标准普尔500指数：这是新常态吗？

策略师正在质疑当今市场中什么是“正常”。这里有高股票倍数吗？让我们深入研究标准普尔500指数的估值以及推动“新常态”的因素。

S&P 500 Valuations: Is This the New Normal?

标准普尔500指数：这是新常态吗？

The S&P 500 is flirting with levels not seen since the dot-com era, and Wall Street isn't necessarily hitting the panic button. Instead, they're asking a fundamental question: What even is 'normal' anymore?

标准普尔500标准普尔（S＆P 500）正在调情以来，自《互联网时代》（Dot-Com Era）以来未见水平，而华尔街不一定要按下恐慌按钮。取而代之的是，他们问一个基本问题：“正常”是什么？

Embracing Expensive: A Shift in Perspective

拥抱昂贵：视角转变

Forget those valuation metrics that used to scream 'danger!' Now, some strategists are suggesting we embrace these high multiples as the new baseline. Bank of America's Savita Subramanian even suggested anchoring to today's multiples rather than expecting a return to the past.

忘记那些曾经尖叫“危险”的估值指标！现在，一些战略家建议我们将这些高倍数作为新的基线。美国银行的Savita Subramanian甚至建议锚定今天的倍数，而不是期望重返过去。

The Tech Giant Effect

技术巨头效应

The rise of tech giants significantly impacts the S&P 500's valuation. CFRA Research's Sam Stovall points out that the S&P 500 trades at a 40% premium to its long-term forward average. However, when measured over the last five years – coinciding with the dominance of tech giants – that gap shrinks considerably.

科技巨头的兴起显着影响标准普尔500指数的估值。 CFRA Research的Sam Stovall指出，标准普尔500标准普尔的交易价格高达40％的溢价。但是，在过去五年中的测量（与科技巨头的主导地位相吻合时）差距大大减少。

Powell's Caution vs. Strategist Pushback

鲍威尔的谨慎与战略家的挑战

Even the Fed is keeping an eye on things. Jerome Powell recently noted that markets look “fairly highly valued,” drawing comparisons to Alan Greenspan's famous “irrational exuberance” speech. But most strategists aren't convinced we're in a bubble. As iCapital's Sonali Basak wisely advises, don't try to time the top!

甚至美联储都在关注事物。杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）最近指出，市场看起来“相当受到重视”，与艾伦·格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）著名的“非理性旺盛”演讲进行了比较。但是大多数战略家并不确信我们处于泡沫状态。正如Icapital的Sonali Basak明智地建议的那样，不要试图使最高点！

Dot-Com Deja Vu? Not Quite.

dot-com deja vu？不完全。

Veteran market analyst Ed Yardeni highlights a crucial difference between now and the dot-com era. While the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio is high, the gap between tech's contribution to the index's value versus its contribution to earnings has narrowed significantly. Today, tech and communication services contribute a larger share of earnings relative to their overall value in the index.

资深市场分析师Ed Yardeni强调了现在与点-COM时代的关键差异。尽管标准普尔500指数的远期价比率很高，但技术对指数价值的贡献与对收益的贡献之间的差距已大大缩小。如今，技术和通信服务相对于指数的总体价值贡献了更大的收益。

The Melt-Up Risk

融化的风险

Forget a crash, Cetera Financial Group's Gene Goldman suggests the real risk is a melt-up – a surge driven by fear of missing out (FOMO). Strong GDP growth, resilient consumer spending, and piles of cash on the sidelines could fuel further gains.

忘了崩溃，Cetera金融集团的Gene Goldman认为，真正的风险是一种融化的风险，这是由于担心错过（FOMO）而驱动的激增。强劲的GDP增长，弹性的消费者支出以及场上的现金堆可能会进一步增长。

Looking Ahead: Trading S&P 500 with Crypto

展望未来：与加密货币交易标准普尔500

Adding an interesting layer to this discussion is the recent filing by Cyber Hornet for an ETF combining the S&P 500 with cryptocurrencies like XRP, Ethereum, and Solana. Imagine tracking the S&P 500 alongside the performance of digital assets. This innovative approach underscores the evolving relationship between traditional finance and the crypto world.

在此讨论中添加有趣的一层是网络大黄蜂最近提交的ETF，将标准普尔500指数与XRP，以太坊和索拉纳等加密货币结合在一起。想象一下，跟踪标准普尔500指数，以及数字资产的性能。这种创新的方法强调了传统金融与加密货币世界之间不断发展的关系。

The Takeaway

外卖

The S&P 500's valuations might seem lofty, but strategists are increasingly accepting this as the new normal. The key is understanding what's driving these valuations, rather than simply comparing them to historical averages. Keep an eye on earnings, economic indicators, and maybe even the performance of those crypto-infused ETFs!

标准普尔500指数的估值似乎很高，但战略家越来越接受这一新常态。关键是了解是什么推动了这些估值，而不是简单地将它们与历史平均值进行比较。请密切关注收入，经济指标，甚至可能是那些注入加密货币的ETF的表现！

So, should you be worried? Maybe a little. But remember, the market rarely does what everyone expects. Buckle up, stay informed, and maybe diversify your portfolio with a dash of crypto – just for kicks!

那么，您应该担心吗？也许有点。但是请记住，市场很少有每个人都期望的事情。扣紧，保持知情，并可能用一点点加密货币多样化您的投资组合 - 只是为了踢！