標準普爾500指數：這是新常態嗎？

策略師正在質疑當今市場中什麼是“正常”。這裡有高股票倍數嗎？讓我們深入研究標準普爾500指數的估值以及推動“新常態”的因素。

S&P 500 Valuations: Is This the New Normal?

標準普爾500指數：這是新常態嗎？

The S&P 500 is flirting with levels not seen since the dot-com era, and Wall Street isn't necessarily hitting the panic button. Instead, they're asking a fundamental question: What even is 'normal' anymore?

標準普爾500標準普爾（S＆P 500）正在調情以來，自《互聯網時代》（Dot-Com Era）以來未見水平，而華爾街不一定要按下恐慌按鈕。取而代之的是，他們問一個基本問題：“正常”是什麼？

Embracing Expensive: A Shift in Perspective

擁抱昂貴：視角轉變

Forget those valuation metrics that used to scream 'danger!' Now, some strategists are suggesting we embrace these high multiples as the new baseline. Bank of America's Savita Subramanian even suggested anchoring to today's multiples rather than expecting a return to the past.

忘記那些曾經尖叫“危險”的估值指標！現在，一些戰略家建議我們將這些高倍數作為新的基線。美國銀行的Savita Subramanian甚至建議錨定今天的倍數，而不是期望重返過去。

The Tech Giant Effect

技術巨頭效應

The rise of tech giants significantly impacts the S&P 500's valuation. CFRA Research's Sam Stovall points out that the S&P 500 trades at a 40% premium to its long-term forward average. However, when measured over the last five years – coinciding with the dominance of tech giants – that gap shrinks considerably.

科技巨頭的興起顯著影響標準普爾500指數的估值。 CFRA Research的Sam Stovall指出，標準普爾500標準普爾的交易價格高達40％的溢價。但是，在過去五年中的測量（與科技巨頭的主導地位相吻合時）差距大大減少。

Powell's Caution vs. Strategist Pushback

鮑威爾的謹慎與戰略家的挑戰

Even the Fed is keeping an eye on things. Jerome Powell recently noted that markets look “fairly highly valued,” drawing comparisons to Alan Greenspan's famous “irrational exuberance” speech. But most strategists aren't convinced we're in a bubble. As iCapital's Sonali Basak wisely advises, don't try to time the top!

甚至美聯儲都在關注事物。杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）最近指出，市場看起來“相當受到重視”，與艾倫·格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）著名的“非理性旺盛”演講進行了比較。但是大多數戰略家並不確信我們處於泡沫狀態。正如Icapital的Sonali Basak明智地建議的那樣，不要試圖使最高點！

Dot-Com Deja Vu? Not Quite.

dot-com deja vu？不完全。

Veteran market analyst Ed Yardeni highlights a crucial difference between now and the dot-com era. While the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio is high, the gap between tech's contribution to the index's value versus its contribution to earnings has narrowed significantly. Today, tech and communication services contribute a larger share of earnings relative to their overall value in the index.

資深市場分析師Ed Yardeni強調了現在與點-COM時代的關鍵差異。儘管標準普爾500指數的遠期價比率很高，但技術對指數價值的貢獻與對收益的貢獻之間的差距已大大縮小。如今，技術和通信服務相對於指數的總體價值貢獻了更大的收益。

The Melt-Up Risk

融化的風險

Forget a crash, Cetera Financial Group's Gene Goldman suggests the real risk is a melt-up – a surge driven by fear of missing out (FOMO). Strong GDP growth, resilient consumer spending, and piles of cash on the sidelines could fuel further gains.

忘了崩潰，Cetera金融集團的Gene Goldman認為，真正的風險是一種融化的風險，這是由於擔心錯過（FOMO）而驅動的激增。強勁的GDP增長，彈性的消費者支出以及場上的現金堆可能會進一步增長。

Looking Ahead: Trading S&P 500 with Crypto

展望未來：與加密貨幣交易標準普爾500

Adding an interesting layer to this discussion is the recent filing by Cyber Hornet for an ETF combining the S&P 500 with cryptocurrencies like XRP, Ethereum, and Solana. Imagine tracking the S&P 500 alongside the performance of digital assets. This innovative approach underscores the evolving relationship between traditional finance and the crypto world.

在此討論中添加有趣的一層是網絡大黃蜂最近提交的ETF，將標準普爾500指數與XRP，以太坊和索拉納等加密貨幣結合在一起。想像一下，跟踪標準普爾500指數，以及數字資產的性能。這種創新的方法強調了傳統金融與加密貨幣世界之間不斷發展的關係。

The Takeaway

外賣

The S&P 500's valuations might seem lofty, but strategists are increasingly accepting this as the new normal. The key is understanding what's driving these valuations, rather than simply comparing them to historical averages. Keep an eye on earnings, economic indicators, and maybe even the performance of those crypto-infused ETFs!

標準普爾500指數的估值似乎很高，但戰略家越來越接受這一新常態。關鍵是了解是什麼推動了這些估值，而不是簡單地將它們與歷史平均值進行比較。請密切關注收入，經濟指標，甚至可能是那些注入加密貨幣的ETF的表現！

So, should you be worried? Maybe a little. But remember, the market rarely does what everyone expects. Buckle up, stay informed, and maybe diversify your portfolio with a dash of crypto – just for kicks!

那麼，您應該擔心嗎？也許有點。但是請記住，市場很少有每個人都期望的事情。扣緊，保持知情，並可能用一點點加密貨幣多樣化您的投資組合 - 只是為了踢！