利潤領域附近的短期比特幣持有人 - 6月中旬的價格預測

根據鏈分析師Axel Adler JR的說法，當前的短期持有人（STH）的淨未實現的盈利/損失（NUPL）指標（尤其是那些持有比特幣1到3個月的人）以27％的持續。

On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr notes that the current Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator for Short-Term Holders (STH)—those holding Bitcoin for 1 to 3 months—is at 27%.

鏈上分析師Axel Adler JR指出，短期持有人（STH）的當前淨未實現的盈利/損失（NUPL）指標 - 該持有比特幣1至3個月，為27％。

Historically, when this metric crosses the 40% threshold, it signals potential sell-offs by this cohort, which can exert downward pressure on the cryptocurrency's price.

從歷史上看，當該指標越過40％的閾值時，它標誌著該隊列的潛在拋售，這可能會對加密貨幣的價格施加向下壓力。

At the current growth rate of about 0.818 percentage points per day, the 40% level could be reached in around 16 days, projecting the key date as June 11.

以目前每天約0.818個百分點的增長率，可以在16天內達到40％的水平，預計關鍵日期為6月11日。

If this pattern continues, Adler estimates that BTC could hit a price of $162,000 by the time STH profit levels approach the 40% zone. This prediction is based on linear extrapolation and does not account for unpredictable variables such as black swan events or sudden political influence (e.g., a presidential tweet).

如果這種模式繼續進行，Adler估計，到STH利潤水平接近40％區域時，BTC可能達到162,000美元的價格。該預測基於線性推斷，並不解釋不可預測的變量，例如黑天鵝事件或突然的政治影響力（例如，總統推文）。

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At the peaks of the last four bull markets, Bitcoin saw sharp pullbacks.

在最近四個牛市的頂峰上，比特幣看到了急劇的回調。

The indicator reached levels of 47%, 44%, 66%, 47%, and 57% over the past four years, each instance followed by notable sell pressure from short-term holders.

在過去的四年中，該指標達到47％，44％，66％，47％和57％的水平，每個實例都有來自短期持有人的賣出壓力。

The current rise toward that level is being closely observed by traders who understand its potential to influence short-term price direction.

交易者了解其影響短期價格方向的潛力的交易者正在仔細觀察到目前的朝向該水平。

Key Developments Poised to Influence the Crypto Market in the Next Days

有望在接下來的幾天影響加密市場的主要發展

As it stands now, the NUPL for short-term holders is at 27%. The threshold for profit-taking historically has been around 40%.

如今，短期持有人的NUPL為27％。從歷史上看，獲利的門檻約為40％。

The required increase from the current level is 13 percentage points.

當前水平的要求增加是13個百分點。

At the projected growth rate of 0.818 percentage points per day, it would take approximately 16 days to reach the threshold, landing around June 11.

以每天0.818個百分點的增長率為0.818個百分點，大約需要16天才能達到閾值，在6月11日左右降落。

If this scenario plays out, Adler forecasts that Bitcoin could reach $162,000 by the time STH profit levels approach the 40% zone.

如果這種情況呈現出來，阿德勒預測，到STH利潤水平接近40％區域時，比特幣可以達到162,000美元。

This prediction is based on linear extrapolation and does not factor in any unanticipated events or market shifts.

該預測基於線性外推，並且不會考慮任何意外事件或市場變化。