谁将赢得 ETF 竞赛；比特币 vs 以太坊？

彭博社高级 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 预测，即将推出的基于以太坊的交易所交易基金 (ETF) 将无法与

Senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, Eric Balchunas, predicts that the upcoming Ether-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will not be able to match the massive success of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to him, Bitcoin is like a “crypto hot sauce” that investors can easily understand. However, explaining Ether, with its complicated decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, is more difficult.

彭博社高级 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 预测，即将推出的基于以太坊的交易所交易基金 (ETF) 将无法与美国现货比特币 ETF 的巨大成功相媲美。他认为，比特币就像投资者很容易理解的“加密辣酱”。然而，解释以太坊及其复杂的去中心化金融（DeFi）生态系统则更加困难。

Balchunas sees Ether ETFs as a “sidekick” to Bitcoin ETFs, which have already set records with their initial inflows. This explosive revelation has opened a debate on ETH ETF’s overhyped status, and many are comparing it to the slow performance shown in Hong Kong.

Balchunas 将以太坊 ETF 视为比特币 ETF 的“助手”，比特币 ETF 的初始流入量已经创下了记录。这一爆炸性的消息引发了关于 ETH ETF 过度炒作的争论，许多人将其与香港表现缓慢的表现进行比较。

Bitcoin raised the bar; will Ethereum match the success? Let’s hear from the horse’s mouth!

比特币提高了标准；以太坊会取得同样的成功吗？让我们听听马的嘴吧！

Who will win the ETF Race; Bitcoin vs ETH?

谁将赢得 ETF 竞赛；比特币 vs 以太坊？

Some experts are optimistic despite concerns that Ether ETFs might fall short of Bitcoin ETFs’ success. According to 21Shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder, Ether ETFs will not reach the extraordinary levels of the Bitcoin ETFs, but they will still be successful. She expects the Ether ETFs to perform well.

尽管担心以太坊 ETF 可能达不到比特币 ETF 的成功，但一些专家仍持乐观态度。 21Shares 联合创始人 Ophelia Snyder 表示，以太坊 ETF 不会达到比特币 ETF 的非凡水平，但它们仍然会成功。她预计以太坊 ETF 将会表现良好。

However, she adds that the Bitcoin ETFs set an exceptionally high bar, and the Ether ETFs should be judged against average ETF launches, not against Bitcoin’s record-breaking performance.

然而，她补充说，比特币 ETF 设定了非常高的标准，以太坊 ETF 应该根据 ETF 发行的平均水平来判断，而不是根据比特币破纪录的表现来判断。

Flipping the Coin

翻转硬币

While Bitcoin ETFs are expected to see a huge surge in inflows, reaching $50 billion by 2025, Ethereum ETFs might attract around $15 billion in their first 18 months, with $500 million in the first week, according to Bitwise’s Matt Hougan. Some analysts are doubtful because Ethereum lacks Bitcoin’s “digital gold” status.

Bitwise 的 Matt Hougan 表示，预计比特币 ETF 的资金流入将大幅增加，到 2025 年将达到 500 亿美元，而以太坊 ETF 可能在前 18 个月内吸引约 150 亿美元，第一周吸引 5 亿美元。一些分析师对此表示怀疑，因为以太坊缺乏比特币的“数字黄金”地位。

Yet, Hougan believes that investors have a strong affinity for technology and are actively following companies like Nvidia and Meta. Therefore, to be successful, Ethereum will need to be positioned as a tech platform rather than just a cryptocurrency, and more innovative Ethereum-based products might be required to boost its appeal.

然而，Hougan 认为投资者对技术有很强的亲和力，并积极关注 Nvidia 和 Meta 等公司。因此，为了取得成功，以太坊需要被定位为一个技术平台，而不仅仅是一种加密货币，并且可能需要更多基于以太坊的创新产品来提高其吸引力。

Launch Timeline and Regulatory Updates

启动时间表和监管更新

In the meantime, the SEC is close to the approval process for the Ether ETFs, with Chair Gary Gensler noting that it is “going smoothly.” However, there is no clarity that the ETFs will launch before the November election.

与此同时，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 即将完成以太 ETF 的审批流程，主席加里·根斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 指出，该流程“进展顺利”。然而，目前尚不清楚 ETF 是否会在 11 月大选前推出。

Analysts speculate that the SEC might approve the Ether ETFs as early as the first week of July, as asset managers finalize their regulatory S1 filings. This launch will mark a significant moment for the crypto market, with anticipation for how it will affect investor sentiment and market dynamics.

分析师推测，随着资产管理公司最终完成监管 S1 备案，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 最早可能会在 7 月第一周批准以太坊 ETF。此次发布将标志着加密货币市场的一个重要时刻，人们预计它将如何影响投资者情绪和市场动态。

Also Read: Ethereum Floats on ‘Thin Ice’: Here’s Where & Why ETH Price Rally May Lose Control & Drop Below $2500

另请阅读：以太坊如履薄冰：这里是 ETH 价格上涨可能失去控制并跌破 2500 美元的地方和原因