根據Bitwise Cio Matt Hougan的說法，現在是投資比特幣（BTC）的最佳時機

據以加密性資產管理公司的位置首席投資官（CIO）Matt Hougan表示，從來沒有更好的時間投資比特幣（BTC）

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer (CIO) at crypto-focussed asset management firm Bitwise, recently argued that there’s never been a better time to invest in Bitcoin (BTC) on a risk-adjust basis.

以Crypto Coscused Asset Management公司Bitwise的首席投資官（CIO）Matt Hougan最近辯稱，從來沒有有更好的時間來對比特幣（BTC）進行風險調整。

While you may be thinking that buying Bitcoin in 2010 seems like it would’ve been a better time, Hougan explained in his article, published March 25, that he believes now is a better time to buy — and it all comes down to risk.

Hougan在3月25日發表的文章中解釋說，雖然您可能會認為2010年購買比特幣似乎是一個更好的時光，但他認為現在是一個更好的購買時機 - 這一切都降低了風險。

Early Bitcoin adopters saw bigger gains than those investing today are likely to see, but they were also exposed to much larger risks, according to the Bitwise CIO. However, with the rise of reliable exchanges and advances like the launch of Bitcoin ETFs and Trump’s executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, all the major risks associated with investing in Bitcoin have now been addressed.

根據Bitwise CIO的說法，早期的比特幣採用者的收益比今天投資的人更大，但他們的風險也更大。但是，隨著可靠的交流和進步的興起，例如Bitcoin ETF的推出以及特朗普的行政命令建立戰略性比特幣儲備金，現在已經解決了與投資比特幣相關的所有主要風險。

Early Adopters of Bitcoin Took Big Risks

比特幣的早期採用者承擔了很大的風險

Hougan shared the story of when he personally missed his chance to buy Bitcoin back in 2011: after being told about Bitcoin’s potential by a colleague he decided to go grab a coffee instead of immediately buying $1000 worth of Bitcoin. Had he invested then, his $1000 would now be worth around $88 million.

霍根（Hougan）分享了一個故事，即當他親自錯過了2011年購買比特幣的機會時：一位同事被告知比特幣的潛力後，他決定去喝杯咖啡，而不是立即購買價值1000美元的比特幣。如果他當時投資，他的1000美元現在價值約8800萬美元。

However, Hougan points out, Bitcoin was still very much in its infancy in those days and investors had to deal with all kinds of questionable websites and shady characters to get their hands on some Bitcoin. He referred to the fact that a leading crypto exchange at the time — New Liberty Financial — handled exchanges through Paypal via a gmail address and described its service as a “personal hobby”.

但是，霍根指出，當時比特幣仍處於起步階段，投資者不得不處理各種可疑的網站和陰暗角色，以獲取一些比特幣。他提到的事實是，當時領先的加密貨幣交易所（新的Liberty Financial）通過PayPal通過Gmail地址處理交流，並將其服務描述為“個人愛好”。

As Bitcoin Has Matured, Risks Have Decreased Significantly

隨著比特幣的成熟，風險已大大降低

As Bitcoin matured as a technology the risks associated with investing in it have dropped substantially, massively improving the risk versus reward calculation, according to Hougan.

據Hougan稱，隨著比特幣的成熟，與投資相關的風險已經大大下降，大大改善了風險與獎勵計算。

Over the years most serious risks associated with Bitcoin have been addressed, including the emergence of safe exchanges for trading crypto and secure custody solutions for holding it, while concerns about criminal activity, regulation, and mining concentration have also been largely alleviated, according to the Bitwise CIO, who claims that bitcoin has overcome every one of these “existential risks”.

多年來，已經解決了與比特幣相關的最嚴重風險，包括出現安全交易加密和安全保管解決方案的安全交流，而對犯罪活動，監管和採礦集中的擔憂也很大程度上減輕了，他們聲稱比特幣已經克服了這些“存在的”風險。

When Bitcoin ETFs emerged in early 2024, according to Hougan, that addressed another major risk by providing regulatory clarity to institutional investors. However, one major risk remained: the risk that the US government would ban Bitcoin.

據Hougan稱，當比特幣ETF在2024年初出現時，這通過為機構投資者提供監管清晰度來解決另一種主要風險。但是，仍然存在一個主要風險：美國政府禁止比特幣的風險。

That risk essentially evaporated earlier this month, according to the Bitwise CIO, when Trump signed the executive order establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the US.

根據Bitwise CIO的說法，本月初，當特朗普簽署了在美國建立戰略性比特幣儲備的行政命令時，這種風險實際上蒸發了。

According to Hougan, Trump has signalled the US government now sees Bitcoin not so much as a rival to the US dollar’s status as the global reserve currency, but instead as the “best backup plan on the market” should anything go seriously wrong with the fiat system:

據豪揚稱，特朗普表示，美國政府現在認為比特幣不像美元的地位那樣的競爭對手，而是全球儲備貨幣，而是作為“市場上最佳備份計劃”，如果菲亞特體系嚴重錯誤，則是競爭對手：

Since the signing of the executive order, Hougan said Bitwise has already seen investors recognising this ‘derisking’ of Bitcoin and increasing the size of their holdings accordingly, with many increasing their Bitcoin allocations from the 1% range to 3%.

自從執行命令簽署以來，Hougan表示，Bitwise已經看到投資者認識到比特幣的這種“貶低”，並相應地增加了其持股規模，許多人將比特幣分配從1％增加到3％。

He believes this trend is set to continue, anticipating allocations of 5% or higher as more investors understand where Bitcoin is heading in the future.

他認為，隨著更多的投資者了解將來比特幣的發展方向，這種趨勢將繼續下去，預計將分配5％或更高。

“As more of the world wakes up to the massive derisking we’ve seen in bitcoin, I think you’ll see this number rise to 5% and beyond,” he said.

他說：“隨著世界越來越多地喚醒我們在比特幣中看到的巨大貶值，我認為您會看到這個數字上升到5％及以後。”