勞動力和消費者數據疲軟通常是比特幣集會之前的，導致一些分析師預測未來的經濟刺激計劃。

工作空缺降至3月的720萬，而750萬個預測和消費者信心達到了2021年1月以來的最低水平。

Key points:

要點：

* Weak labor and consumer data often precede Bitcoin rallies, leading some analysts to anticipate future economic stimulus programs.

*勞動力和消費者數據疲軟通常是比特幣集會之前的，導致一些分析師預測未來的經濟刺激計劃。

* Job openings fell to 7.2 million in March versus the 7.5 million forecast and consumer confidence hit its lowest level since January 2021.

*職位空缺在3月下降到720萬，而750萬個預測和消費者的信心達到了2021年1月以來的最低水平。

* If past patterns hold, Bitcoin could rally by mid-July and possibly reach $140,000 by October 2025.

*如果過去的模式成立，比特幣可能會在7月中旬之前集會，並可能在2025年10月之前達到140,000美元。

Macroeconomic conditions have long been seen as a major influence on cryptocurrency prices. Generally, Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins perform poorly when investors grow concerned that employment and consumer data are weakening.

宏觀經濟狀況長期以來一直被視為對加密貨幣價格的重大影響。通常，當投資者變得越來越擔心就業和消費者數據正在削弱時，比特幣（BTC）和Altcoins的表現不佳。

However, this usually leads to anticipations of future economic stimulus programs, which could impact cryptocurrency prices in the long term.

但是，這通常會導致對未來經濟刺激計劃的預期，從而可能會影響加密貨幣價格。

According to a US Labor Department JOLTS report released on April 29, job openings in March approached their lowest levels in four years. US employers posted 7.2 million vacancies last month, less than the 7.5 million that economists had anticipated. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan said on Friday that its index of consumer confidence fell for the fifth month in April, reaching 69.9, the lowest reading since January 2021.

根據4月29日發布的美國勞工部震撼報告，三月份的職位空缺在四年內接近了最低水平。上個月，美國雇主發布了720萬個職位空缺，少於經濟學家預期的750萬。同時，密歇根大學週五表示，其消費者信心指數在4月的第五個月下降，達到69.9，這是自2021年1月以來的最低讀數。

As these conditions worsen, there is a higher chance that central banks will intervene with economic stimulus measures, making the overall impact uncertain. Typically, the additional liquidity encourages investment in risk-on assets like Bitcoin as more capital flows into the economy.

隨著這些條件的惡化，中央銀行有可能干預經濟刺激措施，從而使整體影響不確定。通常，隨著更多資本流入經濟，額外的流動性會鼓勵對比特幣等風險資產的投資。

Future expectations matter more than today’s weak economic data

未來的期望比當今的薄弱經濟數據重要

The last time the US experienced a drop in job openings and weakening consumer confidence was between January and June 2024. In the three months that followed, Bitcoin’s price moved in a sideways channel between $53,000 and $66,000. Afterward, a 60% rally began in mid-October, pushing BTC above the $100,000 mark. The final result was positive, but it took over 105 days for this effect to show in the cryptocurrency market.

美國上一次經歷了工作空缺下降，消費者的信心削弱是在2024年1月至2024年6月之間。在隨後的三個月中，比特幣的價格在側向頻道中的價格上漲了53,000美元至66,000美元。此後，10月中旬開始了60％的集會，將BTC推高了100,000美元。最終結果是積極的，但是在加密貨幣市場中，這種效果花了105天以上。

Although these conditions may seem troubling at first glance, weaker labor and consumer sentiment are usually backward-looking. Financial markets and companies make their decisions based on expectations for future economic growth, not just past data. Additionally, improved sentiment among crypto investors usually comes after there is some confirmation of better macroeconomic conditions. This explains why the 105-day lag is not unusual.

儘管乍看之下這些條件似乎令人不安，但勞動力和消費者情緒通常會向後看。金融市場和公司根據對未來經濟增長的期望，而不僅僅是過去的數據。此外，加密貨幣投資者的情緒得到了改善，通常是在確認更好的宏觀經濟狀況之後。這解釋了為什麼105天的滯後並不罕見。

Now, looking back at 2023, a similar situation unfolded with declines in both the labor market data and consumer confidence between January and June. The next four months were difficult, with Bitcoin’s price sliding 18% to reach $25,000. It took 115 days for the price to recover to $30,500 by late October. However, the following two months saw positive developments, with BTC gaining 45% to reach $43,900.

現在，回顧2023年，類似的情況也隨著勞動力市場數據和一月至六月之間的消費者信心的下降而下降。接下來的四個月很困難，比特幣的價格下跌18％，達到25,000美元。到10月下旬，價格花了115天的價格才能恢復至30,500美元。但是，在接下來的兩個月中，有積極的發展，BTC上漲了45％，達到43,900美元。

The last time in the past eight years when both the labor market and consumer confidence suffered significantly was between February 2020 and May 2020, shortly after the implementation of the COVID-19 lockdowns. This period saw Bitcoin briefly fall below $4,000 on March 13, 2020. As a result, a longer period of consolidation was expected before investors regained confidence in the crypto markets.

在過去的八年中，勞動力市場和消費者信心都顯著遭受的最後一次遭受的損失是在2020年2月至2020年5月之間，這是在實施Covid-19-19鎖定之後不久。在此期間，比特幣在2020年3月13日短暫降至4,000美元以下。結果，在投資者重新獲得對加密貨幣市場的信心之前，預計會有更長的合併時間。

Related: Bitcoin acts like ‘store of value that it is’ amid Trump policy chaos: NYDIG

相關：比特幣的作用類似於特朗普政策混亂的“價值存儲”：nydig

Could Bitcoin hit $140,000 by October?

比特幣能在10月到140,000美元嗎？

Examining the macroeconomic data further, there was no major impact on Bitcoin between May 2020 and September 2020, as its price rose from $8,900 to $10,600, a 20% increase. But the next 60 days brought an impressive 85% rally to $19,700. For the third time, weaker labor and consumer sentiment data seemed to precede a rally in Bitcoin prices.

進一步研究宏觀經濟數據，在2020年5月至2020年9月之間，對比特幣沒有重大影響，因為其價格從8,900美元上漲至10,600美元，增長了20％。但是接下來的60天帶來了令人印象深刻的85％集會，至19,700美元。第三次，勞動力和消費者情緒數據似乎是比特幣價格集會之前的。

While the time varied between the lowest point of economic conditions and Bitcoin’s rally, with estimates ranging from 105 to 130 days, the result was clear in all three cases. So, if US job openings and consumer confidence improve from April 2025, it is likely that Bitcoin’s price will begin to rise by mid-July.

儘管經濟狀況的最低點和比特幣集會之間的時間有所不同，估計範圍為105至130天，但在所有三種情況下，結果都很明顯。因此，如果從2025年4月開始，美國的職位空缺和消費者的信心會提高，那麼比特幣的價格可能會在7月中旬開始上漲。

If history repeats itself, this could mean a minimum target of $140,000 by October 2025, but further positive macroeconomic data is needed to confirm this outlook.

如果歷史重演，這可能意味著到2025年10月，最低目標是140,000美元，但是需要進一步的宏觀經濟數據來確認這種前景。