为什么SUI即使创新也可能是“这个周期中最大的失望”

近几个月来，SUI一直是表现最佳的山寨币。自4月7日以来，它已提供125％的回报，远远超过41％的平均收益

SUI has certainly been a hot topic in the crypto world. After April 7, it’s reported to have delivered 125% return, smashing the average 41% gain across the top 125 crypto assets (excluding the top 10).

Sui当然是加密货币世界中的热门话题。据报道，在4月7日之后，它带来了125％的回报，在前125名加密货币资产中平均增长了41％（不包括前10名）。

This kind of price action tends to catch attention, especially when it’s performing so well despite the bear market. And as we’ve highlighted before, SUI is also credited with being a leader in innovation and scalability.

这种价格动作往往会引起人们的注意，尤其是当熊市表现如此出色时。正如我们之前所强调的那样，Sui还被认为是创新和可扩展性的领导者。

Its rapid growth has also earned it “safe investment” status in the eyes of many. The project is well known, its tech is impressive, and it now holds a market cap of over $10 billion, placing it firmly in the top 15. But not everyone is buying into the hype.

它的快速增长也使它在许多人眼中赢得了“安全投资”的状态。该项目众所周知，其技术令人印象深刻，现在其市值超过100亿美元，将其牢固地列入了前15名。但并不是每个人都在购买炒作。

In fact, YouTuber C-Zar from C-Zar Gets Crypto argues that SUI might become one of the biggest disappointments of this cycle, even if it continues to perform well short-term.

实际上，来自C-Zar的YouTuber C-Zar Get Crypto认为SUI可能会成为本周期中最大的失望之一，即使它继续短期表现良好。

The Case Against Overhyped Growth

反对过度增长的情况

C-Zar explains that while SUI’s technology is interesting and its community support is strong, the project may have already priced in most of its potential upside. With a fully diluted valuation of around $32 billion, the ceiling for major gains becomes more relevant, especially in a bear market.

C-Zar解释说，尽管Sui的技术很有趣，并且其社区支持很大，但该项目可能已经在其大多数潜在上行方面定价。凭借约320亿美元的全部稀释估值，主要收益的上限变得更加相关，尤其是在熊市中。

This kind of valuation pressure is one reason he warns investors not to get caught up in “pie-in-the-sky” price predictions. Instead, he suggests focusing on realistic price targets and considering the technical aspects of the project.

这种估值压力是他警告投资者不要陷入“天空般的”价格预测中的原因之一。相反，他建议专注于现实的价格目标并考虑项目的技术方面。

He also highlights SUI’s token unlock schedule as a red flag. A steady flow of new tokens entering circulation between now and next April could create persistent downward pressure on the SUI price.

他还重点介绍了Sui的代币解锁时间表作为危险信号。从现在到明年4月之间进入流通的新令牌的稳定流可能会对SUI价格持续下降压力。

While Cesar admits that some token release data might not be entirely accurate, the overall effect of dilution is something investors should keep in mind.

塞萨尔（Cesar）承认，某些令牌发布数据可能不是完全准确的，但稀释的总体效果是投资者应牢记的。

Unrealistic Targets and Historical Reality

不切实际的目标和历史现实

Throughout the video, C-Zar pushes back against the popular SUI price predictions floating around YouTube and X. He firmly believes that projections like $40, $60, or even $100 per token are not grounded in past market behavior.

在整个视频中，C-Zar都反对YouTube和X周围流行的SUI价格预测。他坚信预测诸如40美元，60美元甚至100美元的预测并未以过去的市场行为为基​​础。

At its current price of $3.20, SUI would need an astronomical market cap of $100 billion to reach those levels, a feat that only Ethereum and XRP have achieved in their first full cycle.

SUI以目前的价格为3.20美元，需要1000亿美元的天文市场上限才能达到这些水平，这一壮举只有以太坊和XRP在其第一个完整周期中才实现。

He makes it clear that historically, no other project has cracked the $100 billion mark in their inaugural cycle, no matter how hyped or revolutionary. Even Bitcoin, the king cryptocurrency, failed to reach that valuation in its first cycle.

他清楚地表明，从历史上看，无论多么大肆宣传或革命性，都没有其他项目在其就职周期中破坏了1000亿美元的成绩。即使是比特币，国王加密货币也未能在其第一个周期中达到这一估值。

Furthermore, he emphasizes that the crypto landscape is now more diluted, and investors have a greater variety of options than they did in previous cycles, rendering such price targets less likely.

此外，他强调的是，加密货币景观现在更加稀释，投资者比以前的周期更有多种选择，使此类价格目标的可能性更低。

Read Also: What If SUI Captures 10% of XRP’S Market Cap? Price Math Revealed

另请阅读：如果SUI捕获了XRP市值的10％，该怎么办？价格数学揭示了

The Only Way SIV Hits $100 Billion

SIV达到1000亿美元的唯一方法

The only scenario where C-Zar sees SUI hitting a $100 billion market cap is if it gets adopted by a nation-state as part of its crypto reserves.

C-Zar认为SUI达到1000亿美元市值的唯一情况是，如果由民族国家作为加密储备金的一部分被民族国家采用。

He notes that countries like Kazakhstan have explored adding BTC and BNB to their reserves, and the U.S. reportedly holds BTC, ETH, ADA, XRP, and SOL. But SUI, being only 1.5 years old, is far too new and unproven to earn that kind of trust—at least for now.

他指出，像哈萨克斯坦这样的国家探索了将BTC和BNB添加到其储备中，据报道，美国持有BTC，ETH，ADA，XRP和SOL。但是，只有1.5岁的Sui过于新事物和未经证实的信任，至少到目前为止。

He argues that crypto projects need to survive multiple market cycles to be considered reserve-worthy. SUI might succeed in this cycle, but there are no guarantees it will be around, let alone thriving, in the next one.

他认为，加密项目需要在多个市场周期中幸存下来才能被认为是值得保留的。 Sui可能会在这个周期中取得成功，但是不能保证它会在下一个周期中，更不用说蓬勃发展了。

C-Zar is not saying SUI will crash. He’s saying that for a project with so much promise and visibility, expectations might already be stretched too far.

C-Zar并不是说Sui会崩溃。他说的是，对于一个具有如此多希望和可见性的项目，期望可能已经太远了。

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