比特幣的波動性正在重新鋪面

高峰超過84,000美元之後，加密貨幣在幾個小時內下降了3.5％。這種回調使人們擔心返回72,000美元

The cryptocurrency market continues to be a subject of heated debate as macroeconomic conditions threaten to exert a critical influence on the price of bitcoin.

加密貨幣市場繼續是激烈辯論的主題，因為宏觀經濟條件有可能對比特幣價格產生關鍵影響。

After a peak beyond 84,000 dollars, bitcoin has dropped by 3.5% in a few hours. This pullback fuels fears of a return to 72,000 dollars, a scenario that seemed unthinkable not long ago. The cause: uncertain macroeconomic liquidity conditions, which weaken risky assets. Some analysts believe that the market could enter a critical phase, where the evolution of monetary policies and investors’ appetite for risk will be decisive.

在達到84,000美元的高峰之後，比特幣在幾個小時內下降了3.5％。這種回調使人們擔心返回72,000美元，這種情況似乎不久前就無法想像。原因：不確定的宏觀經濟流動性條件，削弱了風險資產。一些分析人士認為，市場可以進入關鍵階段，在這種階段，貨幣政策的演變和投資者對風險的需求將是決定性的。

A warning signal on global liquidity

全球流動性的警告信號

The bitcoin market is undergoing a phase of turbulence. After a sharp rejection at the exponential moving average of 200 days, sellers have taken control, resulting in a drop below 84,000 dollars.

比特幣市場正處於動盪階段。在指數式移動平均200天的急劇拒絕之後，賣方控制了控制，導致低於84,000美元。

This correction is set against a broader context, marked by a worrying evolution of macroeconomic liquidity conditions. Analyst Capital Flows indicates on March 27, 2025, on the social network X (formerly Twitter) that if these conditions do not improve, bitcoin could plunge between 72,000 and 75,000 dollars.

這種校正是在更廣泛的背景下設定的，以宏觀經濟流動性條件的令人擔憂的演變為特徵。分析師資本流量在2025年3月27日在社交網絡X（以前是Twitter）上指出，如果這些條件沒有改善，則比特幣可能會跌落72,000至75,000美元。

Several elements explain this threat of correction:

幾個要素解釋了這種更正的威脅：

The analyst emphasizes that although the global money supply continues to increase, this does not necessarily mean that flows into bitcoin will follow. As long as the appetite for risk does not revive, the cryptocurrency could see its bullish momentum compromised.

分析師強調，儘管全球貨幣供應不斷增加，但這並不一定意味著將隨後流入比特幣。只要對風險的胃口沒有恢復，加密貨幣就會使其看漲勢頭受到損害。

Divergent perspectives: towards a drop or a rebound?

不同的觀點：朝下還是反彈？

If the current decline raises fears of a return to 72,000 dollars, other signals may suggest an opposite momentum in the short term.

如果目前的下降使人們擔心返回72,000美元，其他信號可能會在短期內具有相反的勢頭。

Some experts are indeed observing an increase in the global M2 money supply, an indicator that has historically correlated with Bitcoin movements. Indeed, Colin Talks Crypto, a recognized analyst in the industry, specifies on March 27 on the X platform that this trend would indicate a possible recovery of bitcoin around May 1, with a bullish cycle that could last several months.

一些專家確實在觀察到全球M2貨幣供應的增加，這一指標與比特幣運動有關。的確，科林（Colin Talk）是該行業公認的分析師Crypto在3月27日在X平台上指定的，這一趨勢將表明5月1日左右可能會恢復比特幣，而看漲的周期可能會持續幾個月。

However, it will all depend on BTC’s ability to hold certain critical technical levels. Trader Crypto Chase estimates on March 28 on X that the situation is a real problem, and warns that bitcoin must hold above 85,270 dollars to avoid a new bearish wave.

但是，這完全取決於BTC擁有某些關鍵技術水平的能力。 Trader Crypto Chase於3月28日在X上估計，這種情況是一個真正的問題，並警告比特幣必須持有以上85,270美元以上以避免新的看跌浪潮。

“If it fails, I will look for a short on a retest, which would target liquidity around 80,000 dollars,” he specifies. In other words, the market is evolving on a razor’s edge where every movement will be scrutinized closely.

他指出：“如果失敗，我將尋求重新測試的短暫性，這將以約80,000美元的流動性為目標。”換句話說，市場正在在剃須刀的邊緣發展，每個運動都會受到仔細審查。

Between a possible correction towards 72,000 dollars and a potential rebound fueled by the expansion of the money supply, the situation remains uncertain. The Federal Reserve of the United States and other central banks will play a decisive role in market direction through their decisions on interest rates and monetary policy. In this tense environment, investors should expect increased volatility, where bitcoin could quickly oscillate between hope and uncertainty.

在對72,000美元的可能糾正與貨幣供應量擴大所推動的潛在反彈之間，情況仍然不確定。美國和其他中央銀行的美聯儲將通過利率和貨幣政策的決定在市場方向上發揮決定性作用。在這種緊張的環境中，投資者應該期望波動性增加，在希望之間，比特幣可以在希望和不確定性之間迅速振盪。