為什麼SUI即使創新也可能是“這個週期中最大的失望”

近幾個月來，SUI一直是表現最佳的山寨幣。自4月7日以來，它已提供125％的回報，遠遠超過41％的平均收益

SUI has certainly been a hot topic in the crypto world. After April 7, it’s reported to have delivered 125% return, smashing the average 41% gain across the top 125 crypto assets (excluding the top 10).

Sui當然是加密貨幣世界中的熱門話題。據報導，在4月7日之後，它帶來了125％的回報，在前125名加密貨幣資產中平均增長了41％（不包括前10名）。

This kind of price action tends to catch attention, especially when it’s performing so well despite the bear market. And as we’ve highlighted before, SUI is also credited with being a leader in innovation and scalability.

這種價格動作往往會引起人們的注意，尤其是當熊市表現如此出色時。正如我們之前所強調的那樣，Sui還被認為是創新和可擴展性的領導者。

Its rapid growth has also earned it “safe investment” status in the eyes of many. The project is well known, its tech is impressive, and it now holds a market cap of over $10 billion, placing it firmly in the top 15. But not everyone is buying into the hype.

它的快速增長也使它在許多人眼中贏得了“安全投資”的狀態。該項目眾所周知，其技術令人印象深刻，現在其市值超過100億美元，將其牢固地列入了前15名。但並不是每個人都在購買炒作。

In fact, YouTuber C-Zar from C-Zar Gets Crypto argues that SUI might become one of the biggest disappointments of this cycle, even if it continues to perform well short-term.

實際上，來自C-Zar的YouTuber C-Zar Get Crypto認為SUI可能會成為本週期中最大的失望之一，即使它繼續短期表現良好。

The Case Against Overhyped Growth

反對過度增長的情況

C-Zar explains that while SUI’s technology is interesting and its community support is strong, the project may have already priced in most of its potential upside. With a fully diluted valuation of around $32 billion, the ceiling for major gains becomes more relevant, especially in a bear market.

C-Zar解釋說，儘管Sui的技術很有趣，並且其社區支持很大，但該項目可能已經在其大多數潛在上行方面定價。憑藉約320億美元的全部稀釋估值，主要收益的上限變得更加相關，尤其是在熊市中。

This kind of valuation pressure is one reason he warns investors not to get caught up in “pie-in-the-sky” price predictions. Instead, he suggests focusing on realistic price targets and considering the technical aspects of the project.

這種估值壓力是他警告投資者不要陷入“天空般的”價格預測中的原因之一。相反，他建議專注於現實的價格目標並考慮項目的技術方面。

He also highlights SUI’s token unlock schedule as a red flag. A steady flow of new tokens entering circulation between now and next April could create persistent downward pressure on the SUI price.

他還重點介紹了Sui的代幣解鎖時間表作為危險信號。從現在到明年4月之間進入流通的新令牌的穩定流可能會對SUI價格持續下降壓力。

While Cesar admits that some token release data might not be entirely accurate, the overall effect of dilution is something investors should keep in mind.

塞薩爾（Cesar）承認，某些令牌發布數據可能不是完全準確的，但稀釋的總體效果是投資者應牢記的。

Unrealistic Targets and Historical Reality

不切實際的目標和歷史現實

Throughout the video, C-Zar pushes back against the popular SUI price predictions floating around YouTube and X. He firmly believes that projections like $40, $60, or even $100 per token are not grounded in past market behavior.

在整個視頻中，C-Zar都反對YouTube和X周圍流行的SUI價格預測。他堅信預測諸如40美元，60美元甚至100美元的預測並未以過去的市場行為為基​​礎。

At its current price of $3.20, SUI would need an astronomical market cap of $100 billion to reach those levels, a feat that only Ethereum and XRP have achieved in their first full cycle.

SUI以目前的價格為3.20美元，需要1000億美元的天文市場上限才能達到這些水平，這一壯舉只有以太坊和XRP在其第一個完整週期中才實現。

He makes it clear that historically, no other project has cracked the $100 billion mark in their inaugural cycle, no matter how hyped or revolutionary. Even Bitcoin, the king cryptocurrency, failed to reach that valuation in its first cycle.

他清楚地表明，從歷史上看，無論多麼大肆宣傳或革命性，都沒有其他項目在其就職週期中破壞了1000億美元的成績。即使是比特幣，國王加密貨幣也未能在其第一個週期中達到這一估值。

Furthermore, he emphasizes that the crypto landscape is now more diluted, and investors have a greater variety of options than they did in previous cycles, rendering such price targets less likely.

此外，他強調的是，加密貨幣景觀現在更加稀釋，投資者比以前的周期更有多種選擇，使此類價格目標的可能性更低。

Read Also: What If SUI Captures 10% of XRP’S Market Cap? Price Math Revealed

另請閱讀：如果SUI捕獲了XRP市值的10％，該怎麼辦？價格數學揭示了

The Only Way SIV Hits $100 Billion

SIV達到1000億美元的唯一方法

The only scenario where C-Zar sees SUI hitting a $100 billion market cap is if it gets adopted by a nation-state as part of its crypto reserves.

C-Zar認為SUI達到1000億美元市值的唯一情況是，如果由民族國家作為加密儲備金的一部分被民族國家採用。

He notes that countries like Kazakhstan have explored adding BTC and BNB to their reserves, and the U.S. reportedly holds BTC, ETH, ADA, XRP, and SOL. But SUI, being only 1.5 years old, is far too new and unproven to earn that kind of trust—at least for now.

他指出，像哈薩克斯坦這樣的國家探索了將BTC和BNB添加到其儲備中，據報導，美國持有BTC，ETH，ADA，XRP和SOL。但是，只有1.5歲的Sui過於新事物和未經證實的信任，至少到目前為止。

He argues that crypto projects need to survive multiple market cycles to be considered reserve-worthy. SUI might succeed in this cycle, but there are no guarantees it will be around, let alone thriving, in the next one.

他認為，加密項目需要在多個市場週期中倖存下來才能被認為是值得保留的。 Sui可能會在這個週期中取得成功，但是不能保證它會在下一個週期中，更不用說蓬勃發展了。

C-Zar is not saying SUI will crash. He’s saying that for a project with so much promise and visibility, expectations might already be stretched too far.

C-Zar並不是說Sui會崩潰。他說的是，對於一個具有如此多希望和可見性的項目，期望可能已經太遠了。

Follow us on X (Twitter), CoinMarketCap and Binance Square for more daily crypto updates.Read our recent crypto market updates, news, and technical analysis here.

在X（Twitter），CoinMarketCap和Binance Square上關注我們以獲取更多日常加密更新。在此處閱讀我們最近的加密市場更新，新聞和技術分析。

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