贸易对峙恢复

在美国与欧盟之间的贸易对峙中，新的一集逐渐加剧了紧张局势。

The trade standoff between the United States and the European Union continues with a new episode that has further heightened tensions. In a move that threatens to devastate the European wine industry and spark a major diplomatic crisis, Donald Trump is once again wielding the threat of massive tariffs, this time on European wines and champagnes.

美国与欧盟之间的贸易僵局继续以新的发作进一步加剧了紧张局势。唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的举动有可能破坏欧洲葡萄酒行业并引发重大的外交危机，这次唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）再次发挥了大规模关税的威胁，这次是欧洲葡萄酒和香槟的威胁。

This follows Brussels’s decision to raise tariffs on American whiskey by 50%, a move that has been met with fury by the Trump administration. The American president has threatened to retaliate with "tariffs of 200 % on all wines, champagnes, and alcoholic products coming from France and other EU countries."

这是在布鲁塞尔决定将对美国威士忌的关税提高50％之后，这一举动与特朗普政府遭到了愤怒。美国总统威胁要对“所有葡萄酒，香槟和来自法国和其他欧盟国家的酒精产品的关税征收200％的关税”。

"If these tariffs are not immediately removed, the United States will quickly impose tariffs of 200 % on all wines, champagnes, and alcoholic products coming from France and other EU countries. The EU is one of the most abusive and hostile authorities in the world regarding taxes and tariffs," Trump wrote on Thursday, March 13 on Truth Social.

“如果没有立即取消这些关税，美国将迅速对来自法国和其他欧盟国家的所有葡萄酒，香槟和酒精产品征收200％的关税。欧盟是世界上有关税收和关税的最虐待和敌对的当局之一，”特朗普在3月13日星期四在《真理社会》上写道。

This new episode fits into a cycle of trade tensions initiated during Trump’s first term and marked by an aggressive taxation policy. The EU had already retaliated against American tariffs on steel and aluminum (25 %) with sanctions on several American products, including bourbon and motorcycles. Thus, the White House intends to retaliate with the same punitive logic.

这一新事件符合特朗普第一任期内发起的贸易紧张局势，并以积极的税收政策为标志。欧盟已经对钢铁和铝的美国关税进行了报复（25％），并对包括波旁威士忌和摩托车在内的几种美国产品进行了制裁。因此，白宫打算以相同的惩罚性逻辑进行报复。

The impact of this decision would be devastating for the European wine industry. Moreover, the United States represents the largest export market for French wines and spirits, with a turnover of 3.8 billion euros in 2024, according to the Federation of Wine and Spirit Exporters of France (FEVS). A 200 % tax could lead to a collapse in sales and a major loss of competitiveness against local producers and South American wines.

这一决定的影响将对欧洲葡萄酒行业造成破坏。此外，根据法国联合会（FEVS）的数据，美国代表了法国葡萄酒和烈酒的最大出口市场，在2024年的营业额为38亿欧元（FEVS）。 200％的税收可能导致销售崩溃，并对当地生产商和南美葡萄酒产生重大竞争力。

Professionals in the sector denounce an instrumentalization of trade. "We are tired of being systematically sacrificed for issues unrelated to ours," laments Nicolas Ozanam, General Director of FEVS. The European lobby Spirits Europe also calls for "stop using" the sector "as a bargaining chip in conflicts that have nothing to do with it."

该部门的专业人士谴责贸易工具化。 FEVS总经理尼古拉斯·奥扎纳姆（Nicolas Ozanam）表示：“我们厌倦了为与我们的问题无关的问题而被系统地牺牲。”欧洲大厅的欧洲还要求“停止使用“行业”作为与之无关的冲突中的讨价还价筹码。”

While the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, claims that the EU is "open to negotiation," the political response is being organized. François Bayrou, the French Prime Minister, immediately reacted: "We cannot let ourselves be overwhelmed by threats of this kind." His Minister for Foreign Trade, Laurent Saint-Martin, insists: "We will not yield to threats and will always protect our sectors."

欧洲委员会主席厄休拉·冯·莱恩（Ursula von der Leyen）声称欧盟“接受谈判开放”，但政治反应正在组织。法国总理弗朗索瓦·贝鲁（FrançoisBayrou）立即做出反应：“我们不能让自己被这种威胁所淹没。”他的外贸部长劳伦特·圣马丁坚持认为：“我们不会屈服于威胁，并且将永远保护我们的部门。”

Trump’s electoral base, particularly in whisky-producing states like Kentucky, is likely to applaud these protectionist measures. The European taxation on bourbon has been perceived as an attack on an emblematic industry of the United States. Trump aims to demonstrate his firmness against the EU while reinforcing his image as a defender of the American economy.

特朗普的选举基础，尤其是在肯塔基州等寒冷的国家中，可能会为这些贸易保护主义措施称赞。欧洲对波旁威士忌的税收被认为是对美国象征行业的攻击。特朗普的目标是证明他对欧盟的坚定性，同时增强他作为美国经济捍卫者的形象。

Previous customs conflicts have shown that these measures can quickly extend to other sectors. In 2018, the Trump administration had already imposed tariffs on French wine in the context of the Airbus-Boeing conflict. Today, the fear of a domino effect is being felt. A commercial escalation could impact other luxury industries, agricultural exports, or even the technology sector.

以前的海关冲突表明，这些措施可以迅速扩展到其他部门。 2018年，在空中客车冲突的背景下，特朗普政府已经对法国葡萄酒征收关税。如今，人们感到对多米诺骨牌效应的恐惧。商业升级可能会影响其他奢侈品行业，农业出口，甚至可能影响技术领域。

The outcome of this standoff remains uncertain. A diplomatic compromise is still possible, particularly through a renegotiation of tariffs. However, the electoral dynamics in the United States could prompt Trump to maintain a hardline stance against Brussels. If no agreement is reached, the specter of a prolonged trade war could weigh on the global economy, financial markets, and even investors’ confidence in international trade. One thing is for sure: the wine battle is just beginning.

这种对峙的结果仍然不确定。仍然有可能进行外交妥协，尤其是通过重新谈判关税。但是，美国的选举动力可能会促使特朗普对布鲁塞尔保持坚决的立场。如果未达成协议，延长贸易战的幽灵可能会影响全球经济，金融市场，甚至投资者对国际贸易的信心。可以肯定的是：葡萄酒之战才刚刚开始。