors are seeing rising risk in Treasuries. This could be because they're not seeing the dollar as the safe haven it once was or there's higher risk of rising rates in the future because of inflation.

投资者关注的是债券市场正在发出警告。当产量跳高时，这表明投资者看到国库的风险增加。这可能是因为他们没有将美元视为曾经的避风港，或者由于通货膨胀，将来利率上升的风险更高。

Those higher rates would be because the Federal Reserve has to fight inflation caused by tariffs. And with companies already starting to make decisions about holiday purchases, it's likely that higher prices will start flowing to consumers relatively soon. When that shows up in the data, it's likely too late, and the market is reacting before conditions get bad.

这些较高的利率是因为美联储必须与关税造成的通货膨胀作斗争。而且，随着公司已经开始对假期购买做出决定，很快，更高的价格将开始流向消费者。当数据出现在数据中时，可能为时已晚，并且在情况恶劣之前，市场正在反应。

Higher prices are what led to the market's crash in 2022 as consumers pulled back, companies cut spending, and the economy slowed. But a recession was avoided in part because labor markets were still tight and stimulus money was still flowing. That may not be the case this time around.

随着消费者退缩，削减支出和经济放缓，较高的价格导致了2022年市场崩溃的原因。但是，避免衰退的部分原因是劳动力市场仍然很紧张，刺激性金钱仍在流动。这次可能不是这种情况。

Crypto's bubble is bursting

加密泡沫正在破裂

There have been a lot of tailwinds for the crypto industry from the election to rising markets, but this could be a new paradigm. If the U.S. goes into a tariff-induced recession and interest rates rise, rather than fall as you would expect in a recession, there will be massive fallout.

从选举到不断上升的市场，加密货币行业都有很多逆风，但这可能是一个新的范式。如果美国陷入关税引起的衰退和利率上升，而不是像您在经济衰退中所期望的那样下降，那将会有大规模的后果。

Holding cryptocurrencies may be the last thing investors want to do in that environment and that's why there's so much volatility in a down market. Expect that to continue if bond yields rise and stocks fall in 2025.

持有加密货币可能是投资者在那种环境中要做的最后一件事，这就是为什么在下跌市场中如此多波动性的原因。预计如果债券收益率上升，股票在2025年下跌，将继续下去。