尽管稳定的攀升超过了100,00美元，但根据长期库存到流量（S2F）型号，比特币（BTC）仍然有意义地低于其预计估值。

该模型的最新463天预测表明，比特币目前应以大约260,031美元的价格交易，比目前的价格高130％以上。

Bitcoin (BTC) is still meaningfully undervalued according to the long-term Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, despite a steady climb past $110,000.

尽管稳定的攀升超过了110,000美元，但比特币（BTC）仍然根据长期股票对流量（S2F）模型被有意义地低估了。

According to the latest 463-day forecast by the model, Bitcoin should be trading at approximately $260,031, a more than 130% premium over its current price.

根据该模型的最新463天预测，比特币应以大约260,031美元的价格交易，超过其当前价格的130％以上。

For those unfamiliar, stock-to-flow is a ratio derived from the total existing supply of Bitcoin (stock) divided by the new issuance (flow) entering circulation through mining. It is, in essence, a measure of absolute scarcity.

对于那些不熟悉的人来说，股票与流量是从现有的比特币（股票）总供应（股票）供应的比率，除了新发行（流）通过采矿进入循环。从本质上讲，这是绝对稀缺的量度。

The orange trajectory on the model indicates that Bitcoin’s price historically gravitates toward the S2F curve over time, albeit with volatility. The closer Bitcoin tracks to this model, the more confidently one might view BTC as behaving like a commodity with predictable scarcity-driven value appreciation, akin to gold or silver.

该模型上的橙色轨迹表明，随着时间的流逝，比特币的价格历史上偏向S2F曲线，尽管有波动。比特币越来越近的比特币轨道，越自信地认为BTC的行为就像是具有可预测的稀缺价值升值的商品，类似于黄金或银色。

Yet at the moment, Bitcoin is trailing the model’s predicted path. This divergence has raised eyebrows but is not unprecedented.

然而，目前，比特币正在落后于模型的预测路径。这种差异引起了眉毛，但并非空前。

Historically, periods of underperformance versus the S2F baseline have often preceded parabolic surges, as seen during the 2013 and 2020 bull runs.

从历史上看，如2013年和2020年公牛跑期间所见，表现不佳的时期与S2F基线经常在抛物线浪潮之前。

The current discrepancy between the S2F model and actual price suggests a significant asymmetry in sentiment versus on-chain fundamentals.

S2F模型与实际价格之间的当前差异表明，情感与链基本面的显着不对称性。

While skeptics might argue that Bitcoin is overheating, proponents of S2F view this lag as latent potential, evidence that the market has yet to fully price in the asset’s post-halving supply dynamics.

尽管怀疑论者可能会认为比特币过热，但S2F的支持者认为这一滞后是潜在的潜力，但证据表明，市场尚未完全以资产的备用后供应动态为代价。

Why does this matter for BTC? Because stock-to-flow is not only a technical model but a proxy for behavioral dynamics.

为什么这对BTC很重要？因为股票流量不仅是技术模型，而且是行为动态的代理。

When Bitcoin trades below its modeled valuation, it often signals a period of consolidation, disbelief, or macro headwinds. But in the past, such gaps have presaged major upside moves.

当比特币以低于建模的估值交易时，它通常会标志着一段时间的合并，难以置信或宏观阻力。但是过去，这样的差距已经预示了重大的上升行动。

In psychological terms, these dislocations can be seen as moments of latent potential energy, times when market participants are failing to fully integrate the implications of emergent scarcity.

用心理术语来说，这些错位可以看作是潜在势能的时刻，当市场参与者未能充分整合新兴稀缺的含义时。

This is especially relevant in a world where sovereign actors, institutions, and public companies are rapidly acquiring Bitcoin, not merely as an asset but as a hedge against systemic fragility.

在这个世界上，这尤其重要，在这个世界上，主权参与者，机构和上市公司正在迅速获取比特币，不仅是作为资产，而且是对系统性脆弱性的对冲。

Trump Media’s $2.5 billion Bitcoin treasury announcement is only the most recent example of this structural rotation.

特朗普媒体（Trump Media）的25亿美元比特币财政部宣布只是这种结构性轮换的最新例子。

The post Bitcoin (BTC) Still Has 130% Upside Potential, Popular S2F Model Shows appeared first on Benzinga.com.

流行的S2F模型显示，比特币（BTC）仍然具有130％的上行潜力，首先出现在benzinga.com上。

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