币安效应减弱，交易所上市暴露为风险投资退出计划

“币安效应”曾经与新交易所代币上市带来的暴富联系在一起，但随着风险投资抛售加剧、市场热情减弱，“币安效应”已经减弱。在币安上上市的代币中，超过 80% 的代币在前六个月内经历了价值下跌，这表明这些上市代币正在成为风险投资公司的退出策略，而不是散户投资者的盈利机会。

Binance Effect Fades, Exposing Exchange Listings as VC Exit Strategies

币安效应消退，交易所上市成为风险投资退出策略

The once-lauded "Binance effect," where new token listings on the world's largest crypto exchange by trading volume propelled prices upward, has met its demise. This trend has shifted dramatically, with over 80% of tokens listed on Binance declining in value within six months of their debut, according to fintech company SwissBorg.

曾经备受赞誉的“币安效应”，即全球最大的加密货币交易所上市的新代币（按交易量计算）推动了价格上涨，但现在已经消亡。根据金融科技公司 SwissBorg 的数据，这种趋势已经发生了巨大转变，币安上上市的代币中有超过 80% 在首次亮相后的六个月内价值下跌。

This emerging pattern suggests that Binance listings are increasingly serving as exit strategies for venture capital (VC) firms rather than lucrative investment opportunities for retail investors.

这种新兴模式表明，币安上市越来越多地成为风险投资（VC）公司的退出策略，而不是散户投资者的利润丰厚的投资机会。

Downward Trend for Binance Listed Tokens

币安上市代币的下降趋势

A study by Flow, a crypto analysis platform, revealed that only 5 out of 31 recently listed tokens on Binance experienced price increases. These tokens were primarily meme coins or projects without significant VC backing. Conversely, tokens backed by prominent VC firms, such as Binance Labs' NFP, Pantera Capital-backed OMNI, and Coinbase-supported AEVO, underperformed significantly, with losses ranging from 52% to 68%.

加密货币分析平台 Flow 的一项研究显示，币安最近上市的 31 种代币中，只有 5 种出现了价格上涨。这些代币主要是模因币或没有大量风险投资支持的项目。相反，由著名风险投资公司支持的代币，例如 Binance Labs 的 NFP、Pantera Capital 支持的 OMNI 和 Coinbase 支持的 AEVO 等，表现明显不佳，损失幅度从 52% 到 68% 不等。

"If you held a portfolio where you invested an equal amount in each new Binance listing, you would be down over 18% in the past six months," Flow noted.

Flow 指出：“如果你持有的投资组合在每次新上市的币安上都投入了等额资金，那么过去六个月内你的股价将下跌超过 18%。”

High Valuation Trap for Binance Tokens

币安代币的高估值陷阱

Many new Binance listings debut at excessively high, fully diluted valuations (FDVs), often exceeding several billion dollars, without commensurate user base or community support. This practice has been identified by researchers Ren and Heinrich, who found that token prices spiked 73% in the first month after listing on Binance.

许多新的币安上市项目首次上市时的估值（FDV）过高，通常超过数十亿美元，而没有相应的用户基础或社区支持。研究人员 Ren 和 Heinrich 发现了这种做法，他们发现代币价格在币安上市后的第一个月飙升了 73%。

However, Binance's once-dominant liquidity is now being challenged by emerging blockchains such as Solana, Avalanche, Aptos, and Sui.

然而，币安曾经占据主导地位的流动性现在正受到 Solana、Avalanche、Aptos 和 Sui 等新兴区块链的挑战。

"Most of the new Binance listings are tokens backed by Tier-1 VC and launch at crazy valuations. The average FDV on Binance listing date is over $4.2B, with some even reaching a ridiculous FDV of over $11B," Flow stated.

“大多数新的币安上市都是由一级风险投资支持的代币，并以疯狂的估值推出。币安上市日期的平均 FDV 超过 $4.2B，有些甚至达到了荒谬的超过 $11B，”Flow 表示。

Is the Binance Effect a Scam Mechanism?

币安效应是一种骗局机制吗？

The current trend suggests that many tokens listed on Binance are providing "exit liquidity" for insiders, particularly VC firms. These firms leverage the initial hype and high liquidity associated with Binance listings to cash out their investments, often at the expense of retail investors who are attracted to the allure of a quick return.

目前的趋势表明，币安上上市的许多代币正在为内部人士，特别是风险投资公司提供“退出流动性”。这些公司利用与币安上市相关的最初炒作和高流动性来兑现其投资，而这往往以牺牲那些被快速回报的诱惑所吸引的散户投资者为代价。

This practice is turning the Binance chain into an increasingly volatile asset class, with the BNB token showing bearish signals across multiple technical indicators, including a death cross and a Head and Shoulders Pattern.

这种做法正在将币安链变成一种波动性越来越大的资产类别，BNB 代币在多个技术指标上显示出看跌信号，包括死亡交叉和头肩形态。

Shifting Landscape

变化的景观

Analysts at Flow believe that Binance is evolving into a platform primarily used for quick cash grabs rather than the launch of projects with long-term value.

Flow 的分析师认为，币安正在演变成一个主要用于快速获取现金的平台，而不是推出具有长期价值的项目。

"More often than not, tokens launching on Binance are not investment vehicles anymore – all their upside potential is already taken away. Instead, they represent exit liquidity for insiders [VC] who capitalize on retail lack of access to quality early investment opportunities," Flow explained.

“通常情况下，在币安上推出的代币不再是投资工具——它们所有的上行潜力都已经被剥夺了。相反，它们代表了内部人士 [VC] 的退出流动性，他们利用散户缺乏获得优质早期投资机会的机会，”流程解释道。

This shift in the Binance effect has significant implications for retail investors, who should approach new listings with caution, recognizing the changing market dynamics and the potential for VC-led sell-offs.

币安效应的这种转变对散户投资者具有重大影响，他们应该谨慎对待新上市的股票，认识到不断变化的市场动态以及风投主导的抛售的可能性。