儘管穩定的攀升超過了100,00美元，但根據長期庫存到流量（S2F）型號，比特幣（BTC）仍然有意義地低於其預計估值。

該模型的最新463天預測表明，比特幣目前應以大約260,031美元的價格交易，比目前的價格高130％以上。

Bitcoin (BTC) is still meaningfully undervalued according to the long-term Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, despite a steady climb past $110,000.

儘管穩定的攀升超過了110,000美元，但比特幣（BTC）仍然根據長期股票對流量（S2F）模型被有意義地低估了。

According to the latest 463-day forecast by the model, Bitcoin should be trading at approximately $260,031, a more than 130% premium over its current price.

根據該模型的最新463天預測，比特幣應以大約260,031美元的價格交易，超過其當前價格的130％以上。

For those unfamiliar, stock-to-flow is a ratio derived from the total existing supply of Bitcoin (stock) divided by the new issuance (flow) entering circulation through mining. It is, in essence, a measure of absolute scarcity.

對於那些不熟悉的人來說，股票與流量是從現有的比特幣（股票）總供應（股票）供應的比率，除了新發行（流）通過採礦進入循環。從本質上講，這是絕對稀缺的量度。

The orange trajectory on the model indicates that Bitcoin’s price historically gravitates toward the S2F curve over time, albeit with volatility. The closer Bitcoin tracks to this model, the more confidently one might view BTC as behaving like a commodity with predictable scarcity-driven value appreciation, akin to gold or silver.

該模型上的橙色軌跡表明，隨著時間的流逝，比特幣的價格歷史上偏向S2F曲線，儘管有波動。比特幣越來越近的比特幣軌道，越自信地認為BTC的行為就像是具有可預測的稀缺價值升值的商品，類似於黃金或銀色。

Yet at the moment, Bitcoin is trailing the model’s predicted path. This divergence has raised eyebrows but is not unprecedented.

然而，目前，比特幣正在落後於模型的預測路徑。這種差異引起了眉毛，但並非空前。

Historically, periods of underperformance versus the S2F baseline have often preceded parabolic surges, as seen during the 2013 and 2020 bull runs.

從歷史上看，如2013年和2020年公牛跑期間所見，表現不佳的時期與S2F基線經常在拋物線浪潮之前。

The current discrepancy between the S2F model and actual price suggests a significant asymmetry in sentiment versus on-chain fundamentals.

S2F模型與實際價格之間的當前差異表明，情感與鏈基本面的顯著不對稱性。

While skeptics might argue that Bitcoin is overheating, proponents of S2F view this lag as latent potential, evidence that the market has yet to fully price in the asset’s post-halving supply dynamics.

儘管懷疑論者可能會認為比特幣過熱，但S2F的支持者認為這一滯後是潛在的潛力，但證據表明，市場尚未完全以資產的備用後供應動態為代價。

Why does this matter for BTC? Because stock-to-flow is not only a technical model but a proxy for behavioral dynamics.

為什麼這對BTC很重要？因為股票流量不僅是技術模型，而且是行為動態的代理。

When Bitcoin trades below its modeled valuation, it often signals a period of consolidation, disbelief, or macro headwinds. But in the past, such gaps have presaged major upside moves.

當比特幣以低於建模的估值交易時，它通常會標誌著一段時間的合併，難以置信或宏觀阻力。但是過去，這樣的差距已經預示了重大的上升行動。

In psychological terms, these dislocations can be seen as moments of latent potential energy, times when market participants are failing to fully integrate the implications of emergent scarcity.

用心理術語來說，這些錯位可以看作是潛在勢能的時刻，當市場參與者未能充分整合新興稀缺的含義時。

This is especially relevant in a world where sovereign actors, institutions, and public companies are rapidly acquiring Bitcoin, not merely as an asset but as a hedge against systemic fragility.

在這個世界上，這尤其重要，在這個世界上，主權參與者，機構和上市公司正在迅速獲取比特幣，不僅是作為資產，而且是對系統性脆弱性的對沖。

Trump Media’s $2.5 billion Bitcoin treasury announcement is only the most recent example of this structural rotation.

特朗普媒體（Trump Media）的25億美元比特幣財政部宣布只是這種結構性輪換的最新例子。

The post Bitcoin (BTC) Still Has 130% Upside Potential, Popular S2F Model Shows appeared first on Benzinga.com.

流行的S2F模型顯示，比特幣（BTC）仍然具有130％的上行潛力，首先出現在benzinga.com上。

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