貿易對峙恢復

在美國與歐盟之間的貿易對峙中，新的一集逐漸加劇了緊張局勢。

The trade standoff between the United States and the European Union continues with a new episode that has further heightened tensions. In a move that threatens to devastate the European wine industry and spark a major diplomatic crisis, Donald Trump is once again wielding the threat of massive tariffs, this time on European wines and champagnes.

美國與歐盟之間的貿易僵局繼續以新的發作進一步加劇了緊張局勢。唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的舉動有可能破壞歐洲葡萄酒行業並引發重大的外交危機，這次唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）再次發揮了大規模關稅的威脅，這次是歐洲葡萄酒和香檳的威脅。

This follows Brussels’s decision to raise tariffs on American whiskey by 50%, a move that has been met with fury by the Trump administration. The American president has threatened to retaliate with "tariffs of 200 % on all wines, champagnes, and alcoholic products coming from France and other EU countries."

這是在布魯塞爾決定將對美國威士忌的關稅提高50％之後，這一舉動與特朗普政府遭到了憤怒。美國總統威脅要對“所有葡萄酒，香檳和來自法國和其他歐盟國家的酒精產品的關稅徵收200％的關稅”。

"If these tariffs are not immediately removed, the United States will quickly impose tariffs of 200 % on all wines, champagnes, and alcoholic products coming from France and other EU countries. The EU is one of the most abusive and hostile authorities in the world regarding taxes and tariffs," Trump wrote on Thursday, March 13 on Truth Social.

“如果沒有立即取消這些關稅，美國將迅速對來自法國和其他歐盟國家的所有葡萄酒，香檳和酒精產品徵收200％的關稅。歐盟是世界上有關稅收和關稅的最虐待和敵對的當局之一，”特朗普在3月13日星期四在《真理社會》上寫道。

This new episode fits into a cycle of trade tensions initiated during Trump’s first term and marked by an aggressive taxation policy. The EU had already retaliated against American tariffs on steel and aluminum (25 %) with sanctions on several American products, including bourbon and motorcycles. Thus, the White House intends to retaliate with the same punitive logic.

這一新事件符合特朗普第一任期內發起的貿易緊張局勢，並以積極的稅收政策為標誌。歐盟已經對鋼鐵和鋁的美國關稅進行了報復（25％），並對包括波旁威士忌和摩托車在內的幾種美國產品進行了製裁。因此，白宮打算以相同的懲罰性邏輯進行報復。

The impact of this decision would be devastating for the European wine industry. Moreover, the United States represents the largest export market for French wines and spirits, with a turnover of 3.8 billion euros in 2024, according to the Federation of Wine and Spirit Exporters of France (FEVS). A 200 % tax could lead to a collapse in sales and a major loss of competitiveness against local producers and South American wines.

這一決定的影響將對歐洲葡萄酒行業造成破壞。此外，根據法國聯合會（FEVS）的數據，美國代表了法國葡萄酒和烈酒的最大出口市場，在2024年的營業額為38億歐元（FEVS）。 200％的稅收可能導致銷售崩潰，並對當地生產商和南美葡萄酒產生重大競爭力。

Professionals in the sector denounce an instrumentalization of trade. "We are tired of being systematically sacrificed for issues unrelated to ours," laments Nicolas Ozanam, General Director of FEVS. The European lobby Spirits Europe also calls for "stop using" the sector "as a bargaining chip in conflicts that have nothing to do with it."

該部門的專業人士譴責貿易工具化。 FEVS總經理尼古拉斯·奧扎納姆（Nicolas Ozanam）表示：“我們厭倦了為與我們的問題無關的問題而被系統地犧牲。”歐洲大廳的歐洲還要求“停止使用“行業”作為與之無關的衝突中的討價還價籌碼。”

While the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, claims that the EU is "open to negotiation," the political response is being organized. François Bayrou, the French Prime Minister, immediately reacted: "We cannot let ourselves be overwhelmed by threats of this kind." His Minister for Foreign Trade, Laurent Saint-Martin, insists: "We will not yield to threats and will always protect our sectors."

歐洲委員會主席厄休拉·馮·萊恩（Ursula von der Leyen）聲稱歐盟“接受談判開放”，但政治反應正在組織。法國總理弗朗索瓦·貝魯（FrançoisBayrou）立即做出反應：“我們不能讓自己被這種威脅所淹沒。”他的外貿部長勞倫特·聖馬丁堅持認為：“我們不會屈服於威脅，並且將永遠保護我們的部門。”

Trump’s electoral base, particularly in whisky-producing states like Kentucky, is likely to applaud these protectionist measures. The European taxation on bourbon has been perceived as an attack on an emblematic industry of the United States. Trump aims to demonstrate his firmness against the EU while reinforcing his image as a defender of the American economy.

特朗普的選舉基礎，尤其是在肯塔基州等寒冷的國家中，可能會為這些貿易保護主義措施稱讚。歐洲對波旁威士忌的稅收被認為是對美國象徵行業的攻擊。特朗普的目標是證明他對歐盟的堅定性，同時增強他作為美國經濟捍衛者的形象。

Previous customs conflicts have shown that these measures can quickly extend to other sectors. In 2018, the Trump administration had already imposed tariffs on French wine in the context of the Airbus-Boeing conflict. Today, the fear of a domino effect is being felt. A commercial escalation could impact other luxury industries, agricultural exports, or even the technology sector.

以前的海關衝突表明，這些措施可以迅速擴展到其他部門。 2018年，在空中客車衝突的背景下，特朗普政府已經對法國葡萄酒徵收關稅。如今，人們感到對多米諾骨牌效應的恐懼。商業升級可能會影響其他奢侈品行業，農業出口，甚至可能影響技術領域。

The outcome of this standoff remains uncertain. A diplomatic compromise is still possible, particularly through a renegotiation of tariffs. However, the electoral dynamics in the United States could prompt Trump to maintain a hardline stance against Brussels. If no agreement is reached, the specter of a prolonged trade war could weigh on the global economy, financial markets, and even investors’ confidence in international trade. One thing is for sure: the wine battle is just beginning.

這種對峙的結果仍然不確定。仍然有可能進行外交妥協，尤其是通過重新談判關稅。但是，美國的選舉動力可能會促使特朗普對布魯塞爾保持堅決的立場。如果未達成協議，延長貿易戰的幽靈可能會影響全球經濟，金融市場，甚至投資者對國際貿易的信心。可以肯定的是：葡萄酒之戰才剛剛開始。