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Goran Skosples是俄亥俄州衛斯理大學經濟學副教授。
Tariffs have recently been the topic of both significant policy recommendations and casual conversations.
關稅最近是重要的政策建議和休閒對話的主題。
One of the main stated reasons for tariff increases has been that we are running persistent trade deficits with other countries who are taking advantage of our country. An increase in tariffs would, as it is claimed, improve our trade balance by decreasing our imports.
關稅增加的主要理由之一是,我們正在與利用我們國家的其他國家持續存在貿易赤字。據稱,關稅的增加將通過減少進口量來改善我們的貿易平衡。
It is clear that the United States is running a trade deficit vis-à-vis the rest of the world. It currently sits at about $900 billion, or about 3% of GDP.
顯然,美國正在與世界其他地區進行貿易赤字。目前,它的價格約為9000億美元,約佔GDP的3%。
This means that we are consuming more goods and services (actually goods) than we produce. It is difficult to understand how other countries are taking advantage of the United States, as it has been claimed recently, if we can have higher consumption than we would be able to have if we did not have a trade deficit. In other words, a trade deficit allows us to live “beyond our means.”
這意味著我們要消費的商品和服務(實際上是商品)比生產的更多。正如最近所聲稱的那樣,如果我們沒有貿易赤字,我們的消費能力高於我們所能擁有的,那麼很難理解其他國家如何利用美國。換句話說,貿易赤字使我們能夠“超越自己的手段”。
Perhaps other countries are lending us the means and in the future, they will come to collect and then we will have to face the harsh truth of having lived beyond our means.
也許其他國家正在藉給我們手段,將來,他們將來收集,然後我們將不得不面對生活在我們手段之外的苛刻真理。
This line of reasoning misses the other side of the coin. In the language of economics, the flow of goods and services (trade) is referred to as the current account. The other side of the coin is the flow of funds or the capital account.
這種推理線錯過了硬幣的另一側。用經濟學的語言,商品和服務的流(貿易)稱為經常賬戶。硬幣的另一面是資金或資本帳戶的流動。
It is not that other countries are lending us the means which we then use to buy goods and services from these countries, but it is rather that we are selling them something on the other side of the coin.
並不是說其他國家正在藉給我們從這些國家購買商品和服務的手段,而是我們在硬幣的另一端向他們出售東西。
What we are selling are different assets such as stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. When we purchase more goods and services from other countries and send our dollars to them, they use those same dollars to purchase our assets.
我們銷售的是不同的資產,例如股票,債券,房地產等。當我們從其他國家購買更多商品和服務並將我們的美元發送給它們時,他們會使用相同的美元購買我們的資產。
As it turns out, our deficit in good and services, or the current account, equals the sale of our assets, or the capital account. This is what is known as, albeit in a simplified version, the balance of payments. When we experience a larger trade deficit it is financed by a larger sale of assets.
事實證明,我們在良好和服務方面的赤字或經常帳戶等於我們的資產出售或資本帳戶。這就是所謂的,儘管在簡化版本中,付款的餘額。當我們遇到較大的貿易赤字時,它將通過更大的資產銷售資助。
A common misunderstanding is to draw a parallel between the entire economy and an individual.
一個普遍的誤解是在整個經濟和個人之間達成平行。
If an individual enjoys larger consumption (equivalent to a trade deficit) and finances it by selling assets, that cannot be sustained as assets are limited and are eventually depleted. An individual cannot sensibly live “beyond her means” in perpetuity. But imagine that this individual is a skilled artisan creating world-renowned wicker baskets.
如果個人享有更大的消費(相當於貿易赤字),並通過出售資產來為其融資,那麼由於資產是有限的,最終被耗盡的資產,這種資產就無法維持。一個人不能永久地“超越她的手段”。但是想像一下,這個人是一個熟練的工匠,創造了世界知名的柳條籃。
Every basket she weaves is technically her asset and she can sell it. In this situation, one would not consider her financing consumption by selling her baskets living “beyond her means.”
從技術上講,她編織的每個籃子都是她的資產,她可以出售它。在這種情況下,人們不會通過出售“超越手段”的籃子來考慮她的融資消費。
She would only face a problem if she stopped weaving baskets and then she would have to reduce her consumption of goods and services. She would not be able to finance her consumption if she stopped creating new assets.
她只有停止編織籃子,然後她必須減少商品和服務的消費,她才會面臨問題。如果她停止創建新資產,她將無法為自己的消費提供資金。
Is a persistent trade deficit really bad?
持續的貿易赤字真的很糟糕嗎?
If we zoom out to the entire economy, if our stock of assets is fixed and we do not create new assets, we would not be able to keep selling our assets forever to finance consuming more goods and services than we produce, or, in other words, we would not be able to run a trade deficit.
如果我們將資產庫存固定並且沒有創造新的資產,那麼我們將無法繼續銷售我們的資產來為消費更多的商品和服務提供比我們生產的更多的商品和服務,或者,換句話說,我們將無法經營貿易赤字。
However, we do create new assets all the time. One thing the United States is good at is innovation and creating businesses. What we miss by focusing on the trade of goods and services, where we are running deficit, is the sale of something we are very skilled at producing and selling, and that is our innovation and business creation, where we are running an equivalent surplus.
但是,我們確實一直在創建新資產。美國擅長的一件事是創新和創造企業。我們通過關注赤字的商品和服務的貿易而錯過的是我們非常擅長生產和銷售的東西,這就是我們的創新和創造商業創造,我們正在經營等效的盈餘。
In his "The Wealth of Nations," Adam Smith set out to find why some countries are wealthy and some countries are not. One of his main conclusions was that when a country specializes in something it is good at and trades with others, it does better than when it tries to do everything itself.
亞當·史密斯(Adam Smith)在他的“國際財富”中著手尋找為什麼某些國家富有而某些國家不屬於的國家。他的主要結論之一是,當一個國家專門從事擅長的事物並與他人進行交易時,它比試圖做所有事情本身的事情要好。
Since we are very good at innovation and business creation, specializing in this makes us better off than would be otherwise. The fact that we are able to run persistent trade deficits is not a sign of weakness, but rather a sign that we are good at creating assets that are attractive to other countries.
由於我們非常擅長創新和創造商業,因此專門研究這使我們變得更好。我們能夠持續貿易赤字的事實並不是弱點的跡象,而是一個跡象表明我們善於創造對其他國家有吸引力的資產。
America Inc. is something that we specialize in and is highly desirable around the world.
美國公司是我們專門研究的事情,並且在世界範圍內是非常可取的。
Increasing tariffs may be an attempt to “solve” the problem of persistent trade deficits. That is, if you believe that our trade deficit is a problem that needs solving.
提高關稅可能是“解決”持續貿易赤字問題的嘗試。也就是說,如果您認為我們的貿易赤字是需要解決的問題。
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