利润领域附近的短期比特币持有人 - 6月中旬的价格预测

根据链分析师Axel Adler JR的说法，当前的短期持有人（STH）的净未实现的盈利/损失（NUPL）指标（尤其是那些持有比特币1到3个月的人）以27％的持续。

On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr notes that the current Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator for Short-Term Holders (STH)—those holding Bitcoin for 1 to 3 months—is at 27%.

链上分析师Axel Adler JR指出，短期持有人（STH）的当前净未实现的盈利/损失（NUPL）指标 - 该持有比特币1至3个月，为27％。

Historically, when this metric crosses the 40% threshold, it signals potential sell-offs by this cohort, which can exert downward pressure on the cryptocurrency's price.

从历史上看，当该指标越过40％的阈值时，它标志着该队列的潜在抛售，这可能会对加密货币的价格施加向下压力。

At the current growth rate of about 0.818 percentage points per day, the 40% level could be reached in around 16 days, projecting the key date as June 11.

以目前每天约0.818个百分点的增长率，可以在16天内达到40％的水平，预计关键日期为6月11日。

If this pattern continues, Adler estimates that BTC could hit a price of $162,000 by the time STH profit levels approach the 40% zone. This prediction is based on linear extrapolation and does not account for unpredictable variables such as black swan events or sudden political influence (e.g., a presidential tweet).

如果这种模式继续进行，Adler估计，到STH利润水平接近40％区域时，BTC可能达到162,000美元的价格。该预测基于线性推断，并不解释不可预测的变量，例如黑天鹅事件或突然的政治影响力（例如，总统推文）。

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At the peaks of the last four bull markets, Bitcoin saw sharp pullbacks.

在最近四个牛市的顶峰上，比特币看到了急剧的回调。

The indicator reached levels of 47%, 44%, 66%, 47%, and 57% over the past four years, each instance followed by notable sell pressure from short-term holders.

在过去的四年中，该指标达到47％，44％，66％，47％和57％的水平，每个实例都有来自短期持有人的卖出压力。

The current rise toward that level is being closely observed by traders who understand its potential to influence short-term price direction.

交易者了解其影响短期价格方向的潜力的交易者正在仔细观察到目前的朝向该水平。

Key Developments Poised to Influence the Crypto Market in the Next Days

有望在接下来的几天影响加密市场的主要发展

As it stands now, the NUPL for short-term holders is at 27%. The threshold for profit-taking historically has been around 40%.

如今，短期持有人的NUPL为27％。从历史上看，获利的门槛约为40％。

The required increase from the current level is 13 percentage points.

当前水平的要求增加是13个百分点。

At the projected growth rate of 0.818 percentage points per day, it would take approximately 16 days to reach the threshold, landing around June 11.

以每天0.818个百分点的增长率为0.818个百分点，大约需要16天才能达到阈值，在6月11日左右降落。

If this scenario plays out, Adler forecasts that Bitcoin could reach $162,000 by the time STH profit levels approach the 40% zone.

如果这种情况呈现出来，阿德勒预测，到STH利润水平接近40％区域时，比特币可以达到162,000美元。

This prediction is based on linear extrapolation and does not factor in any unanticipated events or market shifts.

该预测基于线性外推，并且不会考虑任何意外事件或市场变化。