誰將贏得 ETF 競賽；比特幣 vs 以太坊？

彭博社高級 ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 預測，即將推出的基於以太坊的交易所交易基金 (ETF) 將無法與

Senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, Eric Balchunas, predicts that the upcoming Ether-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will not be able to match the massive success of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to him, Bitcoin is like a “crypto hot sauce” that investors can easily understand. However, explaining Ether, with its complicated decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, is more difficult.

彭博社高級 ETF 分析師 Eric Balchunas 預測，即將推出的基於以太坊的交易所交易基金 (ETF) 將無法與美國現貨比特幣 ETF 的巨大成功相提並論。他認為，比特幣就像是投資者很容易理解的「加密辣醬」。然而，解釋以太坊及其複雜的去中心化金融（DeFi）生態系統則更加困難。

Balchunas sees Ether ETFs as a “sidekick” to Bitcoin ETFs, which have already set records with their initial inflows. This explosive revelation has opened a debate on ETH ETF’s overhyped status, and many are comparing it to the slow performance shown in Hong Kong.

Balchunas 將以太坊 ETF 視為比特幣 ETF 的“助手”，比特幣 ETF 的初始流入量已經創下了記錄。這起爆炸性的消息引發了關於 ETH ETF 過度炒作的爭論，許多人將其與香港表現緩慢的表現進行比較。

Bitcoin raised the bar; will Ethereum match the success? Let’s hear from the horse’s mouth!

比特幣提高了標準；以太坊會取得同樣的成功嗎？讓我們聽聽馬的嘴吧！

Who will win the ETF Race; Bitcoin vs ETH?

誰將贏得 ETF 競賽；比特幣 vs 以太坊？

Some experts are optimistic despite concerns that Ether ETFs might fall short of Bitcoin ETFs’ success. According to 21Shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder, Ether ETFs will not reach the extraordinary levels of the Bitcoin ETFs, but they will still be successful. She expects the Ether ETFs to perform well.

儘管擔心以太坊 ETF 可能達不到比特幣 ETF 的成功，但一些專家仍持樂觀態度。 21Shares 聯合創始人 Ophelia Snyder 表示，以太坊 ETF 不會達到比特幣 ETF 的非凡水平，但它們仍然會成功。她預計以太幣 ETF 將會表現良好。

However, she adds that the Bitcoin ETFs set an exceptionally high bar, and the Ether ETFs should be judged against average ETF launches, not against Bitcoin’s record-breaking performance.

然而，她補充說，比特幣 ETF 設定了非常高的標準，以太坊 ETF 應該根據 ETF 發行的平均水平來判斷，而不是根據比特幣破紀錄的表現來判斷。

Flipping the Coin

翻轉硬幣

While Bitcoin ETFs are expected to see a huge surge in inflows, reaching $50 billion by 2025, Ethereum ETFs might attract around $15 billion in their first 18 months, with $500 million in the first week, according to Bitwise’s Matt Hougan. Some analysts are doubtful because Ethereum lacks Bitcoin’s “digital gold” status.

Bitwise 的Matt Hougan 表示，預計比特幣ETF 的資金流入將大幅增加，到2025 年將達到500 億美元，而以太坊ETF 可能在前18 個月內吸引約150 億美元，第一周吸引5 億美元。一些分析師對此表示懷疑，因為以太坊缺乏比特幣的「數位黃金」地位。

Yet, Hougan believes that investors have a strong affinity for technology and are actively following companies like Nvidia and Meta. Therefore, to be successful, Ethereum will need to be positioned as a tech platform rather than just a cryptocurrency, and more innovative Ethereum-based products might be required to boost its appeal.

然而，Hougan 認為投資者對科技有很強的親和力，並積極關注 Nvidia 和 Meta 等公司。因此，為了取得成功，以太坊需要被定位為技術平台，而不僅僅是一種加密貨幣，並且可能需要更多基於以太坊的創新產品來提高其吸引力。

Launch Timeline and Regulatory Updates

啟動時間表和監管更新

In the meantime, the SEC is close to the approval process for the Ether ETFs, with Chair Gary Gensler noting that it is “going smoothly.” However, there is no clarity that the ETFs will launch before the November election.

與此同時，美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 即將完成以太 ETF 的審批流程，主席加里·根斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 指出，該流程「進展順利」。然而，目前尚不清楚 ETF 是否會在 11 月大選前推出。

Analysts speculate that the SEC might approve the Ether ETFs as early as the first week of July, as asset managers finalize their regulatory S1 filings. This launch will mark a significant moment for the crypto market, with anticipation for how it will affect investor sentiment and market dynamics.

分析師推測，隨著資產管理公司最終完成監管 S1 備案，美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 最快可能在 7 月第一週批准以太坊 ETF。此次發布將標誌著加密貨幣市場的一個重要時刻，人們預計它將如何影響投資者情緒和市場動態。

Also Read: Ethereum Floats on ‘Thin Ice’: Here’s Where & Why ETH Price Rally May Lose Control & Drop Below $2500

另請閱讀：以太坊如履薄冰：這裡是 ETH 價格上漲可能失控並跌破 2500 美元的地方和原因