Weak labor and consumer data often precede Bitcoin rallies, leading some analysts to anticipate future economic stimulus programs.

Job openings fell to 7.2 million in March versus the 7.5 million forecast and consumer confidence hit its lowest level since January 2021.

Key points:

* Weak labor and consumer data often precede Bitcoin rallies, leading some analysts to anticipate future economic stimulus programs.

* Job openings fell to 7.2 million in March versus the 7.5 million forecast and consumer confidence hit its lowest level since January 2021.

* If past patterns hold, Bitcoin could rally by mid-July and possibly reach $140,000 by October 2025.

Macroeconomic conditions have long been seen as a major influence on cryptocurrency prices. Generally, Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins perform poorly when investors grow concerned that employment and consumer data are weakening.

However, this usually leads to anticipations of future economic stimulus programs, which could impact cryptocurrency prices in the long term.

According to a US Labor Department JOLTS report released on April 29, job openings in March approached their lowest levels in four years. US employers posted 7.2 million vacancies last month, less than the 7.5 million that economists had anticipated. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan said on Friday that its index of consumer confidence fell for the fifth month in April, reaching 69.9, the lowest reading since January 2021.

As these conditions worsen, there is a higher chance that central banks will intervene with economic stimulus measures, making the overall impact uncertain. Typically, the additional liquidity encourages investment in risk-on assets like Bitcoin as more capital flows into the economy.

Future expectations matter more than today’s weak economic data

The last time the US experienced a drop in job openings and weakening consumer confidence was between January and June 2024. In the three months that followed, Bitcoin’s price moved in a sideways channel between $53,000 and $66,000. Afterward, a 60% rally began in mid-October, pushing BTC above the $100,000 mark. The final result was positive, but it took over 105 days for this effect to show in the cryptocurrency market.

Although these conditions may seem troubling at first glance, weaker labor and consumer sentiment are usually backward-looking. Financial markets and companies make their decisions based on expectations for future economic growth, not just past data. Additionally, improved sentiment among crypto investors usually comes after there is some confirmation of better macroeconomic conditions. This explains why the 105-day lag is not unusual.

Now, looking back at 2023, a similar situation unfolded with declines in both the labor market data and consumer confidence between January and June. The next four months were difficult, with Bitcoin’s price sliding 18% to reach $25,000. It took 115 days for the price to recover to $30,500 by late October. However, the following two months saw positive developments, with BTC gaining 45% to reach $43,900.

The last time in the past eight years when both the labor market and consumer confidence suffered significantly was between February 2020 and May 2020, shortly after the implementation of the COVID-19 lockdowns. This period saw Bitcoin briefly fall below $4,000 on March 13, 2020. As a result, a longer period of consolidation was expected before investors regained confidence in the crypto markets.

Related: Bitcoin acts like ‘store of value that it is’ amid Trump policy chaos: NYDIG

Could Bitcoin hit $140,000 by October?

Examining the macroeconomic data further, there was no major impact on Bitcoin between May 2020 and September 2020, as its price rose from $8,900 to $10,600, a 20% increase. But the next 60 days brought an impressive 85% rally to $19,700. For the third time, weaker labor and consumer sentiment data seemed to precede a rally in Bitcoin prices.

While the time varied between the lowest point of economic conditions and Bitcoin’s rally, with estimates ranging from 105 to 130 days, the result was clear in all three cases. So, if US job openings and consumer confidence improve from April 2025, it is likely that Bitcoin’s price will begin to rise by mid-July.

If history repeats itself, this could mean a minimum target of $140,000 by October 2025, but further positive macroeconomic data is needed to confirm this outlook.