Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Near Profit-Taking Zone – Price Prediction For Mid-June

According to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr, the current Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator for Short-Term Holders (STH)—specifically those holding Bitcoin for 1 to 3 months—stands at 27%.

On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr notes that the current Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator for Short-Term Holders (STH)—those holding Bitcoin for 1 to 3 months—is at 27%.

Historically, when this metric crosses the 40% threshold, it signals potential sell-offs by this cohort, which can exert downward pressure on the cryptocurrency's price.

At the current growth rate of about 0.818 percentage points per day, the 40% level could be reached in around 16 days, projecting the key date as June 11.

If this pattern continues, Adler estimates that BTC could hit a price of $162,000 by the time STH profit levels approach the 40% zone. This prediction is based on linear extrapolation and does not account for unpredictable variables such as black swan events or sudden political influence (e.g., a presidential tweet).

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At the peaks of the last four bull markets, Bitcoin saw sharp pullbacks.

The indicator reached levels of 47%, 44%, 66%, 47%, and 57% over the past four years, each instance followed by notable sell pressure from short-term holders.

The current rise toward that level is being closely observed by traders who understand its potential to influence short-term price direction.

Key Developments Poised to Influence the Crypto Market in the Next Days

As it stands now, the NUPL for short-term holders is at 27%. The threshold for profit-taking historically has been around 40%.

The required increase from the current level is 13 percentage points.

At the projected growth rate of 0.818 percentage points per day, it would take approximately 16 days to reach the threshold, landing around June 11.

If this scenario plays out, Adler forecasts that Bitcoin could reach $162,000 by the time STH profit levels approach the 40% zone.

This prediction is based on linear extrapolation and does not factor in any unanticipated events or market shifts.